ATL: ERIN - Models

[Hurricaneman]

18zGFS is farther south on this run, has a short WSW movement late tomorrow into Tuesday which it didn’t have in previous runs

[StormWeather]

18zGFS is farther south on this run, has a short WSW movement late tomorrow into Tuesday which it didn’t have in previous runs

So is the GFS catching up to other trends? How is the high pressure ridge?

[Hurricaneman]

A bit stronger but still a bit on the weaker side as far as the ridge is concerned

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET for the record:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 39.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.08.2025 60 18.0N 39.9W 1009 30
1200UTC 13.08.2025 72 17.8N 43.8W 1008 26
0000UTC 14.08.2025 84 19.0N 46.2W 1009 30
1200UTC 14.08.2025 96 20.5N 50.1W 1009 30
0000UTC 15.08.2025 108 21.9N 53.0W 1008 32
1200UTC 15.08.2025 120 23.3N 55.9W 1006 36
0000UTC 16.08.2025 132 24.4N 57.9W 1005 43
1200UTC 16.08.2025 144 25.5N 59.8W 1004 46
0000UTC 17.08.2025 156 26.7N 60.8W 1002 48
1200UTC 17.08.2025 168 28.2N 61.2W 998 52

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS much closer to Bermuda this run, but still east of it. Also avoids Canada entirely.

[Stratton23]

Im thinking in terms of ridge strength that the Euro AIFS has the best handle on this as the Euro actually caved toward the AIFS with a stronger bermuda high, the GFS is too weak with the bermuda high, but it did shift SW more, and that can matter big tine down the road if this ends up more SW or a WSW motion

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS seems to still be on the eastern most ensembles, I’m thinking west shifts still to come

[eastcoastFL]

almost all models swing this well east of the coast.this storm is done as far as affecting the US coast........next!

Famous last words...That's a story we've seen a million times over the years. Way too soon for an all clear.

maybe, but models only get better as we get closer in time. fwiw, the 6z euro aifs swipes the carolinas, but thats waaaay north of 0z which was in the gulf, trends continue

True if you have well defined center and you're about 5 days out. But 10 days out with an unnamed invest we are still in the guessing game.

[Jr0d]

This storm will really test the EURO AI model. It has been the left/outlier pretty much every run. If it is correct about this storm being a serious CONUS threat it will really show the potential of using AI in weather models, if not it will just mean that AI isn't there...yet. Of course even a theoretical perfect model will have error due to incomplete or even bad input data.

Hopefully for now the AI model will need improvements and more time to mature and this will end up going out to see and we avoid a costly natural disaster.

We are still several days away from recon data being fed into the models, with the upper air missions being crucial. Until then incomplete data will make an accurate forecast a crap shoot and even with recon data it still is for anything a week away, with slightly better odds.

[sasha_B]

The 12z AI-Euro today had a rapidly intensifying hurricane in the Bahamas between +168～240h followed by a landfall at around 950 hPa in South Carolina (and given the model's low spatial resolution compared to the non-AI globals and the regional hurricane models, its outputs tend to have a weaker bias). As the previous user mentioned, this will be a real test of the model's capabilities, given its recent pattern of forecasting tracks well to the left of those shown by most models. Regardless of its performance on track, though, there's an emerging consensus that 97L has the potential to be a very strong tropical cyclone & it is far too early to say anything like "fish storm" (especially considering that impacts to Cabo Verde are currently ongoing). Its quick pace of organisation + northward movement over the past 24 hours does suggest the possibility of an early recurve, but as the longitudinally elongated AoI on the NHC's graphics indicates, doesn't confirm anything about long-range track just yet.

[BobHarlem]

18z Euro AI. It also goes through the Bahamas and over Nassau (again), and winds up in South Carolina, just a bit north of Charleston this time. Then goes inland a bit and straddles the coastline all the way to Cape Cod. Behind this one, it shows another Hurricane entering the Bahamas.




Third image shows it east of Canada, and two other systems, one west of Bermuda, and one starting to strengthen (heads into the Southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos as a hurricane) as well as two more potential MDR waves east of that.

[cycloneye]

It will certainly be a important period to see how the Euro AIFS does as it has been different from other models, in other words, it will be a big test to see the effectinness or on the other hand, will fail the test.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AI Euro sticking to its robotic guns. We'll see if that actually ends up verifying.

[Stratton23]

Euro AIFS ensemble 18z is in, and its a near 50/50 split with half the members getting into the gulf, and the other half affecting the SE US coast somewhere

[lsuhurricane]

Euro AIFS ensemble 18z is in, and its a near 50/50 split with half the members getting into the gulf, and the other half affecting the SE US coast somewhere

Is that a substantial trend westward from the 6 and 12z ensembles for the AIFS?

[cycloneye]

The 00z run of the models. HAFS A-B and HMON go up to cat 4.

[CrazyC83]

It begs the question - how does the environment right now compare to that in the early days of Irma? Is the ridge so strong that it can drop it down in latitude considerably?

[TomballEd]

Euro AIFS ensemble 18z is in, and its a near 50/50 split with half the members getting into the gulf, and the other half affecting the SE US coast somewhere

Pictures?

I think AI is constantly learning, whether it is close or 1000 miles wrong, it should learn from this and be a smidge better next time.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1954726572927099211

[Fancy1002]

The 00z run of the models. HAFS A-B and HMON go up to cat 4.

https://i.imgur.com/trACEWi.png

https://i.imgur.com/xmztqMP.png

They are also two of the lowest models in latitude, interesting. I wish they went out farther timewise.