ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

It probably hasn’t weakened. I don’t think there were any direct observations that supported 45 kt. But yeah a storm remaining this anemic and wasting all this time in an ideal environment is 2022 at its finest.

If it's struggling than clearly the environment isn't ideal. Storms that have these sorts of internal issues take days and days to recover, and today it's only begun that process.

That’s the thing: the environment was forecast to be ideal — very low shear, >60-70% RH, excellent UL outflow, high OHC and SSTs, etc — but clearly the models have missed something significant that’ll impact Ian’s future track and intensity.

Yea, I'm doubting it will be a major by the time it reaches Cuba, probably somewhere in the Cat 2 area, which is great news as it will probably mean less strength when it enters the gulf. Still thinking 85mph to 100 mph at landfall.......

[Frank P]

Whats a few miles when trajectory makes a huge difference...weaker storm moving to the right, odd

Either that is a bogus vortex spinning out of control, or we have a system moving NNW to N… I have no idea what it is doing.

Frank,

Its just a really loose system, maybe a wobble, you know how these things can go.

One heck of a wobble j… I need a sip of Crown watching the sat loops…

[SFLcane]

From 11 PM advisory, NHC headline was 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...

Bit delayed I’d say.

[pgoss11]

From 11 PM advisory, NHC headline was 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...

Bit delayed I’d say.

Even they are struggling with this storm.

[fllawyer]

Yesterday’s 5pm disco projected Ian to have 70mph winds and be at 15.7N/80.3W at 18z today. 2pm advisory showed it was at 15.7N/80.0W, so seems to be slightly ahead of their track and well under the forecast winds.

[Teban54]

FWIW, the last time I saw the argument "there's clearly something that models are not seeing" was to justify how the season will be dead after Earl. We know how that turned out.

Not saying this will or will not happen to Ian.

[Hammy]

All it’s going to take is one deep sustained convective burst to put this back on track. That structure is primed

Sure nobody is denying that but the question is why hasn't it happened yet when all indicators pointed towards it, even the NHC was expecting it.

was expected to be a hurricane at 2 AM...more than 10 hours to get there still

The last two forecasts have been pushing hurricane intensity back by six hours. 11pm last night had it 65mph this morning, and reaching 80mph by 8pm tonight--presently the winds are actually down to 45--falling short of the forecast for this morning's intensity by quite a bit.

If Ian manages to reach hurricane intensity in the Caribbean it likely won't be until right before landfall in Cuba.

[otowntiger]

Yesterday’s 5pm disco projected Ian to have 70mph winds and be at 15.7N/80.3W at 18z today. 2pm advisory showed it was at 15.7N/80.0W, so seems to be slightly ahead of their track and well under the forecast winds.

. Yeah it seems to be struggling to develop any kind of intensity. I’d say very soon, if not already it’ll be behind schedule. So far Ian is very unimpressive.

[Craters]

Can anyone say what percentage of chances Ian moves even move more west by the time it arrives in the Gulf thanks in advance

I think it will. I have no expertise in meteorology but I've seen storms come into the gulf from Caribbean that kept west when it was expected to turn east. Then when it actually turns east comes to the north gulf coast. My weatherbones are howling achey and my gut always thinks storms coming to get me. Anyway I relate more to the gfs without the crack.

Okay, so it's not just me. I mean, I dismiss this sort of thing as mere meteorological paranoia, but -- after just about every 2020 Gulf storm NHC trackline pointed at my house at some point, and then Ida tried to touch me on the buttocks -- I tend to dismiss meteorological paranoia rather slowly, as in "it's about to make landfall somewhere else" slowly.

Nope. Not just you by a long shot. I adhere to this idea, as a wise poster said a little while back: If the storm is still south of you, pay attention. I'm near Houston and I'm still watching Ian like a featherless hawk. (With all due and great respect for the NHC, Wxman57, et al.)

[blp]

[tropicwatch]

Just looked at some of the non-tasked missions and it looks like they taking air samples as they go through the frontal boundary.

[toad strangler]

From 11 PM advisory, NHC headline was 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...

Bit delayed I’d say.

Ian ain’t reading the forecasts. This stuff almost never follows expectations one way or the other.

[tropicwatch]

From 11 PM advisory, NHC headline was 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2022

...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOME A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...

Bit delayed I’d say.

Ian ain’t reading the forecasts. This stuff almost never follows expectations one way or the other.

At the 2pm update they still say they forecast rapid intensification tonight.

[SFLcane]

After looking at some loops Ian is surely moving either straight north or NNW. Surely off track

[StormPyrate]

After looking at some loops Ian is surely moving either straight north or NNW. Surely off track

Is there still a resource that shows the current sat loop and forecast track overlay?

[MetroMike]

Most of the experts on Twitter seem rather quiet this afternoon, waiting for the 5pm update as to why it looks disheveled especially on IR loop if anyone can post that.

[skyline385]

Can I ask a stupid question? Been looking at the storm surge risk maps here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/
It seems like in FL especially south of Ft Myers that a major could easily inundate 5-10 miles inland if not more.
My question is how widespread could these scenarios play out? I assume this map is the absolute worst case for each point on the map if a hurricane was perfectly placed to flood it. That's why it shows flooding in TX, LA, FL all at the same time - it's not responding to a specific storm. Is there a way to visualize what kind of hurricane would create the surge needed to flood a specific place? Or theoretical flooding for a theoretical storm? This map makes it hard to estimate because it just shows hundreds if not thousands of continuous square miles flooded up and down the coast without any way to see what's realistic.

Certainly not a stupid question. Every storm is different. Saffir-Simpson category may play only a small part in surge height. That's why those maps may be somewhat less than useful. The NHC will be producing more detailed probabilistic surge maps 48 hrs from landfall. Maybe Tuesday morning. They will take into account the wind speed and, more importantly, the wind field size. As you know, there are very few mountains along the Florida coast, so a surge could travel inland quite a ways if it's 10-12 feet at the coast. That's particularly true if you're near any inland waterway which connects to the Gulf. Gotta go. Client call.

In addition to what wxman said, the storm surge map link posted above also talks about how it is modelled. They use 100,000 storms for each SLOSH grid for a given category at varying wind speed, wind radii and direction and then use that to determine surge. So it is not the absolute worst case scenario but an average estimate and surge can be worse than that predicted on the map. Now like wxman said, NHC will release detailed surge maps for each system and those are the ones to pay attention to.


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[Hammy]

Cayman radar (live loop) as an additional tool, center should be within radar range in a few hours if it keeps racing northward

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

[tolakram]

Believe it or not it's still working on fixing the environment, and over time appears to be making progress.

[skyline385]

IR still very unimpressive, convection dying off continues