EPAC: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#641 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:48 pm

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T5.0 with LG eye surrounded W embedded LG.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#642 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 6:52 pm

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Appears to be undergoing an ERC again, which lines up with the eye contraction.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#643 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:28 pm

TXPZ25 KNES 042351
TCSENP

A. 02L (BONNIE)

B. 04/2330Z

C. 14.3N

D. 100.8W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD FILLED EYE. IN EIR IMAGERY, LG EYE
SURROUNDED BY BLACK AND EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS E-NO OF 5.0 WITH EYE-ADJ
OF -0.5, THUS A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT ARE 5.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEVINE
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#644 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:01 pm

Up to 90kt.

EP, 04, 2022070500, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1008W, 90, 974, HU
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#645 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 04, 2022 8:50 pm

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Full outer eyewall still evident but seems to be contracting some.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#646 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 9:47 pm

Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.

12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#647 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:10 pm

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#648 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:20 pm

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#649 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:38 am

cycloneye wrote:Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.

12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

Looks like they forgot to update the cone with the Major forecast
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#650 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:40 am

skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.

12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

Looks like they forgot to update the cone with the Major forecast

No the updated forecast no longer has it reaching Cat 3
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#651 Postby skyline385 » Tue Jul 05, 2022 4:45 am

ElectricStorm wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Is now forecast to reach cat 3 on Tuesday morning.

12H 05/1200Z 15.1N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

Looks like they forgot to update the cone with the Major forecast

No the updated forecast no longer has it reaching Cat 3

Oh yea, i checked the forecast discussion before making that comment and somehow thought i saw a major in there. Guess that’s what i get for being here at 5.30 AM lol
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#652 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:23 am

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#653 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:35 am

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T6.0 instantaneous DT.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#654 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:07 am


Instantaneous 6.0 one could argue major status. Sustained 6.0 cat 4.
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#655 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:13 am

TXPZ25 KNES 051206
TCSENP

A. 02L (BONNIE)

B. 05/1130Z

C. 15.1N

D. 103.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMB IN B RESULTS IN DT OF 6.0
AFTER EYE ADJ OF 0.5. MET IS 5.5 AND PT IS 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#656 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:19 am

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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#657 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:02 am

Cat 3.

EP, 04, 2022070512, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1037W, 100, 964, HU
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#658 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Jul 05, 2022 8:09 am

Makes sense with the instantaneous 6.0 with a maintained 5.0+
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#659 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:02 am

Given its progression through the ERC, I’m skeptical recon would actually find cat3 winds at this time, considering what double eye walls can do to flatten the pressure gradient. It’s understandable though since Dvorak is really all we have to go off of right now. Either way, if shear holds off long enough to let the new eye clear out there won’t be any more question that it’s a major
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Re: EPAC: BONNIE - Hurricane - Discussion

#660 Postby underthwx » Tue Jul 05, 2022 9:36 am

I noticed on the NHC forecast track, that Bonnie weakens to a TS in a few days, is this a result of cooler water?
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