ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

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ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2024 3:51 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from
Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande
to Boca de Catan.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Texas and northeastern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches and warnings may be required tonight and on Tuesday.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system
is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is
forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico
into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven




Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of
the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a
central pressure near 1001 mb. The system currently does not have
the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection
is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about
200-250 n mi northeast of the center. The various global models
forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the
western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is
required at this time. Thus, advisories are being initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

The initial motion is 345/6. This general motion should continue
for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic
motion due to center reformation. After that, the cyclone is
expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side
of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast. This
should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h.
While there are differences in details due to the disorganized
nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on
this general scenario.

The global models suggest that some deepening of the central
pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the
system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone. Based on
that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening.
There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the
large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a
tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this
possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in
about 36 h. However, there is a chance the system will never
become a tropical cyclone.

Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and southeastern Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over
portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port
O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 20.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2024 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...SYSTEM FORECAST TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING
IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...620 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2024 9:52 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING
IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 93.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
southward to Puerto de Altamira.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.



Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Satellite images show the large spinning low pressure area centered
over the Bay of Campeche, with lots of convective banding noted
over Yucatan. While dropsondes from an earlier Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter survey mission showed that the pressure had
fallen to about 999 mb, there are still no signs of a well-defined
center, with multiple smaller circulations within the larger gyre.
Thus, the low remains a potential tropical cyclone for this
advisory.

The system has been moving northward at about 6 kt. This general
motion should continue for a day or so, followed by a
west-northwestward turn due to a mid-level ridge building over the
northern Gulf Coast, bringing the low near northeastern Mexico
in a couple of days. The model guidance is in good agreement on
this track, and little change was made to the previous forecast,
with the latest NHC track lying a bit north of the model consensus.

While the low pressure area remains quite broad, a fair number of
the regional hurricane models are suggestive that low could
eventually contract in a low-shear, very warm water environment.
This isn't too difficult to believe as the overall circulation
looks better organized than earlier today, but will likely take
some time to strengthen due to the sprawling nature of the
disturbance. Model guidance has trended upward since the last
cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the
last one.

It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the
low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains,
moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north
of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the aclimatologically large and asymmetric
area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
Central America into northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over
portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port
O’Connor, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 20.8N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1200Z 21.6N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/0000Z 22.6N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 19/1200Z 23.2N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 20/0000Z 23.5N 96.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 20/1200Z 23.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/0000Z 23.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 18, 2024 4:58 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 93.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor
southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.




Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The system has not become better organized over the past few hours,
with limited central deep convection and the strongest thunderstorm
activity near the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. The cloud pattern is
still not classifiable via the Dvorak technique. ASCAT
scatterometer data indicated that the inner circulation was still
not well organized, with a broad area of light winds near the
estimated center. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center
it will continue to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone.
An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate
the system later this morning to assess whether the circulation is
becoming better defined.

Although there is significant uncertainty in the center location,
my best guess of initial motion is northward near 5 kt. This
general motion is likely to continue into tonight, followed by a
gradual westward turn due to a mid-level ridge building over the
northern Gulf Coast. On this track, the center will be near
northeastern Mexico by late Wednesday. The official forecast track
is slightly south of, and a bit faster than, the previous one and
close to the latest model consensus.

Based on NOAA buoy data, the intensity remains near 35 kt. The
system has a large upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern
associated with it, and is situated over warm waters with light
vertical shear. These conditions would favor strengthening but the
lack of a well-defined inner core is inhibiting intensification.
Assuming that the inner circulation becomes better established
during the next day or so, some increase in strength is forecast up
to landfall.

It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the
low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains,
moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north
of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric
area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across
Central America into northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning this morning and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Wednesday over
portions of the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect, and over portions of northeastern
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 21.3N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/1800Z 22.0N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/0600Z 22.7N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 19/1800Z 23.2N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 20/0600Z 23.3N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/1800Z 23.5N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 18, 2024 7:04 am

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 92.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 18, 2024 9:56 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING
TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 92.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES



Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The disturbance's overall envelope is becoming slightly better
defined, although there is still no evidence that a well-defined
center of circulation has developed. Deep convection is increasing
somewhat near the estimated center, but the most widespread
activity is blossoming farther north over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. The system is still being designated as a potential
tropical cyclone with 35-kt winds, and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is currently surveying the system's wind
field to assess its structure.

The disturbance is moving generally northward, or 005/6 kt,
although the centroid of the cloud pattern suggests it may have
jogged east a bit. A continued slow motion is expected through
tonight as the system gradually consolidates, but a turn toward the
west with an increase in forward speed is forecast Wednesday and
Wednesday night due to a mid-level ridge building southwestward
over the southeastern United States. The updated NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one during the first 24 hours,
but is then a bit faster after that, trending toward the HCCA and
TVCA consensus aids.

