NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Haven't spotted any Satanic pentagram mesovorts in the eye yet they probably only resonate in larger diameter Cat 5 eye.

[ScottNAtlanta]

With every video coming from Jamaica & many people deciding not to evacuate to a shelter, I'm getting more afraid we're looking at a disaster in the making. The strongest hurricane to ever make landfall on the island was Gilbert at 115 kt. There is a good chance that Melissa will make landfall at 140 - 160 kt. On top of that an estimated 25+ inches of rain will fall on a large portion of the island.

I hope it's because there's still a decent amount of time to get to a shelter and they likely don't have far to go. Staying in a shelter for 2 days sounds horrible. Also it isn't like the states where you can hop on the interstate and drive a couple hundred miles away from a storm, so they're pretty stuck in the local area.

The topography of Kingston makes it safer to shelter in place.
There are many areas within a few blocks of the bay that are above 100 feet that have good drainage and never flood.
Its areas like the airport that are susceptible to surge.
As long as the core winds keep moving west then north, shelter in place is probably going to work in Kingston.

I think a big problem will be landslides similar to what happened in NC with Helene only on a much bigger scale since those mountains are much higher up. If you look on GE you can see several places where slides have happened in the past.

[Fancy1002]

Never mind about the slightly, the dry eye temp just shot up.

[CrazyC83]

It will be interesting to see if they increase the intensity even more on the coming advisory. I think there's enough continuity to go for an intensity of 155 kt, and a slightly lower pressure.

[Travorum]

Looks like they kept it at 150kt/906mb

[aspen]

Held at 150/906. Not a great call IMO. Data from last flight already supported potentially upgrading to 155 kt. But we’ll see for certain in ~2 hours.

Edit: they even mentioned one of the eyewall drops supported 155 kt surface winds, so I don’t know why they didn’t upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

Dvorak clearly supports T7.5, and if that ring can wrap all the way around, T8.0.

[aspen]

Looking at the ~5 hour loop on Tropical Tidbits, Melissa’s CDO is actually even more symmetrical than at 16z, when it was slightly oblate along its horizontal axis. As if it couldn’t get even more impressive today. Perfect time for recon to be on its way.

[weeniepatrol]

Held at 150/906. Not a great call IMO. Data from last flight already supported potentially upgrading to 155 kt. But we’ll see for certain in ~2 hours.

Edit: they even mentioned one of the eyewall drops supported 155 kt surface winds, so I don’t know why they didn’t upgrade.

Because flight level winds supported 145 kt. Blending the two yields 150 kt - the methodology, whether or not you agree with it, is quite clear here at least. I personally suspect it's slightly stronger, though.

[Ivanhater]

Really starting to wonder if this may not officially make landfall in Jamaica

[Hurricane2022]

Melissa just broke her own record. Again.
 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1982912560488984858

[AxaltaRacing24]

Really starting to wonder if this may not officially make landfall in Jamaica

It’s expected to hook back east a little bit as it approaches.

[Hurricane2022]

Meanwhile in the WPAC basin and the Philippines...looks like they're also about to get their own Melissa if the Google AI ensembles and ECMWF are correct.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1982915178221191411

[TheHurricaneGod]

Easily the best eye penetration videos I've ever seen!

[tolakram]

saved loop

[msbee]

[quote="skillz305"]Just came by to say I’m praying for Jamaica.

[/quot
Everyone here on st maarten Atlantic is praying for Jamaica too. It is the main topic of on the island. We all know Jamaican people who live here who have families there. We all know what it was like to live through Irma. And we know what is about to happen in Jamaica. It’s very scary.

[Hurricane Mike]

5pm update for anyone interested
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehGhpWEivtU

[MGC]

Impressive symmetry of Melissa's clouds. Just about a perfect as a TC can get. Might get a bit stronger but I think the hurricane is topped out. Going to be terrible for Jamaica. Feel real bad for the people there as I know what they are going to go through......MGC

[Blown Away]

Meanwhile, Melissa continues moving W of the track...