ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

[LarryWx]

Now that the GFS has finally caved, the JMA is now about the lone holdout of the major globals and is consistent with the last two days of its 12Z (extended) runs. The 12Z has it near 26N, 75W, or ~100 miles NE of the central Bahamas as a 994 mb high end TS . It is just then moving WNW to NW and starting a recurve. Regardless, it doesn’t appear to be a safe recurve for the US E coast.

With the JMA now being the lone main operational global outlier and with very few members like this from the major ensemble runs, this is very likely wrong. I remember times when it was a far left outlier and ended up dead wrong.

[cycloneye]

The first hurricane model runs for this invest. Later tonight, we will have HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HMON, HWRF among others.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS with a minimal hurricane in the subtropics.

[BobHarlem]

First earlies for 96L

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS takes it right over Bermuda as a significant hurricane. Peaks at 961mb this run, though not much development in the near term

[BobHarlem]

6z gfs strengthens it and goes west of Bermuda then clips Nova Scotia and goes into Newfoundland. 0z Euro was still weak and well east of Bermuda. Canadian and icon are also well east of Bermuda.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z JMA once again refuses to recurve 96L. It keeps it weak (TDish) and it hits ~Vero Beach, FL, as a 1011 TD at 192 (8/15). Due to ridging to its N, it is moving mainly W and toward the Gulf. This is a far left outlier, which sometimes is the case for the JMA.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF makes 96L a minimal hurricane as it goes OTS.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS develops late into a hurricane while doing some loops and later it goes NE.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if it gets that far in intensity.