ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 98, 2024081000, , BEST, 0, 115N, 365W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al742024 to al982024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982024.dat

[Woofde]

I'm thinking this storm will be a big ACE producer. Its about the right time for the basin to wake up, and the MJO is swinging through.

As for land impacts, thats a big question. We've seen many times a storm orginally projected to curl out to see ends up more west. That said MDR storms usually do curl away if they develop early. If I was forced to guess I'd say impacts in the Carribean, curls very close to Outer Banks and finally impacts Atlantic Canada. That seems to bee the theme for storms like these in the last 5 years. Who knows though, its been a while since we've had a major hurricane hit on the Atlantic side of the US.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm thinking this storm will be a big ACE producer. Its about the right time for the basin to wake up, and the MJO is swinging through.

As for land impacts, thats a big question. We've seen many times a storm orginally projected to curl out to see ends up more west. That said MDR storms usually do curl away if they develop early. If I was forced to guess I'd say impacts in the Carribean, curls very close to Outer Banks and finally impacts Atlantic Canada. That seems to bee the theme for storms like these in the last 5 years. Who knows though, its been a while since we've had a major hurricane hit on the Atlantic side of the US.

I’m just hoping it stays away from NYC, at the very least while it’s still a strong hurricane.

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[cycloneye]

[aspen]

Tagged a little earlier than I thought it would. The first HWRF/HAFS model runs tomorrow should be interesting.

I think this is all but guaranteed to impact the NE Caribbean (St Kitts, Antigua/Barbuda, St Martin, Virgin Islands, PR, and DR) next week. Beyond that, who knows.

[hipshot]

Tagged a little earlier than I thought it would. The first HWRF/HAFS model runs tomorrow should be interesting.

I think this is all but guaranteed to impact the NE Caribbean (St Kitts, Antigua/Barbuda, St Martin, Virgin Islands, PR, and DR) next week. Beyond that, who knows.

I can't spot the LLC, is there one there. Nice to have and Ascat.

[Beef Stew]

I'm thinking this storm will be a big ACE producer. Its about the right time for the basin to wake up, and the MJO is swinging through.

As for land impacts, thats a big question. We've seen many times a storm orginally projected to curl out to see ends up more west. That said MDR storms usually do curl away if they develop early. If I was forced to guess I'd say impacts in the Carribean, curls very close to Outer Banks and finally impacts Atlantic Canada. That seems to bee the theme for storms like these in the last 5 years. Who knows though, its been a while since we've had a major hurricane hit on the Atlantic side of the US.

I agree fully. As of now, it’s reminding me of similar tracks we’ve seen that scrape through the northern Caribbean (greater Antilles/southern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos/etc) and then recurve outwards or go on to impact Atlantic Canada. That being said it’s still early August- there’s a lot that can happen as this storm evolves that could potentially result in it being further west, and I’m not yet entirely sold
on troughing saving the day for the eastern seaboard.

One thing that really stands out to me- if I’m not mistaken, the Southeast US coast hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane in nearly 20 years- the last was Jeanne in 2004. If we look outside of Florida, the drought is even longer- Fran (North Carolina) was the last non-FL landfall in 1996. South Carolina hasn’t seen one since Hugo in 1989, and Georgia- well, Georgia’s dodged the bullet time and time again and hasn’t had a major landfall in a whopping 126 years, since the Georgia Hurricane of 1898.

I’m certainly not saying Ernesto will be the one to break the favored climatological path of a recurve and snap any of these droughts- but it’s going to happen one day, and with this season appearing to have a more western component to it thus far, I’m not jumping to any conclusions about any storms until things are much more solidified.

[CrazyC83]

I don't like the looks of this at all. This definitely has my attention.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm thinking this storm will be a big ACE producer. Its about the right time for the basin to wake up, and the MJO is swinging through.

As for land impacts, thats a big question. We've seen many times a storm orginally projected to curl out to see ends up more west. That said MDR storms usually do curl away if they develop early. If I was forced to guess I'd say impacts in the Carribean, curls very close to Outer Banks and finally impacts Atlantic Canada. That seems to bee the theme for storms like these in the last 5 years. Who knows though, its been a while since we've had a major hurricane hit on the Atlantic side of the US.

I agree fully. As of now, it’s reminding me of similar tracks we’ve seen that scrape through the northern Caribbean (greater Antilles/southern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos/etc) and then recurve outwards or go on to impact Atlantic Canada. That being said it’s still early August- there’s a lot that can happen as this storm evolves that could potentially result in it being further west, and I’m not yet entirely sold
on troughing saving the day for the eastern seaboard.

One thing that really stands out to me- if I’m not mistaken, the Southeast US coast hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane in nearly 20 years- the last was Jeanne in 2004. If we look outside of Florida, the drought is even longer- Fran (North Carolina) was the last non-FL landfall in 1996. South Carolina hasn’t seen one since Hugo in 1989, and Georgia- well, Georgia’s dodged the bullet time and time again and hasn’t had a major landfall in a whopping 126 years, since the Georgia Hurricane of 1898.

