ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5541 Postby typhoonty » Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 am

jlauderdal wrote:
typhoonty wrote:There is exactly 1 perfectly legitimate criticism to have with NHC and it’s not intensity or track. And I say this as someone who expected a landfall in southwest Florida since the storm passed closer than expected to the Isle of Youth and noticing how it was moving east of track Sunday because it looked like crap.

They should’ve put Charlotte and Lee County under a hurricane watch on Sunday Night and not left it from Englewood North. For a few reasons.

1) the Fort Myers market is Charlotte Lee and Collier counties. By not including any county in our DMA under a watch the media severely downplayed the risk potential even given our chances of getting storm surge we’re always higher than Tampa Bay since it was moving north of Marco island unlike Irma. Further 90% of all watches for Lee County in my lifetime start and end at Bonita beach because that’s where the NWS TBW CWA ends. It just didn’t seem worth the risk to not include them.

2) they issued hurricane watches and warnings at 11pm Tuesday and 5AM Wednesday for Charlotte and Lee respectively. Lee County in their infinite stupidity didn’t issue any voluntary or mandatory evacuations until 7AM Wednesday. That was too late for many people. Less than 18 hours before tropical storm force winds start. Not even for the barrier islands. They would have evacuated earlier if we were under a hurricane watch on Sunday as we should’ve been.

3) Irma happened and went east of populated Lee and Collier. So very few got the life threatening storm surge that was advertised. People thought this was another Irma.

I can’t tell you how many people stayed in zone A because they “have a steep driveway “ or evacuated from Zone A to Zone B. I am willing to bet every dollar I have that over 100 people died because very few evacuated. My godmother stayed 1 mile south of Cape Coral yacht club in zone A. I begged and pleaded her to come with me, but she said it was another Irma. I have yet to hear from her since 5pm and also know people who had to vertically evacuate to a second floor. Many did not have that luxury.

The NHC did a FANTASTIC job on the meteorology overall. They did not realize how catastrophic from a social science perspective not issuing a hurricane watch would be for the fort Myers media market Sunday night.


The NHC should never issue watches/warnings based on anything other than their criteria and it's really a very simple criteria. When you start making exceptions(like for DMA or anything else) then you lose consistency and then you lose trust. Your beef is with the government and that's fine. Complacency is always a concern but that's on the citizens. We live in a high-risk area for hurricanes, the media is very good about telling people not to focus on the line. If people stayed in an evacuation zone, tough. Even your grandmother had a warning and she decided to stay and that's ok, she makes her own decision. I have never evacuated but I also have the means to get to my roof and I am at 6.2 ft above sea level. We must stop blaming NHC, government, media and anyone else other than ourselves for preps and ultimately our actions. There is more than ample info when these storms come in.


Just because the media says don’t look at the center of the cone doesn’t mean that people don’t end up looking at the center of the cone. They do. Look at my post history. I brought it up before. The southwest Florida DMA has been hit by 3 major hurricanes before today in the last 18 years. None of them have produced a catastrophic surge event for anything other than barrier islands. This was the first storm where the populated mainland received any significant surge.

I agree that the NHC should be consistent but they were not if you look purely at wind probs graphics they waited until fort myers had over a 50% chance of hurricane conditions while they issued it for englewood when it was 30%.

Also if you are such a meteorological purist that you don’t believe that discretion should ever be used by someone making a watch for the Public for anything other than meteorology then that’s your perogative. Meteorology has been trying to work with social scientists to incorporate this into their messaging for years.

NHC is a government agency that works for the public and not meteorologists. I know my hometown, I know the triggers. They would’ve issued evacuation orders for Charlotte Lee and collier had they issued the watch. They did not and it cost two days of gradual ramp up in evacuations.

The decision cost lives. You cannot change my opinion. It is fact. Widely reported by many media that more Tampa residents were prepared than Fort Myers. We were always in the cone but again, despite everyone saying it a billion time to not focus on the dot, they focus on the dot. Even my mom focuses on the dot and her house got annihilated.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5542 Postby LARanger » Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:11 am

FLLurker32 wrote:People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.


