EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Landy
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#561 Postby Landy » Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:39 pm

skyline385 wrote:Remember when Bonnie was in NATL and struggling to get cold cloud tops

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220703/286103a8bb3c95f68d159d6fb0c5dc93.jpg


There's no way that band is good for the storm! :eek: :lol:
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#562 Postby zzh » Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:51 pm

skyline385 wrote:Remember when Bonnie was in NATL and struggling to get cold cloud tops

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220703/286103a8bb3c95f68d159d6fb0c5dc93.jpg

Looks like it's shear induced
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#563 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:08 pm

zzh wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Remember when Bonnie was in NATL and struggling to get cold cloud tops

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220703/286103a8bb3c95f68d159d6fb0c5dc93.jpg

Looks like it's shear induced

Doubt it, it’s currently in very low shear environment

Image
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#564 Postby skyline385 » Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:11 pm

Landy wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Remember when Bonnie was in NATL and struggling to get cold cloud tops

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220703/286103a8bb3c95f68d159d6fb0c5dc93.jpg


There's no way that band is good for the storm! :eek: :lol:

Probably short term but it is expanding the moist environment around it from all that convection

Image
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#565 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:25 pm

I don’t think the band is shear induced, but often when a band has deeper convection than the core, it tends to “steal energy” or prevent the core from tightening up as quickly. I’m not really sure this is one of those cases though. The comparatively shallower convection around the core is probably just an artificial of its land interaction less than 24 hours ago. Given the organizational trends today, I wouldn’t expect RI (not that anyone has mentioned it) but I see no reason to think the steady intensification will halt
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#566 Postby zzh » Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:36 pm

skyline385 wrote:
zzh wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Remember when Bonnie was in NATL and struggling to get cold cloud tops

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220703/286103a8bb3c95f68d159d6fb0c5dc93.jpg

Looks like it's shear induced

Doubt it, it’s currently in very low shear environment

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220703/77bf40aa644d82b1b5341c65c91cbe94.gif

That shear diagnostics is not always accurate.

You can see convection fails to wrap to the east, means there's easterly shear affecting the system.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#567 Postby zhukm29 » Sun Jul 03, 2022 12:05 am

:eek:

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#568 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 03, 2022 12:37 am

That's not a CCC but close. Clear shear pattern. Easterly shear is causing that lopsided convection. Pushing it away from the center, it looks tilted on MW imagery. Not to say it's not a potentially strong TS, but that structure is going to limit it at least short term.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#569 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 03, 2022 5:33 am

That band is induced by the convergence of easterly trade winds and the northwesterlies from the gap event if I had to guess. Not fully sure if it’s partially shear related but you sometimes see bands like this in increasing shear environments IIRC.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#570 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:09 am

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#571 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:43 am

EP, 04, 2022070312, , BEST, 0, 117N, 917W, 55, 995, TS
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#572 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:11 am

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#573 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:14 am

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EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#574 Postby skyline385 » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:37 am

The big blob with the cold tops isn’t giving up, what’s the possibility of a center relocation?
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#575 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:45 am

skyline385 wrote:The big blob with the cold tops isn’t giving up, what’s the possibility of a center relocation?

Not too likely imo, the core looks well established. A few new hot towers closer to the core though, maybe those will help it try to outcompete the prominent band
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#576 Postby zeehag » Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:37 am

so this one gets to keep her name bonnie after crossover? dont they usually change names?
as for the blob, i have noticed here with ts, there is a second body or blob that makes as much mess as the actual storm. could this be same with this storm, that until it isa cane it keeps this extra body which as organization happens becomes part of the feed to center of storm? or are my observations faulty?
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#577 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:04 am

zeehag wrote:so this one gets to keep her name bonnie after crossover? dont they usually change names?
as for the blob, i have noticed here with ts, there is a second body or blob that makes as much mess as the actual storm. could this be same with this storm, that until it isa cane it keeps this extra body which as organization happens becomes part of the feed to center of storm? or are my observations faulty?

Yeah while the second blob exists it will compete with the core. I think it also has some impact on the pressure gradient by preventing the outer wind field from contracting, which would slow its intensification. However I think this stagnation phase is nearing its end. That band is weakening some, and simultaneously I’m now seeing dual hot towers around the center. It’s probably getting ready to intensify again, assuming this continues.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#578 Postby wwizard » Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:13 am

zeehag wrote:so this one gets to keep her name bonnie after crossover? dont they usually change names?
as for the blob, i have noticed here with ts, there is a second body or blob that makes as much mess as the actual storm. could this be same with this storm, that until it isa cane it keeps this extra body which as organization happens becomes part of the feed to center of storm? or are my observations faulty?


At the 22nd hurricane committee in 2000 it was decided that tropical cyclones that moved from the Atlantic to the Eastern Pacific basin and vice versa would no longer be renamed. Hurricane Otto in 2016 was the first storm to cross from one basin to another to apply under this rule. Bonnie is now the 2nd. This only applies to cyclones that remain a cyclone on the crossover.

Systems that degenerate to remnants then regenerate in another basin will get a new name, Grace becoming Marty last year. Agatha to Alex this year.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#579 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:31 am

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#580 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Jul 03, 2022 12:07 pm

Image
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