NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Travorum]

939.9mb extrap so deepening at a steady rate, 124kt FL wind in the N and a 132kt SFMR reading. Blending those evenly would actually support 120 if you trust SFMR.

Edit: I missed the 129kt FL wind 30 seconds earlier, an even blend of those would support 125kts.

[WaveBreaking]

939.9mbar extrap MSLP

[Hypercane_Kyle]

SFMR could support 125-130 knots but flight level winds aren't quite there. Regardless Melissa is definitely intensifying again. Eye temps back up to 18.03C.

[aspen]

Deepening at a decent pace now. I’m struggling to find evidence of a double wind maxima in the wind measurement plot. If an outer eyewall is developing, it’s not showing up that much at the moment.

[eastcoastFL]

939.9mbar extrap MSLP

Pressure continues to drop Rapidly. This is a scary situation. I wonder if that NE eyewall drop is verified. It had 132kts at the surface.

[Hurricane2022]

If it wasn't a C4 earlier, then it is one now. Clearly intensifying again.

[GCANE]

The moat comes and the moat goes,
What's up with that?

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

[GCANE]

Feeling the effects of the new infeed of high-TPW air from the EPAC funneling thru southern Nicaragua.
As advertised.

[WaveBreaking]

The moat comes and the moat goes,
What's up with that?

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

The most looks really narrow on short range radar, and it’s only been narrowing since it showed up. I guess Melissa is going for an eyewall meld instead of a full-on replacement.

[Hurricane2022]

The moat comes and the moat goes,
What's up with that?

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

Eyewall meld may be occurring soon?

[eastcoastFL]

Drop 17 was just off the Jamaican coast and it's already showing 46kt winds and we're 24+ hours from landfall.

[GCANE]

The moat comes and the moat goes,
What's up with that?

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

The most looks really narrow on short range radar, and it’s only been narrowing since it showed up. I guess Melissa is going for an eyewall meld instead of a full p-on replacement.

https://i.imgur.com/mpNKLiS.jpeg

BINGO

[BobHarlem]

Jamaica radar loops
Short range:

Long range:

[zzzh]

I see the double wind max on SE side

[USTropics]

The moat comes and the moat goes,
What's up with that?

https://metservice.gov.jm/daily-forecast/radar/

I'm thinking this is partly radar attenuation now. I haven't used this product in quite a while, but the jump between filling/nonfilling every so often leads me to believe its either attenuation or some issue with the plotting algorithm. If we get some TDR in one of these recon missions we'll have a better idea if that's what it is. This was a pass from GCOM-W1 a little over an hour ago (2:01PM ET):


This was radar imagery at 2:07PM ET:


Given recon reports on the eyewall, I'm assuming contraction for the time being + ramp up and eventual EWRC tonight.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Really can look into the eye now. Stadium effect with a warming eye. This may only be a few hours from going C5.

[GCANE]

New feeder band much closer to the eye.
Shooting straight west to Nicaragua.
Can see the eye rapidly contracting on IR.
Sone eyewall lightning,

https://weathernerds.org/satellite/?ini ... itgefs=Off

[Teban54]

Really can look into the eye now. Stadium effect with a warming eye. This may only be a few hours from going C5.

https://i.imgur.com/uLiCy6R.jpeg

It's a race between Melissa's true intensity catching up with its satellite presentation, vs. EWRC (if at all). Unlike Eta, the other (in)famous case of satellite estimates running too high, Melissa now actually has a warm, clear eye.

Note that Melissa's appearance is still improving, with the recent return of -80C cloud tops in the SE quad of the CDO. The blobs to the SE are now mostly gone or transformed to banding.

[aspen]

AF307 is headed home. When is the next flight scheduled to depart?

[zzzh]

The dropsonde profile is pretty strong. The wind in northern eyewall is so violent that the sonde actually landed on the west side, the weakest side (that's why you only see 99kt)