More 12Z runs:
The models have switched in some cases. The GFS/CMC moved W to just SE of Bermuda whereas the Euro moved E to well E of Bermuda.
Icon: still well to the SW of others with it much weaker SSW of Bermuda then recurving NW
JMA: TS at Bermuda at 192
NATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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Re: NATL: INVEST 92L - Models
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS
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Re: NATL: INVEST 92L - Models
A bit of a spread in the intensity forecasts…
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Emily '87, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20, Teddy '20, Fiona '22, Lee '23, Ernesto '24
Re: NATL: INVEST 92L - Models
18z gfs is closer to bermuda, 18z icon shifted right and aligns pretty closely with the 18z GFS out to the end of the icon's run.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 92L - Models
0Z UKMET: passes pretty close to the E of Bermuda; it is significantly weaker than prior run with 1008 mb it’s strongest vs 998 on prior:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 43.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922025
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2025 0 14.4N 43.9W 1010 28
1200UTC 17.09.2025 12 16.9N 45.4W 1009 33
0000UTC 18.09.2025 24 19.5N 48.0W 1009 41
1200UTC 18.09.2025 36 20.7N 50.6W 1008 37
0000UTC 19.09.2025 48 21.3N 53.3W 1008 31
1200UTC 19.09.2025 60 21.7N 55.6W 1009 27
0000UTC 20.09.2025 72 22.0N 57.6W 1010 26
1200UTC 20.09.2025 84 23.3N 59.0W 1010 30
0000UTC 21.09.2025 96 24.8N 60.2W 1010 29
1200UTC 21.09.2025 108 26.2N 60.8W 1010 32
0000UTC 22.09.2025 120 27.5N 61.9W 1009 37
1200UTC 22.09.2025 132 29.2N 63.5W 1010 37
0000UTC 23.09.2025 144 31.1N 63.5W 1010 34
1200UTC 23.09.2025 156 33.1N 62.8W 1010 33
0000UTC 24.09.2025 168 34.0N 59.7W 1009 30
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 43.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922025
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2025 0 14.4N 43.9W 1010 28
1200UTC 17.09.2025 12 16.9N 45.4W 1009 33
0000UTC 18.09.2025 24 19.5N 48.0W 1009 41
1200UTC 18.09.2025 36 20.7N 50.6W 1008 37
0000UTC 19.09.2025 48 21.3N 53.3W 1008 31
1200UTC 19.09.2025 60 21.7N 55.6W 1009 27
0000UTC 20.09.2025 72 22.0N 57.6W 1010 26
1200UTC 20.09.2025 84 23.3N 59.0W 1010 30
0000UTC 21.09.2025 96 24.8N 60.2W 1010 29
1200UTC 21.09.2025 108 26.2N 60.8W 1010 32
0000UTC 22.09.2025 120 27.5N 61.9W 1009 37
1200UTC 22.09.2025 132 29.2N 63.5W 1010 37
0000UTC 23.09.2025 144 31.1N 63.5W 1010 34
1200UTC 23.09.2025 156 33.1N 62.8W 1010 33
0000UTC 24.09.2025 168 34.0N 59.7W 1009 30
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: NATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Check this out folks: 0Z GFS is much weaker with strongest at 1005 mb/barely a TS followed by it weakening and then dissipating over open water of the SW Atlantic into nothing! The prior 13 runs all had hurricanes, usually MH! What the?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: NATL: INVEST 92L - Models
LarryWx wrote:Check this out folks: 0Z GFS is much weaker with strongest at 1005 mb/barely a TS followed by it weakening and then dissipating over open water of the SW Atlantic into nothing! The prior 13 runs all had hurricanes, usually MH! What the?
Would be a bad look for the models if this also vastly underperforms. Great news for real life impacts though.
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