C'est, literally, la vie.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5543 Postby Stangfriik » Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:38 am

It may be my eyes playing tricks on me but I swear as soon as the center hit the cape, it turned more north and is riding the coast according to radar. Can anyone confirm?
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5544 Postby birdwomn » Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:39 am

FLLurker32 wrote:
Beachside wrote:
FLLurker32 wrote:
Some just don’t believe it or leave no matter what. When it was projected for Tampa I had to beg my cousin to leave St.Pete and she was in a mandatory evacuation zone with a 1 year old. She just didn’t understand what storm surge is. :double:

My inlaws live in a low lying area of St. Pete. We begged them to leave for two days, and they resisted, but finally came to stay with us yesterday. So, of course, today, we heard about 73 times how they never should have left.

Next time, I can almost guarantee they won't leave. No matter the forecast.


I told my mom this same thing earlier. Next time she almost certainly won’t leave. Instead of just counting her blessings that it changed and she lucked out.


That is sad to me. Pinellas county was very fortunate, yet again. Each storm is different and you need to make an educated decision about your home and your situation each time. Perhaps you should discuss all of the best and worst case scenarios when things are calmer and have a plan that will work for them so that they are not making emotional decisions in the moment? I know that is what works for me and my family. It is very difficult to worry about family members - especially your parents, so my heart goes out to you.
Last edited by birdwomn on Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5545 Postby underthwx » Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:48 am

Good morning all.....I continue my concern for everyone affected by Ian, and I hope today will bring blue skies, and a calm wind....I have a vested interest in Florida, with family in Jacksonville, and all of you...I hope all is well there too...for those who may suffer loss of homes and other possessions, I too know that pain and uncertainty today may bring to you....life is precious, sometimes mother nature sees fit to throw her worst at us, but I'm confident that all of you in the great state of Florida will emerge from this disaster in style......here's to all of you, take care of yourselves, and each other...be well
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5546 Postby LARanger » Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:59 am

Hammy wrote:Model data has been available to the public since at least 1999 because I was using it on various public sites that far back.


Thank you. I vividly recall obsessing over models for Katrina (2005), and have a much more vague recollection of something like spaghetti (but with few strands compared to today) possibly being on TV for Georges (1998).

The SFWMD's plot design certainly resembles something from the early-to-mid 1990s, though it appears they were using the basic style for rendering NHC text output before they began plotting model outputs on it. The earliest *model* plot I can find is 2002, with NHC plots going back to circa 1998.

It's possible these were distributed via other electronic means prior to that . . . e.g. a listserv . . . but I probably just lost half the audience or more by referring to things being distributed by "electronic" techniques other than the web.

https://web.archive.org/web/20021225164 ... plots.html
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5547 Postby SecondBreakfast » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:24 am

FLLurker32 wrote:
RevanTheJedi96 wrote:
FLLurker32 wrote:
I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.


Yeah no way should anyone trust the government to censor hurricane model data lol


Prior to the last maybe 10 yrs or so, the model data wasn’t widely shared. Not sure how keeping professional tools with the professionals = censorship. Most professions have tools they don’t share with the general public.


Might be out of my element here, but as a professional biologist and two years into a pandemic, I personally would never trust the government “professionals” to manage access to data/modeling. We knew in January 2020 that we were going to have big big problems and look what happened. We knew their testing/sampling methods were not going to work. An academic lab in the PNW that had population samples and an assay working and so *knew* it was already widely circulating. They alerted the FDA, and instead of listening they brought the hammer down on the lab. This was one month before bodies started piling up in refrigerated trucks in my neighborhood and people died in their apartments waiting for help.

Open source data and science for all. I am not a meteorologist but gave my brother a heads up (9/21 I told him to prepare) thanks to you all here. He’s never been through a hurricane until this one. He knows I’m a weather nerd and he spent the weekend prepping his house for flooding and he’s under a flash flood emergency now. He sent me video of his new French drain gushing water out to the street that would have been in his living room. The issue isn’t data access it’s science communication.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5548 Postby edu2703 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:25 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5549 Postby Ronel2020 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:28 am

Kind of an odd morning along the SC Coast (I’m in Charleston). Wind has been blowing out of the NE for a couple of days. This morning, the wind is already 25-30. The Edisto Buoy is already recording 12’ waves. And it’s 65 degrees. This certainly does not “feel” like hurricane weather.

Next couple of days will be interesting. We are moving into a flood tide cycle and the tides are already running 1-2’ above predicted. The timing of landfall here will be critical for the barrier islands. Certainly expect some coastal flooding. Hopefully, the wind shear will keep Ian at bay and not allow the storm to tap into the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Ian paid a visit to my family in Orlando last night … and will be stopping by our house tomorrow. Hopefully, he will be retired shortly thereafter.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5550 Postby hiflyer » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:36 am

Daytona Beach airport down to 29.45 with 60+ kt gusts on the north side of IAN. Might be sniffing the Gulf Stream.

