MED: SAMUEL (JOLINA) - Subtropical Storm

[Europa non è lontana]

An occluded low has formed in the central Mediterranean, which may develop tropical characteristics overnight and tomorrow before landfall in Libya.

Satellite:



Phase diagram:



Model runs (ACCESS-G, ICON, ECWMF, ARPEGE, UKMO, GFS at +36):

[Europa non è lontana]

The cyclone appears to have detached from fronts and is completing the transition process now. There appears to be a neutral to warm-core and the system has maintained consistent if shallow convection over the past few hours. SSTs are very marginal, around 18°C, and the system is probably being supported by a cold pool aloft, so I would argue for subtropical classification at the moment.

Satellite image:



Last full ASCAT pass:

[WaveBreaking]

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It indeed looks subtropical today, with sustained convection is trying to wrap around the center. The ASCAT pass from morning also showed separated and quite symmetrical central wind filed.

 https://x.com/Zivipotty/status/2033933882219807095

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

From European groups of meteorological services, the South-western group named the cyclone to 'Samuel' a few days ago, when it formed as an extratropical low over the western part of the Mediterranean Sea, which can be used as an "official" name. Additionally, the FU-Berlin gave it to name 'Jolina'.

Daytime satellite animations:

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like it is transitioning into something worthy of being named.
-Closed LLC
-Convection building close to the core
-Wind field and cloud pattern sports a more tropical structure.

I wouldn't be shocked to see it become tropical tonight into tomorrow if convection can continue to develop over the center. Maybe a banding eye? I'd say 45-50 knts currently but if that develops it could strengthen tropically. I certainly be watching this if I was in one of these countries.

[WaveBreaking]

It briefly had an eye feature at around 19Z on satellite

[cycloneye]

Forgot that we have the Med included to this active storms forum, so moved the thread here. When is gone,will be moved to the 2026 folder for the archives.

[Sciencerocks]

It briefly had an eye feature at around 19Z on satellite
https://i.imgur.com/3xfaWAq.png

Would probably be considered a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic. Probably 55 knts but if it can deepen its convection and sustain that eyewall could become a hurricane.

[Europa non è lontana]

The subtropical storm's cloud tops are now reaching -50°C.



Models are showing landfall in Libya between 08z and 09z, mostly clustered near the city of Ajdabiya.

[Landy]

Recent frames via CyclonicWx show significantly more central DG convection (dvorak scale). Much stronger case for subtropical storm classification now than prior.

[Landy]

Case in point: compare from the start of the gif to the end. Big difference! Wonder if this ends up staying intact up to landfall unlike Daniel 2023 which fell apart.

[Landy]

[Sciencerocks]

Looks to be approaching hurricane organization with that eye closing off and deeping. Probably ~65 knts. A hurricane landfall on Libya is pretty freaking amazing.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Looks to be approaching hurricane organization with that eye closing off and deeping. Probably ~65 knts. A hurricane landfall on Libya is pretty freaking amazing.

I don't think it is stronger than 50-55 kt. ASCAT measured only 35 kt last evening (I know that it underestimates the intensity of small cyclones, but I don't think so much), and the convection also not very strong, especially on the south side. However, it looks more tropical now. Unfortunately, the landfall will occur within about 1 hour in an area where I didn't find available surface observations.

[Europa non è lontana]

The storm made landfall south of Ajdabiya at 08z today.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/2034251822966149578

[Europa non è lontana]

Samuel is persisting over the Libyan Desert.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

ATMS microwave data from CIMSS, it looks that Samuel had a weak warm core at the upper levels too.
Source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atms/archive/2026/202690A/