NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Beef Stew]

Yeah, I think Melissa is still deepening. Just a violent hurricane. 11am NHC discussion said the NOAA aircraft had to bail out earlier because of the extreme turbulence.

I wonder, thinking out loud, when the last time that has happened.

I don’t think it caused them to leave, but I remember recon got hit with some crazy turbulence (that I believe caused some damage) in Ian.

[kevin]

The latest dropsonde supports 907 mb. Conversion factors from instantaneous FL winds to surface wind are 0.9, 0.8, and 0.75 for 700mb, 850mb and 925mb, respectively. As such, the different measurements from the plane and dropsonde support 145kt, 145 kt, and 148 kt respectively. 907mb/145kt seems like the safest best, but with the 201 kt dropsonde earlier a case could also be made for 150 kt.

[eastcoastFL]

I don't follow the tropics much, but this one is a monster. What are the chances of it clipping the far SW side of the island? It seems to still be mostly going west. No real north turn yet, and each advisory just "moves" the turn just a little bit west. Much further west and it will be wrong again...

Its heading just a tad north of due west. Forward speed has decreased which typically signals that it's beginning to make its turn so I'd bet on it sticking pretty close to the current NHC track. Plus once the trough gets a hold of it, the storm will get pulled to the NE pretty quick.

[zzzh]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

https://i.imgur.com/GHwO5yK.png

These are Dorian-level drops. Might be enough to justify even 155 kt by 2pm or 5pm.

Stronger than Dorian. Dorian only had mean 150m wind of 177kt. Melissa has 185kt In fact Melissa is the strongest in terms of WL150.

[tolakram]

Reminder, this is the NHC forecast and the one everyone should be paying attention too. The track is pretty much set except for perhaps a few miles left or right. Now is not the time to post, even joking, that this might miss the Jamaica.

[tolakram]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=avcz3q8uAgk

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1982847789164810255

[Ubuntwo]

The latest dropsonde supports 907 mb. Conversion factors from instantaneous FL winds to surface wind are 0.9, 0.8, and 0.75 for 700mb, 850mb and 925mb, respectively. As such, the different measurements from the plane and dropsonde support 145kt, 145 kt, and 148 kt respectively. 907mb/145kt seems like the safest best, but with the 201 kt dropsonde earlier a case could also be made for 150 kt.

The most recent eyewall dropsonde actually directly supports 155kt, reduced.

[eastcoastFL]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

https://i.imgur.com/GHwO5yK.png

Makes me wonder about folks that might seek high ground to avoid flooding. What's the wind going to be like at these higher elevations?

[Beef Stew]

She’s probably a 150 kt storm, if not even stronger. We’ll see if there’s a bump at the intermediate advisory. Totally depends on what weight they give to the data from the dropsondes.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like a "CCC" pattern in Melissa. The GFS's solution is becoming reality, fortunately for Jamaica

Unfortunately, this aged like room temp milk.

[dukeblue219]

Now she's just showing off. 197 kt at 920 mb, that's probably only about 50 - 70 meters above the surface

https://i.imgur.com/GHwO5yK.png

Makes me wonder about folks that might seek high ground to avoid flooding. What's the wind going to be like at these higher elevations?

l

High winds, yes, but better than high winds and flooding.

Winds do drop off pretty quickly over land, so I wouldn't recommend staying at lower elevation near the coast just because the over-water winds aloft are insane. It's all considered as part of the official evac orders.

[Hurricane2022]

[rwfromkansas]

I don't follow the tropics much, but this one is a monster. What are the chances of it clipping the far SW side of the island? It seems to still be mostly going west. No real north turn yet, and each advisory just "moves" the turn just a little bit west. Much further west and it will be wrong again...

Its heading just a tad north of due west. Forward speed has decreased which typically signals that it's beginning to make its turn so I'd bet on it sticking pretty close to the current NHC track. Plus once the trough gets a hold of it, the storm will get pulled to the NE pretty quick.

Yeah the satellite on the last page shows a pretty convincing bump north that seems to be a resuming of that direction. Darn. Was hoping for a miracle.

[BobHarlem]

Radar Loop, it's a bit behind satellite, but north bump evident at the end here also. (Jamaica met office playing with zoom levels)

[kevin]

Walked away from my laptop for a few minutes only to see the AF plane going in for their 5th pass! Absolute champs.

[Beef Stew]

We should be getting our final center pass for the next ~6 hours shortly

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/CIRA_CSU/status/1982852441252213234

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1982837687045247295

[mrbagyo]

906.8 extrap
152 FL

It might have peaked

[Hurricane2022]

Another pause is ongoing.