EPAC: INVEST 99E - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

99E INVEST 250728 1800 9.9N 100.2W EPAC 25 1009

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep992025.dat

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico are
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of
this week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10
to 15 mph remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent

[ElectricStorm]

GFS has been consistent in showing this remaining on the weaker side. Develops slowly and moves too far north for it to get strong. Will probably need to develop quickly to have a chance to become a hurricane.

The 0/30 AOI behind it might be a better candidate for something strong if the GFS is correct.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about
500 miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A trough of low pressure located about 500 miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico
has become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the
system moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

is getting organized and is close to TD status.

[cycloneye]

West-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southwestern
coast of Mexico have become a little better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward around 15
mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Current structure doesn't support quick intensification.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a tropical depression to me. Well, define LlC.

[cycloneye]

Maybe an upgrade?

EP, 99, 2025073100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1134W, 25, 1007, DB