ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Finally moving north now?

[robbielyn]

I haven't been following tropical systems as closely this year due to MOVING AWAY from FL and the threats, but I'm still curious, since I lived the majority of my life in FL and did a lot of hurricane prognosticating through the years.

My question is: are there new computer models being used? I thought I heard there is one utilizing AI to help predict path/strength, etc. Is there any truth to that and if so, where do those things reside?

Thanks all, for all you do.

P.S. We still do have a property in FL at present, so this year's storms may still affect us, and I will be watching with a somewhat interested eye. Just won't be into the whole "prep and wait" mode.

It feels good!

Tropical tidbits Euro AI

[StormWeather]

Finally moving north now?
https://i.imgur.com/ri8nu6v.gif

I went to AustraliaSevereWeather.com to find Irma’s invest track, and what ended up happening was this early on:

The then-invest moved nearly due west and then it moved north-northwestward on a track that took it over the CV islands before turning west again but this time at a higher latitude.


So if 97L is going north right now, it is eerily similar to Irma’s precursor trajectory.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent

[StormWeather]

Well the cone now includes the CV islands… fun.

[Coolcruiseman]

Florida Space Coast here. Looking like a range of outcomes possible with this one. And potential Erin appears to be getting her act together fairly early. Time of course is going to tell if that’s good news for the land masses.

[WaveBreaking]

97L looks pretty good this afternoon.

[beachnut]

Yeah I'll tag in here too. If we wind up in the path, which may not be likely at this point, I feel like we would be ok due to all the home-hardening we've done over the past three years. The only thing we can't do is raise the house up higher. Since we live very close to the gulf and on a gulf-access canal it's water that's our worst enemy.

[convergencezone2]

So here we are. This is going to be a very long thread. I hope this stay away from landmasses.

yea if this threatens land, this could be a long thread, otherwise not so much. It will be interesting to how the models respond to earlier strengthening, should that happen.

[cycloneye]

Interesting message from Eric Webb about the ridges.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1954228423225937950

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track AL, 97, 2025080918, , BEST, 0, 10.3N, 18.0W, 25, 1006, DB

Hurricane2022, according to the BT, is not moving north but west to slightly WNW.

[ScottNAtlanta]

For what it's worth, the spin you see is moving around the monsoon gyre. That is what has been forecast. to move around the top before moving due west.

[OuterBanker]

Ten days of countless models ahead.

Zoloft sales are gonna skyrocket

[Cachondo23]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent

https://i.imgur.com/VBVX5yw.png

NHC’s X for 97L is very close of where Hurricane Hugo began its long trajectory. Obviously different atmosphere and time of the year but just curious.

[emeraldislenc]

Pretty amazing once some of the models shifted some today this board has gotten quite thus after noon.

[cycloneye]

The 20N 60W benchmark is the important position to see where it moves in that area. Most storms moving north of that position typically miss the U.S coastline,but Florence in 2018 tracked north of that position and look where it ended. It all depends on the ridges.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/StatsWeather/status/1954288490461757453


 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1954261313724510521

[StPeteMike]

https://imgur.com/KPSadGg

Looking at one of the old Irma models, we shall see if 97L does the curve or if it pulls an Irma and keeps tracking west.

[wxman57]

The disturbance is south of a large SAL outbreak at present, which should limit any development over the next few days. Beyond then, high pressure to its north will be rather weak. Any development should result in a turn to the north. While there is a good chance it will turn north and stay out to sea, if development is slower to occur, it could impact the NE Caribbean and possibly the East U.S. Coast. I still do not see this as a Gulf threat. There is just too much low pressure to its north.

[Nimbus]

The 20N 60W benchmark is the important position to see where it moves in that area. Most storms moving north of that position typically miss the U.S coastline,but Florence in 2018 tracked north of that position and look where it ended. It all depends on the ridges.

https://i.imgur.com/hKMzYpo.png

18Z run this evening started gaining latitude quicker than it did with the 12Z run which tracked out to sea, but when I went back and looked at the end of the 18Z run the Bermuda high was stronger and Erin tracked into Maine.