NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[zzzh]

Still a very strong dropsonde profile.

[Teban54]

164 knots on SFMR... incredible.

SFMR is not reliable, especially with winds this high. Its good data if used properly but it tends to overestimate wind speed.

Clearly it must have some degree of accuracy, because the NHC is using 175mph.

CDO is cooling, down to -79.5C..

Regarding this advisory's 150 kt, I wonder if it's a matter of:

• NHC may not have factored in this pass, which happened just 4 minutes before the advisory time. (There was another instance earlier today, where the wording gave no mention to a similarly timed eye pass.)
• Because of this, they may prefer to show continuity, when they're uncertain about whether Melissa is strengthening or weakening (or neither) from the first pass alone.

If subsequent passes report similar results, then I can see later advisories dropping to 145 kt, which is the current forecast intensity for 2am EDT.

Edit: I forgot the possibility that you may have been referring to earlier times when they went with 150 kt, which NotoSans covered pretty well.

[Jr0d]

@Kyle
They are going with 175 mph based on other data, this was a post early this morning about the flaws in SFMR data and why NOAA does not publicly post their SFMR data.

Please see the SFMR thread at the end for context.
....snip.....
See this thread on Bluesky about SFMR being unreliable from earlier NOAA mission where SFMR was turned off:
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ce6exp ... 4fslz5zk2b

....snip......

‪James Franklin‬: "Alan, unless something has changed recently, the SFMR data aren’t considered properly calibrated. NOAA turned off the transmission of the SFMR but that’s harder to do on the AF C-130s."

‪Alan Gerard‬: "Thanks for the update on that. I didn’t know if that was the situation still or not. I will avoid mentioning going forward"

James Franklin‬: "I haven’t heard anything and I understand the fixes are non-trivial, so yeah, use with caution, especially at the high end."

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1982961410171904386

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/enhancedrisk/status/1982962719360979427

[aspen]

910/8 eye drop from NOAA, so probably 909 mbar right now.

[Nimbus]

910/8 eye drop from NOAA, so probably 909 mbar right now.

It has been almost stationary last two hours.
Which way will it track next?
If she waits for the trough to get pushed NE you would think we might get some dry shear to put an end to this madness. Official forecast track still east of Montego Bay?

[Teban54]

The CDG (pink) ring is now almost as thick as it can be. With obvious caveats that (1) not sure how long this will last, and (2) the colder tropopause since sunset is overblowing things.

[WaveBreaking]

You can see Melissa stop in place as its CDO expands and cools again.

[sasha_B]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

[Beef Stew]

For what it’s worth, both of the most recent HAFS runs show Melissa’s peak as still to come after she turns to the north and aligns more with the trough… the pause in motion and expanding CDO we’re seeing could be the precursor to that if the models are correct.

[TallyTracker]

Melissa is about to pass Gabrielle’s 19.0 ACE to be third highest this year. The North Atlantic’s YTD ACE just passed average. Only a little bit more is needed to pass average for the whole season.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[crimi481]

No north movement yet. Melissa calling the shots and wants no ropes

[Travorum]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

[Hurricane2022]

You can see Melissa stop in place as its CDO expands and cools again.
https://i.imgur.com/qufzBDA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zMDuyPT.png

The eye also became somewhat larger. Another eyewall meld likely occured again.

[Travorum]

And Raw T# is up to 8.4, tying Eta for the highest ever Raw T# recorded in the Atlantic.

[sasha_B]

Don't look now, but Melissa just hit CI/FT 8.0 on ADT (again). Raw value of 8.3 at 0010z, which is as high as it's ever been.

Raw T# is back to where it was almost 24 hours ago which is especially impressive given that in the meantime the CI# at every timestep since then has stayed above any prior CI# that any hurricane has set since ADT was implemented.

Better than that. As of 0030z, Melissa now holds or ties the record for raw, adjusted, *and* final-T (as well as CI) on ADT:

2025OCT28 003020 8.0 888.8 170.0 8.0 8.4 8.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.48 -80.20 EYE

[WaveBreaking]

[michelinj]

You can see Melissa stop in place as its CDO expands and cools again.
https://i.imgur.com/qufzBDA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/zMDuyPT.png

The eye also became somewhat larger. Another eyewall meld likely occured again.

Yeah it’s subtle but it has. I must have changed my mind 100 times on whether an EWRC or meld took place this afternoon but I reckon it did and it’s done now. If so and she starts moving with the shear vector some of those HAFS runs may be absolutely spot on.

[aspen]

Interesting, both recon planes are matching their flight profiles. Both did a NE/SW pass before, now they’re going in for a SE/NW pass together.