ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see this reform further
south.

[Frank P]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see this reform further
south.

I’m never surprised by anything that can happen in the tropics. Nature tends to make a fool of all of us.

[Hurricane2022]

Thhat vigorous MLC is quickly becoming displaced from the LLC. I'd say we may see a "new" storm coming soon.

[Javlin]

LLC definitely looks like its getting tugged WSW closer to the MLC, though it still has a ways to go, but definitely an improvement in organization compared to what it looked like yesterday

Definitely see that happening and it's not going to GA but straight into Big Ben area also got a hot tower going close to the LLC

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Yeah, I saw the same thing, if it can get some more wsw motion going for it a TD or named system is possible.

Latest frames look back to W but the cloud structure is looking NE to SW

[tropicwatch]

The lowest pressures being reported now are along the gulf coast Clearwater:
Conditions at CWBF1 as of
(8:48 pm EDT on 07/15/2025)
0048 GMT on 07/16/2025:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 220 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.2 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.2 m/s
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1013.3 mb
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 6 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 20 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 7 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
NOS Water Level Observation Network Water Level
To Apalachicola:
Conditions at APCF1 as of
(8:48 pm EDT on 07/15/2025)
0048 GMT on 07/16/2025:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 310 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 2.1 m/s
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.4 mb
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 31.1 °C
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 1 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 20 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 1 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
NOS Water Level Observation Network Water Level
And in the gulf:
Conditions at 42036 as of
(7:50 pm CDT on 07/15/2025)
0050 GMT on 07/16/2025:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NW ( 310 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 4.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 5.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 0.7 m
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 4 sec
5-day plot - Average Wave Period Average Period (APD): 3.8 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): WNW ( 302 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.0 mb
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.2 °C
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 30.1 °C
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 24.7 °C
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 28.6 °C
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 4 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 20 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 4 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[Stratton23]

Javlin its tough to tell , their are several circulations here, the LLC heading toward georgia, the MLC is definitely about to over the gulf, and another little swirl west of key west, not sure what that one is though

[jaguars_22]

Ya Stratton I been watching that small swirl all day down by the keys… anyone know what that is?

[Tailgater33]

Ya Stratton I been watching that small swirl all day down by the keys… anyone know what that is?

It’s not at the surface, most prevalent at the 750mb level, but as you say it’s been there most of the day.

[lovingseason2013]

If the energy that is being released as lightning in the outer band just offshore of Pensacola is any indication of what is stored in the Gulf, this thing may have a surprise in store for the Gulf Coast.

[psyclone]

What a forecast fail here locally....a hastily issued flood watch, a 100% chance of rain and not a drop for many areas. Pretty much because our system ended up north of prior estimates... which ultimately bodes poorly for future development prospects.

Well my prior assessment did not age well. heavy showers are breaking out locally and our little disturbance continues to look interesting. the shelf water along the north gulf is flash fuel so you never know if something might happen

[HurricaneBelle]

What a forecast fail here locally....a hastily issued flood watch, a 100% chance of rain and not a drop for many areas. Pretty much because our system ended up north of prior estimates... which ultimately bodes poorly for future development prospects.

Well my prior assessment did not age well. heavy showers are breaking out locally and our little disturbance continues to look interesting. the shelf water along the north gulf is flash fuel so you never know if something might happen

Outflows are colliding and I just picked up 1.10 inches in about 15-20 minutes in NE Clearwater.

[Nederlander]

Looking at radar, the LLC looks to be about 20-30 miles south of St. George Island

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Steve]

Looking at radar, the LLC looks to be about 20-30 miles south of St. George Island

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Isn’t that the front running ULL or at a higher level?

[Steve]

Because if that’s not a rotating LLC there’s no way the “center” could be south of Franklin Co already unless it’s re-consolidating there.

[TomballEd]

Looking at radar, the LLC looks to be about 20-30 miles south of St. George Island

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It isn't far enough from land to do anything quickly. If the MLC is offshore in 36-48 hours, it could do as ~half of the 18Z Euro ensembles suggests and generate a TD when near SE Louisiana. Whether it gets a number or not, a lot of rain will fall in Southern Louisiana.

[Stratton23]

the MLC is already offshore, the one thats still over land is the LLC

[Steve]

the MLC is already offshore, the one thats still over land is the LLC

Word that’s what I was thinking. But I wasn’t discounting a reformation.

[Stratton23]

Steve i really wouldnt be shocked to see a reformation closer to the MLC, Convection has and is still persistent over the MLC, will be interesting to see what the hurricane hunters find tommorow

[LarryWx]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93):
Surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure
continues to move westward across the Florida Panhandle and is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity mainly south
of its center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward,
and could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to
north-central portion of the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana
by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental
conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could still form over the
next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end
of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today.
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by your local National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

93K looks to be in a bit of a mess with 2 rotations one over the coast of Florida and one to the south west over the Gulf which is in line of what the models have been showing with the southern cyclonic moving north and taking over as been the main center.

GEOS-19 GeoProxy + Radar Blend