ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2024 4:06 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...DEBBY'S CENTER CREEPING INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Surface observations and satellite imagery suggest that Debby's
circulation has become stretched out to the north and south, but
the center appeared to make landfall around 0600 UTC in the Bulls
Bay area of South Carolina. A shield of moderate to heavy rain has
spread northward into North Carolina, while a trailing band of deep
convection is located offshore the coast of South Carolina. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission that concluded around
midnight measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 55 kt and SFMR
winds of 40-45 kt well east of the center, and the current
intensity is therefore estimated to be 45 kt.

Debby's center has not yet made much headway into South Carolina
since the initial motion is northwestward (325 deg) at only 4 kt.
A strengthening ridge over the Atlantic should start giving Debby a
push to the north today, with the center of the cyclone moving
across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina through
tonight. A deep-layer trough over the Upper Midwest should then
cause Debby to turn northeastward and accelerate over the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and then
over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. No significant changes were made
to the NHC track forecast compared to the one in the previous
advisory.

Debby is expected to continue weakening as the center moves farther
inland, and global model fields suggest that winds near the coast
should fall below tropical storm force, with the cyclone becoming a
depression, by this afternoon or evening. Model phase-space
diagrams, and the convective pattern in simulated satellite
imagery, then indicate that Debby will merge with a cold front and
become extratropical over the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. Debby
is shown to be dissipated by day 4 based on continuity from the
previous forecast, but it is possible that an area of low pressure
could continue eastward over the north Atlantic for a few more days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable flooding impacts
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Northeast through
Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts today.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely along portions of
the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 33.2N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/1800Z 34.2N 80.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0600Z 36.3N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1800Z 40.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/0600Z 44.5N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 10/1800Z 48.7N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/0600Z 51.6N 58.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2024 11:01 am

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Debby continues to move farther inland with the center now located
over northern South Carolina. Surface observations and radar data
indicate that the strongest winds are likely occurring near the
coast and just offshore of southern North Carolina. The highest
sustained winds during the past couple of hours from reliable
surface observation sites are near 30 kt with higher gusts. Based
on the decreasing observed wind speeds, the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. By far, the most significant
threat with Debby continues to be flash flooding from heavy
rainfall.

Debby is starting to accelerate toward the north-northwest, with the
current motion estimated at 345/9-kt. A ridge that is currently
strengthening over the western Atlantic will cause Debby to
accelerate northward, moving across central North Carolina this
evening. Then, a deep-layer trough will approach the Great Lakes
region on Friday, which will cause Debby to accelerate northeastward
over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Friday and Friday night and
then over Atlantic Canada on Saturday. There are only minor changes
to the track forecast, hedging toward the latest consensus models.

Debby should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and most
of the models indicate that the winds near the coast should decrease
a bit more later today. Debby is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression by this afternoon or evening. Model phase space diagrams
show that Debby should complete transition to an extratropical
cyclone in about 24 to 30 h. The current satellite imagery shows
that Debby is already starting to interact with the jet stream,
which extends toward the east-northeast over the North Atlantic.
Debby is now expected to complete extratropical transition in about
24 h as the cyclone merges with a cold front while over the
mid-Atlantic states. Beyond Friday, models show a post-tropical
Debby becoming extremely elongated along the cold front, which will
eventually lead to dissipation. The new NHC forecast has Debby
dissipating Sunday morning, but that could occur sooner.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally
catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and Northeast through Saturday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for several more hours in
the Tropical Storm Warning area along the coast of northeastern
South Carolina and portions of North Carolina.

3. Coastal flooding due to storm surge is likely to continue along
portions of the North Carolina coastline for several more hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 34.5N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0000Z 35.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1200Z 38.7N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0000Z 42.8N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1200Z 47.0N 69.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0000Z 50.7N 61.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2024 4:03 pm

Last NHC advisory.



Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Debby continues to move farther inland and the center is now
located over south-central North Carolina. The storm continues to
produce heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia,
with the major flood threat continuing in those areas. Surface
observations indicate that winds along the North Carolina coast and
offshore have decreased, and based on that data, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Debby a tropical depression.
Although the sustained winds have decreased, there could still be
some gusts to tropical-storm-force along portions of the North
Carolina coast for a few more hours.

The system is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the
north or north-northeast and a significant increase in forward
speed are expected. This motion will take Debby, or its
remnants, across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the
next day or so. Debby is likely to complete extratropical
transition tonight or on Friday and dissipate in a couple of days.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on Debby. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/exces ... ok_ero.php

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally
catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and Northeast through Saturday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 35.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2024 9:51 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 27
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 80.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM NNE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 27
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 80.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM NNE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 09, 2024 4:32 am

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number 28
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TODAY FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 79.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF DANVILLE VIRGINIA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 09, 2024 12:12 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number 29
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT EXISTS TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.7N 77.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NE OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WSW OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 09, 2024 4:46 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number 30
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT
LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNE OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF BURLINGTON VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 09, 2024 9:46 pm

Is the last advisory by WPC.

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number 31
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC...
...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING AS DEBBY MOVES
RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.3N 71.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF MONTREAL QUEBEC
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NE OF BURLINGTON VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 39 MPH...63 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
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