NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

Around 10-15 minutes ago, but look at the amount of eyewall lightning on the northwestern side

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3cTh.png

[Hurricane2022]

Around 10-15 minutes ago, but look at the amount of eyewall lightning on the northwestern side
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3cTh.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3cTh.png

The CDO is also cooling and the eye apparently shrunk a bit in the last frames. Recon is about to depart!

[ATDoel]

Around 10-15 minutes ago, but look at the amount of eyewall lightning on the northwestern side
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3cTh.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3cTh.png

The CDO is also cooling and the eye apparently shrunk a bit in the last frames. Recon is about to depart!

Did it shrink or is it just overshooting cloud tops? There was a decent burst right on the edge of the eyewall.

[Hurricane2022]

The stability and violence of Melissa strongly reminds me of STY Bolaven '23. Bolaven remained with a cold CDO and a very stable eye for 2 or 3 consecutive days. JTWC estimated a peak of 165 kt/897 mb for that historic typhoon.

[zzzh]

NOAA 42 taking off

[Travorum]

The NOAA recon flight is wheels up. The first fix is scheduled for 4 hours from now, but recon this morning took 3 hours to get into the storm and get the first fix and Melissa has moved a bit closer since then so we'll likely have the first eye pass from this flight between 2230-2300z if all goes well (probably towards the end of the window as Melissa isn't all that fast moving).

[Fancy1002]

Based on the data I’m seeing, Melissa seems to be repeatedly breaking new dry temperature records, just slightly.

[Nimbus]

Haven't spotted any Satanic pentagram mesovorts in the eye yet they probably only resonate in larger diameter Cat 5 eye.

[ScottNAtlanta]

With every video coming from Jamaica & many people deciding not to evacuate to a shelter, I'm getting more afraid we're looking at a disaster in the making. The strongest hurricane to ever make landfall on the island was Gilbert at 115 kt. There is a good chance that Melissa will make landfall at 140 - 160 kt. On top of that an estimated 25+ inches of rain will fall on a large portion of the island.

I hope it's because there's still a decent amount of time to get to a shelter and they likely don't have far to go. Staying in a shelter for 2 days sounds horrible. Also it isn't like the states where you can hop on the interstate and drive a couple hundred miles away from a storm, so they're pretty stuck in the local area.

The topography of Kingston makes it safer to shelter in place.
There are many areas within a few blocks of the bay that are above 100 feet that have good drainage and never flood.
Its areas like the airport that are susceptible to surge.
As long as the core winds keep moving west then north, shelter in place is probably going to work in Kingston.

I think a big problem will be landslides similar to what happened in NC with Helene only on a much bigger scale since those mountains are much higher up. If you look on GE you can see several places where slides have happened in the past.

[Fancy1002]

Never mind about the slightly, the dry eye temp just shot up.

[CrazyC83]

It will be interesting to see if they increase the intensity even more on the coming advisory. I think there's enough continuity to go for an intensity of 155 kt, and a slightly lower pressure.

[Travorum]

Looks like they kept it at 150kt/906mb

[aspen]

Held at 150/906. Not a great call IMO. Data from last flight already supported potentially upgrading to 155 kt. But we’ll see for certain in ~2 hours.

Edit: they even mentioned one of the eyewall drops supported 155 kt surface winds, so I don’t know why they didn’t upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

Dvorak clearly supports T7.5, and if that ring can wrap all the way around, T8.0.

[aspen]

Looking at the ~5 hour loop on Tropical Tidbits, Melissa’s CDO is actually even more symmetrical than at 16z, when it was slightly oblate along its horizontal axis. As if it couldn’t get even more impressive today. Perfect time for recon to be on its way.

[weeniepatrol]

Held at 150/906. Not a great call IMO. Data from last flight already supported potentially upgrading to 155 kt. But we’ll see for certain in ~2 hours.

Edit: they even mentioned one of the eyewall drops supported 155 kt surface winds, so I don’t know why they didn’t upgrade.

Because flight level winds supported 145 kt. Blending the two yields 150 kt - the methodology, whether or not you agree with it, is quite clear here at least. I personally suspect it's slightly stronger, though.

[Ivanhater]

Really starting to wonder if this may not officially make landfall in Jamaica

[Hurricane2022]

Melissa just broke her own record. Again.
 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1982912560488984858

[AxaltaRacing24]

Really starting to wonder if this may not officially make landfall in Jamaica

It’s expected to hook back east a little bit as it approaches.