The system's broad nature will continue to inhibit significant
strengthening despite otherwise conducive environmental conditions.
Global model fields suggest the circulation will tighten up and
develop a well-defined center on Wednesday while the system
approaches the coast of Mexico. Intensification becomes more of a
possibility at that point, and gradual strengthening is forecast on
Wednesday while the system approaches the coast.

It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the
low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains,
moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north
of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric
area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher
terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast beginning today and continuing through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight or
Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of Port O’Connor
and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 21.8N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0000Z 22.5N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/1200Z 23.0N 95.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/0000Z 23.3N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 20/1200Z 23.3N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 18, 2024 1:01 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...DISTURBANCE REMAINS LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 18, 2024 3:45 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 92.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
Texas coast to San Luis Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.




Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Air Force Reserve and scatterometer data show that the disturbance
consists of a large northwest-to-southeast-oriented circulation
with a 150-250-n mi wide area of light winds and a broad minimum in
pressure. The scatterometer data also revealed that the strongest
winds--30 to 35 kt--are located about 360 n mi north of the
estimated center. With the continued lack of a well-defined center
and little central convection, the system is still being designated
as a potential tropical cyclone at this time.

The system is moving generally northward, or 360/5 kt. A mid-level
ridge over the eastern United States is forecast to build
southwestward, forcing the disturbance to turn westward and
accelerate toward the coast of Mexico tonight and on Wednesday.
The model trackers appear to be too fast relative to the model
fields themselves. As a result, the NHC official track forecast is
slower than deterministic and consensus trackers, and brings the
center of the system to the coast of Mexico in about 36 hours.
This could still be a little fast since the global models have the
center just offshore of Mexico at that time.

Global model fields suggest that the circulation will gradually
consolidate over the next 24 hours, and the center could be well
defined enough by then to designate the system as a tropical
cyclone. Even if that occurs, only modest intensification is
forecast before the center reaches land due to the continued broad
nature of the circulation. The most aggressive intensity models
peak the intensity between 40-45 kt, and the NHC forecast is within
that range.

Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a
large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely
in areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila and
Nuevo Leon, including the city of Monterrey.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight or
Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass
and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 22.1N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/0600Z 23.3N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE MEXICO COAST
48H 20/1800Z 23.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 18, 2024 7:04 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL, COASTAL FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 92.8W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 18, 2024 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL, COASTAL FLOODING AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira.




Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Satellite images show little change with the low during the past
several hours. Air Force Reserve dropsonde data indicate that the
strongest winds remain hundreds of miles north of the center, with a
large area of lighter winds in the circulation center. While
there has been some increase in convection near the estimated
center, the system still doesn't meet the requirements of a tropical
cyclone. The official designation of a named storm or not is
almost academic at this point, with almost all of the significant
hazards well north of the center.

The system has turned northwestward tonight at about 6 kt. A
mid-level ridge over the eastern United States is forecast to build
southwestward, forcing the disturbance to turn westward and
accelerate toward the coast of Mexico overnight and on Wednesday.
Guidance has trended southward since the last advisory, and the
official track forecast is nudged that way.

Global models continue to suggest that the circulation will
gradually consolidate over the next 24 hours, and transition to a
tropical storm is shown then. Only modest intensification is
forecast before the center reaches land due to the continued broad
nature of the circulation. Little change was made to the previous
wind speed forecast.

Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a
large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely
in areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila and
Nuevo Leon, including the city of Monterrey.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin overnight or on
Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass
and along portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico within the
Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 22.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/1200Z 22.7N 94.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 20/0000Z 22.8N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/1200Z 22.9N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0000Z 23.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
60H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: PTC-ONE - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 19, 2024 4:49 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 93.8W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dropsonde observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation of the system is
gradually becoming better defined. However, the central convection
remains rather meager and the system's cloud pattern is still not
classifiable via the Dvorak technique. Therefore the disturbance
still does not meet the requirements of a tropical cyclone and will
continue to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone at this
time. Nonetheless, since the system appears to be on its way to
developing a well-defined center, it is expected to become a
tropical cyclone later today. This also suggested by simulated
satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models that depict
increasing and organized deep convection near the center as it
nears the coastline.

The system is turning westward and the current motion is around
285/7 kt. A mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from a
strong high over the eastern United States should force the
disturbance to move on a westward path with increasing forward
speed. The track model guidance and model consensus are in good
agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is
similar to the previous NHC track, albeit a bit faster.

The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt based on
non-elevated surface observations over the Gulf. Environmental
conditions, such as warm SSTs and low vertical shear, appear to
favor some intensification before landfall. However, the inner
circulation is likely to remain somewhat broad, limiting
strengthening. The official intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one and in good agreement with the statistical-dynamical
Decay-SHIPS guidance.

Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a
large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal
flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center
along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, north across northeastern
Mexico and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce
considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed
river flooding. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely
in and near areas of higher terrain across the Mexican states of
Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas, including the cities of
Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through midweek.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 22.7N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/1800Z 22.7N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 20/0600Z 22.7N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/1800Z 22.7N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 19, 2024 9:50 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 95.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
and NOAA buoy 42055 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico indicate
that the system has developed a well-defined center of circulation.
In addition, deep convection has formed near the center, as well as
within a band extending 200 n mi to the southeast of the center.
This convection is classifiable via the Dvorak technique. The
system meets the necessary requirements of being a tropical cyclone
and is therefore being designated as Tropical Storm Alberto.
Aircraft and surface observations suggest the maximum winds remain
about 35 kt, but the central pressure has dropped to about 995 mb
according to the dropsonde data. Some of the dropsonde and oil
rig data in the northwestern Gulf indicate that stronger winds are
located not too far above the ocean surface, but the environment
appears too stable for sustained winds of that magnitude to mix
efficiently down to the surface. Still, this could mean that gusty
winds affect much of South Texas as the convective activity moves
inland through the day.

Alberto may have jogged a bit south now that a more defined center
has become apparent, but the general motion remains westward, or
270/8 kt. This westward motion is expected to continue for the
next day or two while mid-level ridging over the eastern U.S.
builds westward, and the track models all agree that the center of
Alberto should be inland over northeastern Mexico by this time
Thursday morning.

Alberto has a chance to strengthen within a favorable environment
of low vertical shear and warm sea surface temperatures of about 30
degrees Celsius. However, the broad circulation will still likely
limit the amount of strengthening that can occur, and the NHC
forecast continues to show a peak intensity of 40 kt before the
storm reaches land. There is some possibility of slight
strengthening beyond that level, as suggested by the GFS and HAFS-B
models. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast on Thursday.
A 36-hour forecast point as a remnant low is shown mostly for
continuity, but in all likelihood the system will have dissipated
over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by then.

Regardless of Alberto's exact track, this system will have a large
area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and
tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly,
the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the
chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because
of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the
northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the
coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 22.2N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 22.3N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0000Z 22.4N 101.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 19, 2024 12:52 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
100 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...ALBERTO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST ALONG
THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 95.1W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 19, 2024 3:53 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...ALBERTO'S CENTER EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO EARLY
THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES



Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

There hasn't been much additional data to help assess the structure
of Alberto since the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
departed the system a few hours ago. However, recent satellite
images and data from NOAA buoy 42055 suggest that the center may
have re-formed a bit to the southwest since this morning. Another
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this evening. For now, the maximum winds remain 35 kt.

Because of the re-formation of the center, the recent motion has
been west-southwestward, or 250/8 kt. However, Alberto is expected
to resume a westward motion and speed up over the next 24 hours as
a mid-level ridge over the eastern U.S. builds westward. The track
guidance is in good agreement that Alberto's center will reach the
coast of Mexico early Thursday, and the NHC track forecast is close
to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA models. Some slight strengthening
is still possible through tonight while Alberto remains over water,
and the NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity of
about 40 kt. The circulation could dissipate over the mountains of
Mexico as soon as 24 hours from now, but for continuity a 24-hour
forecast is provided with dissipation shown at 36 hours.

More importantly, because of Alberto's large size, it will continue
to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico regardless of its exact track. It is worth
noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of
strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of
Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 21.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 19, 2024 6:53 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...ALBERTO'S CENTER EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO EARLY
THURSDAY...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 19, 2024 9:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...ALBERTO STRENGTHENING...
...HEAVY RAINS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 95.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Alberto is gradually becoming better organized this evening.
Satellite and microwave imagery shows a band curving around the
southern side of the center near areas of deep convection. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating the
storm measured surface wind speeds of 43 kt and peak flight-level
winds of 61 kt, with a much smaller radius-of-maximum winds than the
previous mission. The intensity is set to 45 kt.

The recent storm motion is generally westward at 8 kt. Model
guidance insists Alberto will continue westward and accelerate as a
ridge centered over the eastern United States builds over the area.
The track guidance remains tightly clustered and predicts the
center of the storm will reach the coast of Mexico overnight. Prior
to moving inland, there is still a possibility that Alberto will
slightly strengthen. The forecast now shows the storm dissipating
over the mountains of Mexico in 24 hours.

It is important to understand that Alberto is a large system and
continues to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico far from the storm center. It is also worth
noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of
strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.


Key Messages:

1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of
Texas and northeastern Mexico.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.

3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected overnight along portions
of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 21.5N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 21.7N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 20, 2024 4:27 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...ALBERTO NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STARTING TO SUBSIDE FOR THE TEXAS
COAST, BUT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 97.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 20, 2024 9:48 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 99.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: ALBERTO - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 20, 2024 3:46 pm

Last advisory.

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Alberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO HAS DISSIPATED...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 102.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
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