NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Kazmit]

So this thing is now deeper than Irma huh

It’s incredibly deep for how relatively small of a storm it is. I think the winds still have some catching up to do.

[mrbagyo]

The C130 from Curacao is now entering the eye

[Beef Stew]

Should have a fix from the AF plane any minute now.

[kevin]

Holy sh*t, NOAA2 measured an eye temperature of +28.4C. That has to be the warmest eye I've ever seen during a recon pass and relatively close to the world-record: +34.0C in typhoon Judy, 1979.

[Blown Away]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 16.4N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 78.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 77.3W 115 KT 130 MPH...NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA
48H 29/0600Z 20.1N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR SE BAHAMAS
72H 30/0600Z 24.7N 72.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 32.3N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Melissa is not predicted to go farther W than 78.1, she still looks solid WNW. I believe if she tracks farther W now that will result in a farther W landfall on Jamaica.

[kevin]

AF plane, 912.9 mb extrapolated with 10 kt winds nearby. Also measured 158 kt FL winds is good enough imo to support an upgrade to 145 kt.

[mrbagyo]

912.9 Extrap
158 FL
167 SFMR

[dukeblue219]

I see 167kt SFMR on the Air Force plane, but did I read earlier that there was an issue with the SFMR calibration?

[GCANE]

VDM from Kermit

A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 11:21:48Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16.35N 77.95W
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 916mb (27.05 inHg)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 155kts (From the NE at 178.4mph)
Flight Level = 750mb nominal

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

912.9 Extrap
158 FL
167 SFMR

Wild SFMR - was it flagged?

[kevin]

Dropsonde supports 912 - 913 mb. Slightly lower RH at altitude, but the surface RH is still high at 93%.

[BobHarlem]

https://i.postimg.cc/HnWrBLbh/goes19-ir ... 270905.gif

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 16.4N 77.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 17.3N 78.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 77.3W 115 KT 130 MPH...NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA
48H 29/0600Z 20.1N 76.0W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER SE CUBA
60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR SE BAHAMAS
72H 30/0600Z 24.7N 72.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 32.3N 65.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA
120H 01/0600Z 41.4N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Melissa is not predicted to go farther W than 78.1, she still looks solid WNW. I believe if she tracks farther W now that will result in a farther W landfall on Jamaica.

Interpolated curve between the points (12 hours is a huge gap this close) it could still get to about 78.2 it's still about right, I think it winds up near Treasure beach.

[Beef Stew]

I’m guessing the NHC is probably waiting for data from the NE quadrant before making the bump to 145kts.

[GCANE]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=TglK1XSbSig

[kevin]

We're now entering all-time territory. Here are all the sub-920 hurricanes in the Atlantic. Melissa is now at #15 on the all-time Atlantic list in terms of pressure.

Edit: updated to include category 4 hurricanes.

880s
882 - Wilma (2005)
888 - Gilbert (1988)

890s
892 - Labor Day (1935)
895 - Rita (2005)
895 - Milton (2024)
899 - Allen (1980)

900s
900 - Camille (1969)
902 - Katrina (2005)
905 - Mitch (1998)
905 - Dean (2007)
908 - Maria (2017)

910s
910 - Cuba (1924)
910 - Ivan (2004)
910 - Dorian (2019)
913 - Melissa (2025)
914 - Janet (1955)
914 - Hattie (1961)
914 - Irma (2017)
915 - Cuba (1932)
915 - Isabel (2003)
915 - Erin (2025)
916 - Opal (1995)
917 - Iota (2020)
918 - Great Atlantic (1944)
918 - Hugo (1989)
919 - Esther (1961)
919 - Gloria (1985)
919 - Michael (2018)

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-48-0-100-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[kevin]

Dropsonde for posterity, 159 kt at the surface.

[Beef Stew]

We're now entering all-time territory. Here are all the sub-920 hurricanes in the Atlantic. Melissa is now at #15 on the all-time Atlantic list in terms of pressure.

880s
882 - Wilma (2005)
888 - Gilbert (1988)

890s
892 - Labor Day (1935)
895 - Rita (2005)
895 - Milton (2024)
899 - Allen (1980)

900s
900 - Camille (1969)
902 - Katrina (2005)
905 - Mitch (1998)
905 - Dean (2007)
908 - Maria (2017)

910s
910 - Cuba (1924)
910 - Ivan (2004)
910 - Dorian (2019)
913 - Melissa (2025)
914 - Janet (1955)
914 - Hattie (1961)
914 - Irma (2017)
915 - Cuba (1932)
915 - Isabel (2003)
915 - Erin (2025)
918 - Great Atlantic (1944)
918 - Hugo (1989)
919 - Esther (1961)
919 - Michael (2018)

Great post- but, for what it’s worth, while they weren’t category 5’s, Gloria, Opal, and Iota (still a category 5 in my heart) were all sub-920 as well.

[kevin]

We're now entering all-time territory. Here are all the sub-920 hurricanes in the Atlantic. Melissa is now at #15 on the all-time Atlantic list in terms of pressure.

880s
882 - Wilma (2005)
888 - Gilbert (1988)

890s
892 - Labor Day (1935)
895 - Rita (2005)
895 - Milton (2024)
899 - Allen (1980)

900s
900 - Camille (1969)
902 - Katrina (2005)
905 - Mitch (1998)
905 - Dean (2007)
908 - Maria (2017)

910s
910 - Cuba (1924)
910 - Ivan (2004)
910 - Dorian (2019)
913 - Melissa (2025)
914 - Janet (1955)
914 - Hattie (1961)
914 - Irma (2017)
915 - Cuba (1932)
915 - Isabel (2003)
915 - Erin (2025)
918 - Great Atlantic (1944)
918 - Hugo (1989)
919 - Esther (1961)
919 - Michael (2018)

Great post- but, for what it’s worth, while they weren’t category 5’s, Gloria, Opal, and Iota (still a category 5 in my heart) were all sub-920 as well.

I thought I also checked the cat 4 hurricanes, but apparently I missed a few. Thanks, I'll update the list now.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Were both planes passing through the eye at the same time?