NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

It's honestly crazy to think that Josh Morgerman, let alone quite a few other newer and younger storm chasers, are basically about to experience a top-tier hurricane with not only high-end Category 5 winds but also an extremely low pressure, likely in the 900s or even possibly sub-900 (well, I'm aware that Josh has been through Haiyan, so perhaps this is something more related towards the newer chasers in the field). This isn't an experience that many around the world can say that they've had, so to say that I'm starting to feel a bit nervous on behalf of some of the people who decided to chase this storm, let alone the residents of Jamaica who are in the path, is a bit of an understatement. Hope they're ready for what's to come.

[eastcoastFL]

[USTropics]

The CDO is getting even smoother on recent meso floater frames. This is really pushing what is physically possible for an Atlantic storm.

I’m praying enough people in Jamaica have realized how bad this is and have taken all the necessary precautions, because I don’t like how public officials were downplaying Melissa’s threats a few days ago. Bad communication in a situation like this could lead to a devastating loss of life.

Even if they pack the shelters with tons of people, I'm starting to worry that structurally they may not be up to the task of this kind of storm intensity, like we're almost in 5+ territory. I guess the good news is it looks like Kingston will be spared a direct hit from the worst of the storm, if I were on the island I would head as far east as possible (though not on the coast).

When accounting for wind damage, I would strongly suggest heading as far east as possible. 99% of the structures built in Jamaica can only withstand cat3 force winds, not many structures will be left standing where the eyewall crosses imo.

The other issue with Jamaica (and the one I am most concerned with) is that most of these cities/towns are built in the valleys due to the mountainous terrain. The potential for 3-4+ feet of rain and period of significant wind bursts creates an enormous threat for mud and land slides.

[Owasso]

\

N-S pass?

[Keldeo1997]

Almost broke the record again.

[Teban54]

In addition to the continued CDO cooling, it has also expanded while somehow becoming even more symmetrical:

[Hurricane2022]

https://roiapi.dapiya.top/roi/page

[Woofde]

In addition to the continued CDO cooling, it has also expanded while somehow becoming even more symmetrical:

I was just about to post about this. It's nearly perfectly circular! Truly insane storm.

[dukeblue219]

I can't recall ever seeing such a perfectly consistent eye shape for so long.

[disassociated_vort]

Curious about a litte S2K history. Has there ever been a thread that hits triple digits in pages before landfall? Always impressed by this forum and collective knowledge.

[Kingarabian]

Loving the IR pics guys.

Jamaica: Thoughts and Prayers. Truly devastating

[InfernoFlameCat]

I do think this will surpass Milton at this rate

[Hurricane Mike]

Video on Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY03cvx7R_0

[eastcoastFL]

Curious about a litte S2K history. Has there ever been a thread that hits triple digits in pages before landfall? Always impressed by this forum and collective knowledge.

I'm pretty sure. The only reason this isn't higher is because it's not a CONUS threat.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Curious about a litte S2K history. Has there ever been a thread that hits triple digits in pages before landfall? Always impressed by this forum and collective knowledge.

Irma did I believe

[Teban54]

Reminder:

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

[eastcoastFL]

Reminder:

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

What is that supposed to mean? The NHC went with the 903mb.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1983015050139820153



uhhh

[Hurricane2022]

AI-VIS Dapiya

[Teban54]

Reminder:

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

What is that supposed to mean? The NHC went with the 903mb.

Oh sorry, that was a quote I posted before the last pass that was already completed. The 907 mb was from two passes ago.