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5551 Postby kronotsky » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:43 am

FLLurker32 wrote:
gailwarning wrote:
FLLurker32 wrote:
I just went back and looked at the NHC archives for good measure. The landfall point was not only in the cone but the coastal regions were under tropical storm warnings/hurricane watch by 5am EST Monday when the NHC started issuing them for the peninsula. A few things to consider:
1) Responsibility regarding adequate measures and adherence to NHC forecasts lay on the emergency response efforts within the specified county.
2) Until the day comes that we’ve somehow mastered every variable within the environment, there will always be a cone of error.
3) The NHC already does appearances on tv to explain how the cone works and the risks, they do videos with every update to explain the same - at some point there has to be responsibility on the local govt, local Mets and individuals to make sure they’re both seeking out the information and/or sharing it.

I agree it’ll be studied and has room for improvement, same as any other area of science.


I'm beginning to think NHC should just stick to the cone and forget about showing a track. The public just doesn't seem to get it. I was on a FB page Tues and a woman was claiming they weren't even in the cone that morning and had no time to prepare. I had to go back to Fri Sept 23 and screenshot the thing to prove to her they had been in the cone for days. Why the heck aren't folks who live in vulnerable areas taking the responsibility upon themselves to pay attention and to know how to prepare? Why, in 2022, with the best communications our species has ever had, still having to pluck people off roofs? It's easy to blame NHC, but rarely warranted in the larger scheme of things. Those are the larger questions.


I think it goes beyond that. Folks on this board aren’t going to like me saying this and as much as it pains me to say it - They need to buckle down on who has free for all access to model data and on Mets regularly sharing that data with the average Joe. People are too over inundated right now with data they simply don’t know how to properly analyze.


If the goal is to increase trust in the NHC's official forecast, I think this would accomplish the opposite of that. Most people are probably not poring over internet dialogues about the storm, but many would be suspicious if they heard the government was restricting access to forecasting data.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5552 Postby kassi » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:54 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5553 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:58 am

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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5554 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:01 am

typhoonty wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
typhoonty wrote:There is exactly 1 perfectly legitimate criticism to have with NHC and it’s not intensity or track. And I say this as someone who expected a landfall in southwest Florida since the storm passed closer than expected to the Isle of Youth and noticing how it was moving east of track Sunday because it looked like crap.

They should’ve put Charlotte and Lee County under a hurricane watch on Sunday Night and not left it from Englewood North. For a few reasons.

1) the Fort Myers market is Charlotte Lee and Collier counties. By not including any county in our DMA under a watch the media severely downplayed the risk potential even given our chances of getting storm surge we’re always higher than Tampa Bay since it was moving north of Marco island unlike Irma. Further 90% of all watches for Lee County in my lifetime start and end at Bonita beach because that’s where the NWS TBW CWA ends. It just didn’t seem worth the risk to not include them.

2) they issued hurricane watches and warnings at 11pm Tuesday and 5AM Wednesday for Charlotte and Lee respectively. Lee County in their infinite stupidity didn’t issue any voluntary or mandatory evacuations until 7AM Wednesday. That was too late for many people. Less than 18 hours before tropical storm force winds start. Not even for the barrier islands. They would have evacuated earlier if we were under a hurricane watch on Sunday as we should’ve been.

3) Irma happened and went east of populated Lee and Collier. So very few got the life threatening storm surge that was advertised. People thought this was another Irma.

I can’t tell you how many people stayed in zone A because they “have a steep driveway “ or evacuated from Zone A to Zone B. I am willing to bet every dollar I have that over 100 people died because very few evacuated. My godmother stayed 1 mile south of Cape Coral yacht club in zone A. I begged and pleaded her to come with me, but she said it was another Irma. I have yet to hear from her since 5pm and also know people who had to vertically evacuate to a second floor. Many did not have that luxury.

The NHC did a FANTASTIC job on the meteorology overall. They did not realize how catastrophic from a social science perspective not issuing a hurricane watch would be for the fort Myers media market Sunday night.


