NATL: MELISSA - Models

[LarryWx]

Fyi..

https://i.postimg.cc/43rqMc8M/IMG-1407.jpg

Thanks. Yes, the 6Z Euro op is near the most NE 6Z EPS members. The large majority are 300-500 miles WSW to SW of the Euro op!

So in terms of these models, the operational versus the others which is the one we’re supposed to rely on?

At 144 hours out, the ensemble mean is usually though not always a better indicator with this much of a difference.
Regardless, nothing should actually be relied on as models are tools rather than crystal balls.

[SFLcane]

06z FNV3 also moving away from a quick NE hook.

[REDHurricane]

Excited to see an epic fail from either the GFS or the Euro. Remember, the GFS showed Jerry becoming a major hurricane as it was actively dissipating.

I have a feeling that the GFS is going to take another L here due to its infamous insistence on developing/strengthening systems far too quickly in this part of the Caribbean specifically (something about how it deals with how the nearby mountains affect wind patterns maybe?). Even though I've only been paying close attention to hurricane season for several years now, it seems like storms always struggle to get going down there until they reach ~75ºW and then tend to rapidly intensify given that they survive long enough for the wind shear to abate. I'm guessing that we probably won't see much more development for the next 48-72 hours or so until shear conditions begin to improve a bit, at least according to t h e m o d e l s

[TomballEd]

The ensembles all seem to show a split, some weighted more N and NE, some weighted more W or SW. Or minor changes in the initial conditions produce major changes in the output.

[kevin]

Early 12z guidance trending slightly more west. 06z had TVCN was over western Haiti and then NE. Now it's west of Haiti and on its way to the eastern tip of Cuba at +120hr. Note that due to the enormous solution space and the bifurcation in solutions (AVN is ~750 miles NE of HFAI at +5 days) the exact path of the TVCN consensus is not all that useful to determine the exact path. But of the 4 - 5 models that took this over Haiti/DR just 12 hours ago, now there are only 2 left. Still lots of uncertainty.

[LarryWx]

Early 12z guidance trending slightly more west. 06z had TVCN was over western Haiti and then NE. Now it's west of Haiti and on its way to the eastern tip of Cuba at +120hr. Note that due to the enormous solution space and the bifurcation in solutions (AVN is ~750 miles NE of HFAI at +5 days) the exact path of the TVCN consensus is not all that useful to determine the exact path. But of the 4 - 5 models that took this over Haiti/DR just 12 hours ago, now there are only 2 left. Still lots of uncertainty.

https://i.imgur.com/NHPZOHI.png

A large majority of 6Z Euro ensemble members are hundreds of miles W to WSW of most of these at 144!

[Fancy1002]

Early 12z guidance trending slightly more west. 06z had TVCN was over western Haiti and then NE. Now it's west of Haiti and on its way to the eastern tip of Cuba at +120hr. Note that due to the enormous solution space and the bifurcation in solutions (AVN is ~750 miles NE of HFAI at +5 days) the exact path of the TVCN consensus is not all that useful to determine the exact path. But of the 4 - 5 models that took this over Haiti/DR just 12 hours ago, now there are only 2 left. Still lots of uncertainty.

https://i.imgur.com/NHPZOHI.png

I think all you have to do to get someone who doesn’t understand much about hurricanes, to understand why tracking the storm is going to be such a headache, all you have to do is show them that picture

[Fancy1002]

I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen this much disagreement from the models over a short time period.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/CraigSetzer/status/1980640359379267623

[caneseddy]

FWIW, the Korean model has a hurricane landfalling around the Naples area heading NE on Halloween. It initially landfalls in Honduras/Nicaragua, bounces right back out into water by Belize, reintensifies into a major hurricane while heading towards South Florida....unfortunately don't have the ability to upload right now so..

[boca]

FWIW, the Korean model has a hurricane landfalling around the Naples area heading NE on Halloween. It initially landfalls in Honduras/Nicaragua, bounces right back out into water by Belize, reintensifies into a major hurricane while heading towards South Florida....unfortunately don't have the ability to upload right now so..

How is that models track record ?

[BobHarlem]

FWIW, the Korean model has a hurricane landfalling around the Naples area heading NE on Halloween. It initially landfalls in Honduras/Nicaragua, bounces right back out into water by Belize, reintensifies into a major hurricane while heading towards South Florida....unfortunately don't have the ability to upload right now so..

How is that models track record ?

Abysmal outside the Philippine Sea.

[Pelicane]

ICON trended much weaker.

[caneseddy]

12z GFS still sticking to its guns of a hurricane landfall on Hispaniola moving NE on Friday

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1980644955749073379



We have a long way to go. Everyone including gulf is still in play

[AutoPenalti]

12z ensembles will be interesting.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seeing how this meets the forecast points will be important with this one. If it starts missing to the west, that has implications going forward.

[Weathertracker96]

The 12z CMC is surely interesting.

[wzrgirl1]

The 12z CMC is surely interesting.

Hi, you can’t make a statement like that and not post the graphic lol

[Weathertracker96]

The 12z CMC is surely interesting.

Hi, you can’t make a statement like that and not post the graphic lol

My apologizes lol. I still get stuck on how to post pictures on here. But the CMC has the system going more west and NE through central Cuba. But looking at the 12z GEFS, the ensembles seem more spread out than before. Hopefully recon will clear all this up.