ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Can anybody justify why Ian is moving almost due north right now? NNW

[Category5Kaiju]

maybe the NHC and every model will get it wrong but I am thinking a lot of these posts about how it will never develop and why is it so weak will look pretty silly in 24 hours....it has more than enough time and favorable conditions to get to Cat 4

I remember the last time NHC was firmly bullish very far out in time for a potentially dangerous storm's capacities. Some individuals doubted the NHC' forecasts, and thought the respective storm would not be able to strengthen beyond a Cat 3... but as we all know now, such doubts aged like milk.

That storm...was 2021's Hurricane Ida.

[aspen]

Would be great if Ian never gets it’s act together.

There’s a decent chance that happens. Then the models would pretty much lose all credibility this year…but then again, they still haven’t been great — everything about Bonnie, so many August phantoms, Euro correcting to the GFS’s tracks, nothing developing Fiona until it was 48 hours away from being named, etc

[Nimbus]

Can anybody justify why Ian is moving almost due north right now? NNW

Recon is heading in now, looks like a Bee line for the tip of Cuba but could be a stair step.

[jlauderdal]

Can anybody justify why Ian is moving almost due north right now? NNW

Yes, it found a path of least resistance, probably short term, too much recon in the system now for a large-scale change to happen without them knowing it in advance.

[CFLHurricane]

That looked like a fairly substantial North jog on vis!

The GFS hates this one trick!

But seriously, I think this storm is bamboozling a lot of conventional cyclone wisdom and needs to be watched until the very end. The track so far is favoring the east side of the cone and I’d it expect it to continue with the extended struggle.

[skillz305]

5pm should be interesting. Wonder if they nudge the cone eastward, per TVCN.

[Jelmergraaff]

Of course premature, but near the center there's a tower poping lower than -80 Celsius. Not seen yet if I'm right. Who knows...

[skyline385]

Can anybody justify why Ian is moving almost due north right now? NNW

very likely a temporary jog or wobble, I doubt most systems follow the NHC forecast to a line...

[CronkPSU]

5pm should be interesting. Wonder if they nudge the cone eastward, per TVCN.

absolutely...not too much but if trends continue then a bigger move at 11PM

[SteveM]

A hint of convection starting to burst near the centre. Let's see if that does anything.

[Coolcruiseman]

maybe the NHC and every model will get it wrong but I am thinking a lot of these posts about how it will never develop and why is it so weak will look pretty silly in 24 hours....it has more than enough time and favorable conditions to get to Cat 4

I remember the last time NHC was firmly bullish very far out in time for a potentially dangerous storm's capacities. Some individuals doubted the NHC' forecasts, and thought the respective storm would not be able to strengthen beyond a Cat 3... but as we all know now, such doubts aged like milk.

That storm...was 2021's Hurricane Ida.

I've seen mention of WIlma if I recall on this thread. Was that storm not in the same general area when it intensified 100 mph in 24 hours once it got the act together?

[SFLcane]

Can anybody justify why Ian is moving almost due north right now? NNW

very likely a temporary jog or wobble, most systems don't follow the NHC forecast to a line...

Obviously no tc travels in a straight line lol but that’s a heck of a wobble.

[Hammy]

maybe the NHC and every model will get it wrong but I am thinking a lot of these posts about how it will never develop and why is it so weak will look pretty silly in 24 hours....it has more than enough time and favorable conditions to get to Cat 4

I remember the last time NHC was firmly bullish very far out in time for a potentially dangerous storm's capacities. Some individuals doubted the NHC' forecasts, and thought the respective storm would not be able to strengthen beyond a Cat 3... but as we all know now, such doubts aged like milk.

That storm...was 2021's Hurricane Ida.

I've seen mention of WIlma if I recall on this thread. Was that storm not in the same general area when it intensified 100 mph in 24 hours once it got the act together?

Neither of those systems were even remotely close to struggling with convection the way Ian is. In fact Wilma formed deep within in a West Pacific-esque monsoon trough.

[ScottNAtlanta]

What seems to be missing with Ian is a good circular outflow pattern. Other than the SW end there really isn't much established outflow. Mission 11 is in the air to go investigate Ian

[Blown Away]

5pm should be interesting. Wonder if they nudge the cone eastward, per TVCN.

NHC normally subtle changes, but the GFS cave and the current N movement of Ian E of the 11am track, maybe they are a bit more aggressive.

[tolakram]

I remember the last time NHC was firmly bullish very far out in time for a potentially dangerous storm's capacities. Some individuals doubted the NHC' forecasts, and thought the respective storm would not be able to strengthen beyond a Cat 3... but as we all know now, such doubts aged like milk.

That storm...was 2021's Hurricane Ida.

I've seen mention of WIlma if I recall on this thread. Was that storm not in the same general area when it intensified 100 mph in 24 hours once it got the act together?

Neither of those systems were even remotely close to struggling with convection the way Ian is. In fact Wilma formed deep within in a West Pacific-esque monsoon trough.

WILMA OCT 17


WILMA OCT 18


Every storm has to start somewhere. Ian was blasted by Fiona's outflow for days. If this was just now forming the conversation might be different.

[Teban54]

What seems to be missing with Ian is a good circular outflow pattern. Other than the SW end there really isn't much established outflow. Mission 11 is in the air to go investigate Ian

Funny enough, its outflow was actually great about 24 hours ago when the circulations weren't stacked yet.

[Hammy]

Wonder if they'll drop the peak intensity to mid-range Cat 3. Given we're in late September and we're going to have frontal interaction that wasn't present with more recent years this time of year, this won't have the opportunity to strengthen all the way to the coast.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm waiting for that one big convection bomb near the center...it's coming, just a matter of when.