NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Teban54]

145 kts means that this has officially surpassed Ragasa (and Humberto/Erin/Errol) in maximum sustained winds. 908 hPa also makes it the second-most-intense storm globally in 2025. Knowing that Ragasa was likely sub-900 and at or above 145 kt itself makes this feat slightly less impressive....but only slightly. For the Atlantic, this is just about top-tier - the peak Dvorak presentation alone was a record-setter.

I missed that insane Dvorak presentation overnight. Is this the first time ever that a system managed to hit T8.0 on ADT? Aside from Eta hitting T8.0+ RAWs.

As I noted here, yes in terms of CI #:

Does Melissa have the highest CI# in Atlantic ADT history? Melissa's CI# just hit 7.8 with the most recent analysis, and the closest I could find in the Atlantic archives going back to ADT's implementation was Milton at a CI# of 7.7.

I assume you're looking at the CIMSS archives; the NOAA archives somehow have different data, with Milton's CI# only peaking at 7.4.

Checking the CIMSS archives, indeed it is:

• 8.1: Melissa
• 7.7: Milton
• 7.3: Irma, Eta
• 7.2: Rita, Michael
• 7.1: Dean, Maria, Lorenzo (2019)
• 7.0: Bill (2009), Matthew, Iota, Kirk (2024), Humberto (2025)

It's possible that the algorithm may have been improved since 2003, so the early comparisons may not be totally applicable. Case in point, Rita was the only storm in 2003-2005 that made this list.

Updated with the latest CI 8.1 for Melissa.

[sasha_B]

145 kts means that this has officially surpassed Ragasa (and Humberto/Erin/Errol) in maximum sustained winds. 908 hPa also makes it the second-most-intense storm globally in 2025. Knowing that Ragasa was likely sub-900 and at or above 145 kt itself makes this feat slightly less impressive....but only slightly. For the Atlantic, this is just about top-tier - the peak Dvorak presentation alone was a record-setter.

I missed that insane Dvorak presentation overnight. Is this the first time ever that a system managed to hit T8.0 on ADT? Aside from Eta hitting T8.0+ RAWs.

I believe so, yes. There was some discussion of ADT records earlier; IIRC Melissa now holds the records for CI/Final T# (8.1) and Adj. T# (8.3) in the Atlantic.

[Fancy1002]

I wish the NOAA plane would do one more pass-through before heading home.

[Travorum]

I wish the NOAA plane would do one more pass-through before heading home.

From the NHC discussion they were supposed to but hit extreme turbulence:

The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall.

[FLpanhandle91]

https://fr24.com/TEAL76/3cd8177d

NE to SW pass incoming.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1982822802903494894

[TallyTracker]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

Perhaps Bing [BOT] & Google [BOT] brought all their [BOT] friends

Well...it's up to 353 now...that's a lotta bots

[Travorum]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

I'm really concerned about Melissa potentially making landfall near Treasure Beach. There are populated areas immediately east of there that are on cliffs 400m tall right near the coast that would be in the right front quadrant eyewall, and we saw from the dropsondes earlier what the winds look like 400m up.

[chaser1]

Just curious but does anyone happen to know where the Island's primary electrical infrastructure/production centers are located? I would assume relative proximity to Kingston but that's just a guess

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Jamaica

I found this list for production, It looks like by capacity most production infrastructure is located in the two parishes to the west of Kingston (St Catherine and Clarendon), with some capacity in Kingston itself. There are also a few notable production facilities up near Montego Bay. There are several wind farms and a hydroelectric plant near where Melissa is more likely to make landfall in St Elizabeth parish, they produce a little over 100MW combined.

Interesting stuff, thanks. Well, it's possible that the storms core might impact Jamaica's west end more directly and that wouldn't bode well for their Montego Bay power facilities (and especially bad for their tourism industry). Still, it appears that the greater part of their power grid is further east and closer to Kingston. Hopefully that area will be spared the worst wind. Sadly, the storm surge impact there will be extreme. That'll further exacerbate the destruction of their Barge Power facilities near and just east of Kingston. Short of some westward shift miracle, all in all this is going to be a tragic disaster.

Furthermore, where significant elevation changes may provide protection from storm surge and flooding from rainfall, only increases the risk of higher winds with height. I wonder what extent of the high population areas are modernized to the extent of providing high groun with good stablished drainage regions with facilities that ideally would have or be connected to underground electric? Better yet, underground emergency facilities or basement-like shelters.

[ATDoel]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

I don't believe many, if any, of their homes are stick built so that should really help. There's going to be missing roofs but I don't think we'll see an extensive number of homes swept off their foundation from wind like you would in a severe tornado. Now the mudslides and surge on the other hand.....

[chaser1]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

Perhaps Bing [BOT] & Google [BOT] brought all their [BOT] friends

Well...it's up to 353 now...that's a lotta bots

We're their analytical mosh pit

[Teban54]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

Perhaps Bing [BOT] & Google [BOT] brought all their [BOT] friends

Well...it's up to 353 now...that's a lotta bots

The thread got to 400 guests last night.

[sasha_B]

Lightning is still going wild in the eyewall despite signs that pressure has begun to fill in....I know "fluctuations in intensity" typically means gradual weakening following a high-end peak, but there might be time left for Melissa to rebound even if her intensity levels off or slips temporarily. She is, after all, officially forecast to stay around 145 kts for another 12 hours...

[cycloneye]

Here is a image that all have to archive and screenshot. The eye of Melissa from the NOAA plane that Andy Hazelton was as part of crew.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also, Melissa is the first WCAR Category 5 hurricane we've had since 2007. Melissa pretty much meets the descriptions of the stereotypical "late-season WCAR monster" that wx enthusiasts constantly rave about.

[Michele B]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1982813591158857799

Does this loop look like Melissa is moving east, or is the orientation upside down??

[TallyTracker]

This is going to be like a 50-mile wide tornado where it makes landfall. I’d be looking for a reinforced concrete building or underground basement (outside a flood zone). I’m concerned that their building codes no matter how much they may have improved after Gilbert are going to be no match for a storm of this caliber. Praying for the folks there to be safe.

I'm really concerned about Melissa potentially making landfall near Treasure Beach. There are populated areas immediately east of there that are on cliffs 400m tall right near the coast that would be in the right front quadrant eyewall, and we saw from the dropsondes earlier what the winds look like 400m up.

That crossed my mind as well. Few buildings can survive 200+ mph gusts at that height. If we had sensors up there it might rival Gustav’s record wind gust in Cuba.

[ATDoel]

https://fr24.com/TEAL76/3cd8177d

NE to SW pass incoming.

hopefully nothing but they disappeared off the tracker as soon as they hit the eyewall....

[TallyTracker]

With the current track, looks like Jamaica will avoid landfall. Next stop, Cuba instead.

There is a non-zero chance of that happening. It’s unlikely and Jamaica should not plan on that. But Cuba should be prepping for at least a Cat 4 hit in case it misses Jamaica and does not weaken as much as anticipated.