NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Fancy1002]

Why did they exit through the south or south west, it seems the strongest section of the storm is on the east

[GCANE]

No sign of any type of the core drying on latest drop.
Even if it starts drying out now, the effect of an EWRC would be minimal for Jamacia.
This is the worst-case scenario.
Turn to the north underway.
Pray for Jamacia

[ScottNAtlanta]

About the NOAA plane that had to turn back this morning due to turbulence

“NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in Melissa’s latest forecast discussion.

Hurricane hunters are no stranger to powerful winds and intense turbulence, so what happened Monday morning is remarkable. These teams routinely fly specialized aircraft into the most powerful storms on the planet to collect weather data, which is used to improve track and intensity forecasts.

But this flight was “definitely the most turbulent I’ve ever experienced,” Andy Hazelton, a hurricane expert who confirmed he was on the plane, said on X.

Aircraft positioning data shows that the plane — a WP-3D Orion — was able to take at least two passes through Melissa’s center, collecting critical weather data before experiencing the dangerous turbulence that sent researchers heading for safety.

[crownweather]

Radar Loop, it's a bit behind satellite, but north bump evident at the end here also. (Jamaica met office playing with zoom levels)

https://i.postimg.cc/sx6R7P6z/Jamaica-Radar-Melissa-recent-1.gif

Do you have a link for updated radar imagery from Jamaica Met Office?

[Fancy1002]

Did they miss the center of the eye again, because of the mesovorticies?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The last Category 5 landfall in the Atlantic was Dorian (2019). There have only been 18 Category 5 landfalls in this basin in the last 100 years.

[aspen]

Probably temporarily stabilizing around 905-907 mbar and 150 kt. Although an argument can be made for 155 kt or even 160 kt due to the incredibly intense dropsonde readings suggesting those FL winds are translating well to the surface.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 150 kt and 906 mb based on all the data.

[ATDoel]

About the NOAA plane that had to turn back this morning due to turbulence

“NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in Melissa’s latest forecast discussion.

Hurricane hunters are no stranger to powerful winds and intense turbulence, so what happened Monday morning is remarkable. These teams routinely fly specialized aircraft into the most powerful storms on the planet to collect weather data, which is used to improve track and intensity forecasts.

But this flight was “definitely the most turbulent I’ve ever experienced,” Andy Hazelton, a hurricane expert who confirmed he was on the plane, said on X.

Aircraft positioning data shows that the plane — a WP-3D Orion — was able to take at least two passes through Melissa’s center, collecting critical weather data before experiencing the dangerous turbulence that sent researchers heading for safety.

Was something damaged or can the WC-130 that's in there now handle more turbulence than the Orion?

[kevin]

Yes, 906mb/150kt seems reasonable based on all the data. With still no sign of an EWRC, the current pause in intensity is not caused by any weakening or EWRC imo but simply a more extreme version of the stair-stepping process we've seen before. Whether this is the final step and Melissa peaks around 905 - 910 mb or whether <905mb is still on the table remains a question for 6 hours from now when we have another recon plane.

[ATDoel]

Last drop measured 908 mb @ 21kt, drop before was 909 mb @ 17kt. Are we sure Melissa isn't still strengthening?

[BobHarlem]

Radar Loop, it's a bit behind satellite, but north bump evident at the end here also. (Jamaica met office playing with zoom levels)

https://i.postimg.cc/sx6R7P6z/Jamaica-Radar-Melissa-recent-1.gif

Do you have a link for updated radar imagery from Jamaica Met Office?

flhurricane's mirror has been the most consistent and it tells you when it's updated, Jamaica's website flakes out a lot
https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?960

[kevin]

Slightly lower RH in the eye (90%) with the latest dropsonde compared to before (93% - 94%), but not significant enough to attribute it to an EWRC directly.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Need to see a drop in humidity just outside of the eyewall to see the beginnings of a true ERC.
Lets hope the timing occurs as its moving towards the island. It happened in Milton, I think, last year.

Continue to pray for Jamaica!

[eastcoastFL]

With the lack of shear and dry air and the extreme high heat content I think continued strengthening is definitely possible. The current location of Melissa should be able to support a sub 900 storm but it's so hard for these storms to maintain this kind of intensity. They're pumping out a ton of energy.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX/status/1982840670068044004

[USTropics]

About the NOAA plane that had to turn back this morning due to turbulence

“NOAA aircraft left the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in Melissa’s latest forecast discussion.

Hurricane hunters are no stranger to powerful winds and intense turbulence, so what happened Monday morning is remarkable. These teams routinely fly specialized aircraft into the most powerful storms on the planet to collect weather data, which is used to improve track and intensity forecasts.

But this flight was “definitely the most turbulent I’ve ever experienced,” Andy Hazelton, a hurricane expert who confirmed he was on the plane, said on X.

Aircraft positioning data shows that the plane — a WP-3D Orion — was able to take at least two passes through Melissa’s center, collecting critical weather data before experiencing the dangerous turbulence that sent researchers heading for safety.

Was something damaged or can the WC-130 that's in there now handle more turbulence than the Orion?

I have some more information on this from my advisor here (Dr. Bourassa) who assists with recon flights from NOAA. The plane is fine to our knowledge, but on the second eye punch, it went through extreme turbulence (only the 2nd time ever in the past 10 years this has happened) and there was concern there was damage to the plane/instruments. The mission was canceled afterwards and sent back to Lakeland for inspection.

[eastcoastFL]

A bit of a due north wobble is visible now on satellite.

[Hurricane2022]

Poor birds
 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1982860167860629782

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/BryceShelton01/status/1982839457628950982