The NHC should never issue watches/warnings based on anything other than their criteria and it's really a very simple criteria. When you start making exceptions(like for DMA or anything else) then you lose consistency and then you lose trust. Your beef is with the government and that's fine. Complacency is always a concern but that's on the citizens. We live in a high-risk area for hurricanes, the media is very good about telling people not to focus on the line. If people stayed in an evacuation zone, tough. Even your grandmother had a warning and she decided to stay and that's ok, she makes her own decision. I have never evacuated but I also have the means to get to my roof and I am at 6.2 ft above sea level. We must stop blaming NHC, government, media and anyone else other than ourselves for preps and ultimately our actions. There is more than ample info when these storms come in.


Just because the media says don’t look at the center of the cone doesn’t mean that people don’t end up looking at the center of the cone. They do. Look at my post history. I brought it up before. The southwest Florida DMA has been hit by 3 major hurricanes before today in the last 18 years. None of them have produced a catastrophic surge event for anything other than barrier islands. This was the first storm where the populated mainland received any significant surge.

I agree that the NHC should be consistent but they were not if you look purely at wind probs graphics they waited until fort myers had over a 50% chance of hurricane conditions while they issued it for englewood when it was 30%.

Also if you are such a meteorological purist that you don’t believe that discretion should ever be used by someone making a watch for the Public for anything other than meteorology then that’s your perogative. Meteorology has been trying to work with social scientists to incorporate this into their messaging for years.

NHC is a government agency that works for the public and not meteorologists. I know my hometown, I know the triggers. They would’ve issued evacuation orders for Charlotte Lee and collier had they issued the watch. They did not and it cost two days of gradual ramp up in evacuations.

The decision cost lives. You cannot change my opinion. It is fact. Widely reported by many media that more Tampa residents were prepared than Fort Myers. We were always in the cone but again, despite everyone saying it a billion time to not focus on the dot, they focus on the dot. Even my mom focuses on the dot and her house got annihilated.


My recommendation would be to have an impact cone and update it every 6 hours, peeps can make their own decision(a majority of people evacuating don't need to per evacuation orders, they do because they are scared of living without power, there are way too many people evacuating) and govt agencies can issue evacuation orders which by the way have absolutely no teeth.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5555 Postby kassi » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:03 am

Iceresistance wrote:


What was it? The twit is gone

I don't understand why it won't post. I just watched it again and it's definitely there, but won't post here. It's a video of rescues on the Good Morning America page. You can search it @gma

I have no idea why it won't let me post it.

Edit: I can watch it because I haven't left the page, but when I tried to like it (it already had likes and retweets), it said it had been deleted. No idea why. I could even see it on here right after I posted it. Sorry, guys.
Last edited by kassi on Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5556 Postby Sturmreiter » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:06 am

galaxy401 wrote:Any updates from Sanibel? (The island itself, not the user I mean)


Pretty bad ... a portion of the causeway is gone ...

https://twitter.com/TB_Times/status/1575412089203658754
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5557 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:09 am

Sturmreiter wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Any updates from Sanibel? (The island itself, not the user I mean)


Pretty bad ... a portion of the causeway is gone ...

 https://twitter.com/TB_Times/status/1575412089203658754




Fixed the Tweet, Sanibel is cut off from the rest of Florida. :(
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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5558 Postby kassi » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:12 am

It's up again. I'm going to try this again.

 https://twitter.com/GMA/status/1575455124008353794


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Re: ATL: IAN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5559 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:27 am

I just shocked how lenient the moderators are being today with all this bashing that has been going on, I'm just completely surprised.

On to Ian, this storm is just catastrophic and will be one for the history books.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5560 Postby Old-TimeCane » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:28 am

canebeard wrote:
Abdullah wrote:
canebeard wrote:This strange looking funnel type cloud was shot in Davie, Florida (Broward County) just before dark last night in outer band of Ian. Damage was occurring under this to homes and shopping centers.

https://i.imgur.com/Bwts2r4.jpg


That's not a tornado?


I think it is; it just looked unconventional, with all it's rough edges. Below are storm reports posted from SPC for that time.

2323 2 S COOPER CITY BROWARD FL 2603 8027 RADAR TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS) CONFIRMS TORNADO. (MFL)
2351 2 SW HOLLYWOOD BROWARD FL 2601 8019 RADAR TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS) CONFIRMS TORNADO. (MFL)



Not doubting that there was a tornado, but that picture is not one. That's a shelf cloud.
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