NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[michelinj]

I would be extremely surprised if this missed Jamaica to the west. All hurricanes wobble and just because the eye seems to shift way west or east of forecast doesn’t mean the whole storm is. A slight shift west in landfall location? Probably yes, but I don’t think by much. It’ll likely wobble back at some point soon, then west then back etc etc

[cheezyWXguy]

Are we about to get another full -80c wrap?

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://x.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1982915178221191411

I don't recall ever seeing a video inside of the eye where the walls were as concave.

[Ubuntwo]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

https://i.imgur.com/B8jx8ve.gif

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

[eastcoastFL]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/FzNz202m/Melissa2.jpg [/url]

Meanwhile, Melissa continues moving W of the track...

I don't think that's going to make a huge difference in the short or long term. It's still going to devastate Jamaica and Cuba. The Bahamas are still in for quite a storm too.

[Teban54]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

https://i.imgur.com/B8jx8ve.gif

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

Could both the bolded parts have to do with sunset and the cooling tropopause?

[eastcoastFL]

This is definitely one of the more p*ssed off looking hurricanes I've seen in the Atlantic.

https://i.imgur.com/JFxYQC8.png

It's almost a perfect looking storm. Terrifying, destructive and perfect all at once. It would've been nice to track it in the open ocean instead of the islands.

[Travorum]

The NOAA recon flight is descending and just passed Jamaica, it seems to be heading in at a good time looking at IR appearance. It should be in the eye within the hour.

[floridasun]

anyone have backup jamica radar site their site down?

[Travorum]

anyone have backup jamica radar site their site down?

Here's an alternate source, but it hasn't been able to update for an hour and a half.

https://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?960

[aspen]

You know that the CDO is violent when the pink/CDG colors just start blinking rather than rotating... But it looks like Melissa is still making an attempt at wrapping it around.

https://i.imgur.com/B8jx8ve.gif

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

I think it’s an EWRC or another meld. Starring to look like it on the IR meso floater.

[Ubuntwo]

I pointed this out earlier but look at how the CDO transitions to a near-perfect circle about halfway through, after being slightly oblate at the start of the loop. It’s somehow getting even better than it already was.

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

Could both the bolded parts have to do with sunset and the cooling tropopause?

https://i.imgur.com/YtbptXO.gif

Could be the case for the CDO, but you can see the formerly clear eye has developed more low clouds on vis. These seem to be tied to increasing mesovort activity - which is a bit of an odd development for a storm already at 150kt.

[Teban54]

You can watch rotating hot towers on 1-min meso floaters the same way you'd typically see them in intensifying hurricanes on 10-min satellite loops.

[StormPyrate]

this thing refuses to cooperate with the official track, just keeps lugging west

[Beef Stew]

I think Milton may be the only other Atlantic hurricane that I can recall seeing that looked this good on satellite (Eta too, but that was an oddity). It’s hard to put in to words just how impressive Melissa looks. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a sub 900 mb storm now or shortly ago, but then again she’s looked that way for much of the past day.

[SteveM]

Might just be me, but she's looking a little less impressive on the last couple of IR frames. EWRC incoming or ?

[kronotsky]

I wonder if the asymmetry and (ever-so-slight, almost unnoticeable) cooling in the eye is simply related to the fact that a very intense band of convection has just wrapped around the eye. That seems like a sign of strengthening, no?

[tolakram]

source: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

[Nimbus]

CDO is definitely cooler and rounder, but the eye has been dropping in temp over the past few frames + becoming a little more unstable. At the same time, it appears to have contracted. Hard to say whether which factor is overpowering here.

Could both the bolded parts have to do with sunset and the cooling tropopause?

https://i.imgur.com/YtbptXO.gif

Could be the case for the CDO, but you can see the formerly clear eye has developed more low clouds on vis. These seem to be tied to increasing mesovort activity - which is a bit of an odd development for a storm already at 150kt.

I've seen some mesovortex activity come and go all day but only two or three in the low clouds.
Something to do with the low level inflow characteristics humidity/temperature?

[Woofde]

I wonder if the asymmetry and (ever-so-slight, almost unnoticeable) cooling in the eye is simply related to the fact that a very intense band of convection has just wrapped around the eye. That seems like a sign of strengthening, no?

It certainly could be yeah. The burst that began at 21:50:30Z on the meso imagery and subsequently ripped around the eye was very intense. It remains to be seen, there has been more wobbling of the eye recently, but that can also be a sign of intensification. We'll know better shortly.