ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

No doubt. And the one after that as well, they’ll have more information.

What additonal info will they have to push the track east?

The updated center fix. The last model runs had the wrong location prior to recon. But 11pm might be too early. I think if there’s going to be a shift to the east it will probably be at 5am.

[StPeteMike]

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

No doubt. And the one after that as well, they’ll have more information.

[eastcoastFL]

Still some shear.

A. 09L (IAN)

B. 24/2330Z

C. 14.9N

D. 77.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS EMBEDDED 1/3 DEG INTO A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING
IN A DT OF 3.5. MET=2.5 AND PT=3.0. STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVR W
QUAD SUGGESTING SOME SHEAR. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION
AND UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/2035Z 14.7N 76.5W SSMIS


...KONON

INIT 24/2100Z 14.3N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 14.6N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 15.7N 80.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

Ian already at 14.9N? That’s a decent N adjustment if I’m reading correctly?

Yup, it’s running right along 15N now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon just left St Croix...
anyone want to guess what pressure and wind speed will be when they arrive?
I'll say 50kts/998mb

[ScottNAtlanta]

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

No doubt. And the one after that as well, they’ll have more information.

How do you shift that?

[otowntiger]

NHC calling for hurricane winds by 2 AM Sun - gonna have to start picking up steam soon to hit that!

Yeah, don’t think that’s happening.

[johngaltfla]

Just an FYI from the Sarasota area, gas stations were insane (hitting them tomorrow), grocery stores wiped out. Word is Costco is out of everything but at BJ's Wholesale other than idiots in the gas line acting like idiots, plenty of water and canned foodstuffs for the unprepared.

Publix was W-I-L-D.

[NFLnut]

How do you shift that?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_geps_latest.png

I've heard of spaghetti models before but THAT one!

[aspen]

Ian's outflow is fantastic. The UL anticyclone has already established itself, just like the GFS and HWRF said it would. The core still needs work. I think the MLC is displaced from the most recent bursts of convection.

[Hammy]

NHC calling for hurricane winds by 2 AM Sun - gonna have to start picking up steam soon to hit that!

Yeah, don’t think that’s happening.

Forcast was for 2am was 50kt, hurricane is 2pm.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Just an FYI from the Sarasota area, gas stations were insane (hitting them tomorrow), grocery stores wiped out. Word is Costco is out of everything but at BJ's Wholesale other than idiots in the gas line acting like idiots, plenty of water and canned foodstuffs for the unprepared.

Publix was W-I-L-D.

Can report Tampa the same

Unleaded running out here and there. No water to be found anywhere

[Bocadude85]

Just an FYI from the Sarasota area, gas stations were insane (hitting them tomorrow), grocery stores wiped out. Word is Costco is out of everything but at BJ's Wholesale other than idiots in the gas line acting like idiots, plenty of water and canned foodstuffs for the unprepared.

Publix was W-I-L-D.

I definitely do not miss those days, glad I’m watching safely from Honolulu, best of luck to everyone in the path

[Hurricaneman]

Ian's outflow is fantastic. The UL anticyclone has already established itself, just like the GFS and HWRF said it would. The core still needs work. I think the MLC is displaced from the most recent bursts of convection.
https://i.imgur.com/Q8xBVZo.jpg

Seems as though that convection will wrap around and it’s go time after that

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the trough misses Ian.

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

No doubt. And the one after that as well, they’ll have more information.

How do you shift that?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_geps_latest.png

[AmandaInDestin]

Anyone thinking the cone shifts a little east at 11pm?

No doubt. And the one after that as well, they’ll have more information.

How do you shift that?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_geps_latest.png

No words for this one.

[Torgo]

NHC calling for hurricane winds by 2 AM Sun - gonna have to start picking up steam soon to hit that!

Yeah, don’t think that’s happening.

Forcast was for 2am was 50kt, hurricane is 2pm.

It is not forecast to be a hurricane until 2AM Monday.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1573823474220425216



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1573835341689036800

[Hammy]

Yeah, don’t think that’s happening.

Forcast was for 2am was 50kt, hurricane is 2pm.

It is not forecast to be a hurricane until 2AM Monday.

Looks like I've been sleeping too little

[tropicwatch]

Yeah, don’t think that’s happening.

Forcast was for 2am was 50kt, hurricane is 2pm.

It is not forecast to be a hurricane until 2AM Monday.

Tropical Storm Ian (AL092022)
Advisory #7A
36 hr Forecast
Valid at: 2:00 AM EDT September 26, 2022 (early Monday Morning)
Location: 17.4 N, -82.2 W
Maximum Wind: 75 knots (85 mph)
Wind Gusts: 90 knots (105 mph)

[Sciencerocks]