ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[GCANE]

Convection is mainly driven by some shear with a 4000 CAPE infeed.
Anticyclone is to the east of the convection.
Good equator-ward outflow.
Watching closely.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is this one will spin up right as it reaches the Louisiana coastline. HAFS-A portrays a realistic scenario.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1945406289313775976

[wxman57]

MLC has moved rapidly west to south of the western FL Panhandle. That's where all the convection is concentrated, and that's where to look for any LLC. That convection will be moving inland early tomorrow, so development chances have dropped way down. Looking like only 3-5" of rain across south LA and southern MS. Next!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93):
Surface and radar observations indicate that a broad area of low
pressure is moving westward across the Florida Panhandle between
Tallahassee and Panama City. The associated shower and thunderstorm
activity is disorganized and located mainly south and southwest of
the center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward, and
could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central
portion of the Gulf later today or tonight, reaching the coast of
Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore,
environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable
for additional development, and a tropical depression could still
form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully
inland by the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today.
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[BobHarlem]

Doesn't look like much will happen today with it, maybe as it gets closer to Louisiana. All the models keeping it in the general area and looping it back into the gulf in a week or so are wild though. And that keys thing is still there.

[LarryWx]

I now think that the prior 40% chance for TCG from 93L is now down to closer to 20%. But about everything has become a TC so far this season. So, we’ll see.

[cycloneye]

The low pressure is inland in the Panhandle per 12z best track.

AL, 93, 2025071612, , BEST, 0, 303N, 849W, 25, 1012, DB

[tropicwatch]

The low pressure is inland in the Panhandle per 12z best track.

AL, 93, 2025071612, , BEST, 0, 303N, 849W, 25, 1012, DB

https://i.imgur.com/yKuLegH.png

Possibly elongated stretching out south of Panama City.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-85.50,28.02,2184

[GCANE]

That convection off Mexico Beach looks interesting.

[MGC]

Low is still moving inland and should decay away today. Chance that a new surface low might develop near the MLC. Still a lot of shear over the Gulf. Something to keep an eye on. Good thing the surface low went inland yesterday......MGC

[BobHarlem]

First decent visible loop highlights the area around PCB (close to best track) and the MLC south of Mobile (with lightning to match). Very detached right now. This and the main blob is going to be over Louisiana later today at this rate.

[Tailgater33]

The area south of PCB is the area to watch IMO. Watching the radar closely and earth link

[Stormlover70]

Like wxman57 said. Next. No big deal. 5 inches of rain no wind. Polk County here in florida got 11.47 inches the other night.

[Hurricaneman]

My feeling is we have to wait until August for the next one, this one will most likely not reform offshore

[Wampadawg]

My feeling is we have to wait until August for the next one, this one will most likely not reform offshore

I think this thread is on life support and the plug is almost pulled

[Wampadawg]

Well I am moving from Houston to Lafayette the end of the month so I image my future is bright for tracking storms

[GCANE]

I think we have something just offshore.
29.8N 85.9W

[jaguars_22]

This almost looks like a gyre system we would get down into Central America?? Huge swirl of spin rotating around each other... The one by the keys looks to still have it.. the one on land florida panhandle... another one south of pensacola

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1945503262708584504