ATL: ERIN - Models

[WeatherBoy2000]

The gfs is slightly further south and moderately weaker on approach to the western Atlantic this run, both of these factors may mean it won't feel the weakness as much (less quick of a recurve). Goes to show that slight changes in the short term could mean sizably different outcomes.

[AxaltaRacing24]

it’ll recurve this run, but compare this to the 18Z yesterday and look at the trend.

Compared to the 00Z, 06Z and 12Z runs of the GFS today by 120+ hours, that is a huge trend southwards.

been saying it all week, but when models enter a storm in or near the herbert box 12-7 days out, the chances of a east coast hit (albeit low), are greater than 0%. there’s lots of room for error until thursday. it still needs to be watched

[StormWeather]

it’ll recurve this run, but compare this to the 18Z yesterday and look at the trend.

Compared to the 00Z, 06Z and 12Z runs of the GFS today by 120+ hours, that is a huge trend southwards.

been saying it all week, but when models enter a storm in or near the herbert box 12-7 days out, the chances of a east coast hit (albeit low), are greater than 0%. there’s lots of room for error until thursday. it still needs to be watched

I’ve been thinking for the last day or so that I’m not completely sold on a recurve. I’ve been thinking on a more south and slightly weaker but still intense solution.

[Stratton23]

the trough thats supposed to capture and turn erin out to sea is starting to trend east more and is quicker to exit the picture, that could potentially mean Erin doesn’t get captured, and with the bermuda high and the SE ridge trending a bit stronger, the threat to a us landfall is most certainly growing somewhat

[StormWeather]

the trough thats supposed to capture and turn erin out to sea is starting to trend east more and is quicker to exit the picture, that could potentially mean Erin doesn’t get captured, and with the bermuda high and the SE ridge trending a bit stronger, the threat to a us landfall is most certainly growing somewhat

That is concerning, but we will have to wait and see another few days.

[Fishing]

When Hugo hit (Charleston) I seem to remember two different systems that basically pulled it in here. Low pressures? Wish I could remember.


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[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1955037268785156183

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While I still feel confident in Erin missing the USA, I think the threat to the Bahamas is growing based on the latest trends. If we get another major SW shift like that, Erin could end up in the Turks and Caicos.

[BobHarlem]

A few 18z GEFS ensembles over the Caribbean islands, they weren't there before. Extents have shifted SW, but are more clustered, still most recurve.

[Keldeo1997]

EURO AI with a SW and W shift barely missing the USA

[hohnywx]

I counted 6 of 30 (20%) 12Z GEFS members hitting the Conus. I’m not worried about it and am pretty optimistic the U.S. will not be hit, especially considering the current 17.4N latitude so far E in the MDR. But though still small, 20% is the highest since at least 6Z of yesterday fwiw. Likely will go back down later runs of today.

Larry, going back a while at this point, but I believe you had data showing how a WSW movement in the MDR greatly increased the chance of U.S. impacts? I tried searching but came up empty.

Yes, I remember doing that study. The reason for this appears to be that when there’s a strong enough E Atlantic/Azores high to cause WSW motion in the E MDR, it often teleconnects with less protection for the Conus from steering than usual for a TCG in the E Atlantic.

I’d like to find the actual details. Examples of E Atlantic WSW motion that hit the Conus include:
-#6 of 1893
-#4 of 1928
-#4 of 1947
-#2 of 1952
-#6 of 1964
-Hugo of 1989
-Isabel of 2003
-Ivan of 2004

Note though that these were all S of 16N and almost all S of 15N when they made their WSW motion.

(Irma of 2017’s WSW motion was W of 40W)

Thank you! Very interesting info.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1955042801244139539

[StPeteMike]

It will be interesting to see the 0z and then the models the next few days. Trough looks to be weaker this run and the ridge builds back in faster. Previous runs showed a good day or so for the ridge to work back in once Erin starts turning N, this run shows it almost immediately working back in… hinting at a stronger ridging. Like I said, we shall see the next few days on the trough and ridging to really get a grasp. I wouldn’t rule out CONUS yet.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Decent shift south on the HAFS-A/B through 5 days. Not the greatest models for track but does illustrate Erin could be a powerful hurricane in 5 days time.

[Hurricane2022]

Decent shift south on the HAFS-A/B through 5 days. Not the greatest models for track but does illustrate Erin could be a powerful hurricane in 5 days time.

HAFS-B shows a weaker version of Irma, it seems. It puts Erin dangerously close to the islands

[BobHarlem]

Final frames of both 18z HAFS models

A: (Was 20.5N at 12z) 5PM Official Forecast 22.0N for 60.5W


B: (was just north of 20N at 12z) 5PM Official Forecast 22.0N for 60.5W

[Ian2401]

Woah, those HAFS runs are nearly 4deg of latitude south of the NHC forecast point.

For example, the 120hr OFCL position has Erin at 22.0N, 60.5W. HAFS-B at 120hr is at ~17.92N, ~59.9W - putting it extremely close to the Leeward Islands. It's even 2deg of latitude south from 12z, which had it at around 20.2N at the same time. That is significant.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1955064415784452549

[cycloneye]

00z SHIPS run.

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED *
* ERIN AL052025 08/12/25 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 48 52 57 67 76 83 91 97 97 100 101 101 101 102 105
V (KT) LAND 40 43 48 52 57 67 76 83 91 97 97 100 101 101 101 102 105
V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 48 52 61 70 80 89 94 94 92 89 87 86 88 90
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 7 3 5 8 5 5 9 12 21 25 29 13 14 13 12 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -4 -4 7 3 4 6 2
SHEAR DIR 66 98 77 52 70 32 26 325 326 299 297 303 310 332 33 344 322
SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.9 27.4 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 119 122 125 125 131 140 143 146 151 153 156 155 156 160 162
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.3
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 58 58 54 54 54 54 54 55 58 64 66 70 72 72
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 17 18 19 21 23 23 26 27 29 30 32 35
850 MB ENV VOR 119 124 129 124 125 103 90 70 57 48 37 20 2 -5 1 -12 19
200 MB DIV 66 48 39 24 10 -6 -6 20 40 33 43 25 34 14 31 6 21
700-850 TADV -4 1 2 0 2 2 0 0 -1 -3 -7 -1 0 4 0 4 8
LAND (KM) 1501 1717 1933 2105 2004 1753 1565 1310 1059 809 623 503 519 553 654 814 982
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.3 17.3 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 31.3 33.3 35.4 37.0 38.7 42.3 45.6 48.4 51.6 54.4 56.7 59.2 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 18 16 17 16 15 15 15 12 12 13 12 9 8 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 3 5 9 15 21 28 31 35 35 39 41 37 33 28

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2

[Stratton23]

HAFS-B has been one of the better models with Erin's track so far, and it shows a significant loss in latitude over the next few days, threatens the northern leeward islands with a direct hit, that could also have a significant impact on its final track