I’m certainly not saying Ernesto will be the one to break the favored climatological path of a recurve and snap any of these droughts- but it’s going to happen one day, and with this season appearing to have a more western component to it thus far, I’m not jumping to any conclusions about any storms until things are much more solidified.

Was Florence a major when it went into NC? I forgot it weakened before it went in

[sasha_B]

Was Florence a major when it went into NC? I forgot it weakened before it went in

Hurdat has it as a 80kt Cat 1 at landfall, albeit below 960hPa

20180914, 1115, L, HU, 34.2N, 77.8W, 80, 956, 170, 150, 140, 90, 100, 80, 80, 60, 70, 60, 60, 40, 25

[Beef Stew]

I'm thinking this storm will be a big ACE producer. Its about the right time for the basin to wake up, and the MJO is swinging through.

As for land impacts, thats a big question. We've seen many times a storm orginally projected to curl out to see ends up more west. That said MDR storms usually do curl away if they develop early. If I was forced to guess I'd say impacts in the Carribean, curls very close to Outer Banks and finally impacts Atlantic Canada. That seems to bee the theme for storms like these in the last 5 years. Who knows though, its been a while since we've had a major hurricane hit on the Atlantic side of the US.

I agree fully. As of now, it’s reminding me of similar tracks we’ve seen that scrape through the northern Caribbean (greater Antilles/southern Bahamas/Turks and Caicos/etc) and then recurve outwards or go on to impact Atlantic Canada. That being said it’s still early August- there’s a lot that can happen as this storm evolves that could potentially result in it being further west, and I’m not yet entirely sold
on troughing saving the day for the eastern seaboard.

One thing that really stands out to me- if I’m not mistaken, the Southeast US coast hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane in nearly 20 years- the last was Jeanne in 2004. If we look outside of Florida, the drought is even longer- Fran (North Carolina) was the last non-FL landfall in 1996. South Carolina hasn’t seen one since Hugo in 1989, and Georgia- well, Georgia’s dodged the bullet time and time again and hasn’t had a major landfall in a whopping 126 years, since the Georgia Hurricane of 1898.

I’m certainly not saying Ernesto will be the one to break the favored climatological path of a recurve and snap any of these droughts- but it’s going to happen one day, and with this season appearing to have a more western component to it thus far, I’m not jumping to any conclusions about any storms until things are much more solidified.

Was Florence a major when it went into NC? I forgot it weakened before it went in

Florence was originally forecast to make landfall as a 140 mph category 4 in NC in the early NHC advisories. It was one of the most bullish NHC outputs I remember ever reading for a landfall that far in advanced. As fate would have it, however, Florence ended up getting stuck in a nearly endless cycle of EWRC’s and would encounter far more dry air and shear towards the coast than originally anticipated, and “only” made landfall as a category 1 when all said and done. However, the rainfall and surge brought by Florence much more resembled that of a major hurricane than a category 1 due to her large wind field and slowing to a crawl near landfall.

[weeniepatrol]

Looking at 10N 40W

Shows up well on GFS analysis

[IsabelaWeather]

Lots of intense convection getting going. Definitely have a bad feeling about this storm with using Beryl as a bellwether... Really starting to look a little ominous at this early point.

[Teban54]

Definitely looks like taking shape:

[weeniepatrol]

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased some in association
with a tropical wave located roughly halfway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early
to mid part of next week while the system approaches and then moves
near or over the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecast to continue
moving generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of
the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[al78]

It is ominous to me the way these forecast tracks have the common factor of barrelling across the Caribbean islands and heading towards the vicinity of Florida and the GOM. Although it is early days there are some similarities with 2004. We will want that to change soon otherwise it could end up a very destructive season.

[mantis83]

It is ominous to me the way these forecast tracks have the common factor of barrelling across the Caribbean islands and heading towards the vicinity of Florida and the GOM. Although it is early days there are some similarities with 2004. We will want that to change soon otherwise it could end up a very destructive season.

this looks to recurve around 70w, so that is a change from beryl and debby, as troughing in the west atlantic is more prominent this time around....

[SFLcane]

It is ominous to me the way these forecast tracks have the common factor of barrelling across the Caribbean islands and heading towards the vicinity of Florida and the GOM. Although it is early days there are some similarities with 2004. We will want that to change soon otherwise it could end up a very destructive season.

this looks to recurve around 70w, so that is a change from beryl and debby, as troughing in the west atlantic is more prominent this time around....

fyi 2004, 2017 had recurving storms really not surprising at all. Model show the ridge rebuilding after 98L moves out just in time for peak.

[tropicwatch]

Thinking they will go with a PTC sometime today. Models have it approaching the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm on the 13-14th.