NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

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Nimbus
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2161 Postby Nimbus » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:41 am

Beef Stew wrote:The only saving grace is that with a compact wind field and a more westerly track, Kingston should be spared significant wind damage. But eastern Jamaica will still have to contend with significant inland flooding I’m afraid…


Rain forecasts for Kingston probably won't end up historic, so people that live there will know where the flood and mud slide issues have occurred in the past and evacuate on the forecast. Dr Bird has some low elevation infrastructure that could be out for weeks though.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2162 Postby michelinj » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:41 am

Latest WV eye temp is -3.39C. Warmest yet
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2163 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:43 am

It's hard to tell for sure but just looking at satellite I think Melissa is moving faster than expected. We may be looking at a landfall before 9-10am.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2164 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:45 am

 https://x.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1982919662418694336

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2165 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:46 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:It's hard to tell for sure but just looking at satellite I think Melissa is moving faster than expected. We may be looking at a landfall before 9-10am.

Recon picked really bad time to be late then. It may not get there in time before landfall.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2166 Postby michelinj » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:47 am

Both HAFS models have played with the idea of a slight east shift just before landfall and I wonder if we're starting to see that at the moment. Not massive but potentially landfall more Treasure Beach/Alligator Pond than Treasure Beach/Black River. We'll see though may be a wobble relating to EWRC
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2167 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:49 am

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2168 Postby Blown Away » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:52 am

Image

Image

Melissa aiming for the Black River to Crane Corner area...
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2169 Postby Beef Stew » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:54 am

It’s going to be quite close for recon before landfall. And while looks can be deceiving, Melissa looks like she may well be intensifying…
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2170 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:54 am

Melissa’s position seems to be about 1 hr ahead of the 06z HAFS-A, so landfall is probably going to be around 14z (10am). Hoping recon can get there in time.

If there’s the tiniest silver lining to any of this, at least Melissa isn’t a nighttime landfall.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2171 Postby kevin » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:57 am

About 80 more minutes until recon should be at the center of Melissa. If Melissa's current movement holds it should be around 17.50N/78.15W so recon should still be there well before landfall and might even be able to perform 2 passes before landfall.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2172 Postby michelinj » Tue Oct 28, 2025 5:58 am

Recon is probably 2 hours away so I think we'll have time for a pass or two before landfall. The NOAA plane coming from FL however? Think that'll be too late now. Still good to get some data though
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2173 Postby Beef Stew » Tue Oct 28, 2025 6:04 am

Lightning is really exploding in the eyewall, concurrent with continued smoothing on IR. She very well may end up intensifying right up to landfall like many of the recent HAFS runs were predicting. I guess we'll see when recon arrives.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2174 Postby Nimbus » Tue Oct 28, 2025 6:06 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:It's hard to tell for sure but just looking at satellite I think Melissa is moving faster than expected. We may be looking at a landfall before 9-10am.


Core winds will be reaching Black river this morning so people would have to evacuate WNW to concrete high ground shelter in Montego bay now or shelter in place. Landfall this afternoon.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2175 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 28, 2025 6:06 am

Ryan is Live
2hrs 14min to landfall

https://www.youtube.com/live/qitHKtkqN_ ... jK4jnt-IPG
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2176 Postby aspen » Tue Oct 28, 2025 6:11 am

kevin wrote:About 80 more minutes until recon should be at the center of Melissa. If Melissa's current movement holds it should be around 17.50N/78.15W so recon should still be there well before landfall and might even be able to perform 2 passes before landfall.

I get 17.4-17.5N and 78.12W based on its movement between 5:55z (16.9N/78.5W) and 10:45z (17.3N/78.2W). Even assuming it’s a little faster, it should still be off the coast when recon arrives.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2177 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Tue Oct 28, 2025 6:12 am

michelinj wrote:Latest WV eye temp is -3.39C. Warmest yet


-3.1C! Image

Edit: Up to -3.1C again just now.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2178 Postby ATDoel » Tue Oct 28, 2025 6:17 am

Looks like the eye is growing larger? I thought they usually constricted before landfall
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2179 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Oct 28, 2025 6:18 am

 https://x.com/TheSteveCop/status/1983126666932109425

 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1983130691404480557

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#2180 Postby michelinj » Tue Oct 28, 2025 6:20 am

ATDoel wrote:Looks like the eye is growing larger? I thought they usually constricted before landfall

I think it's due to completion of an eyewall merger this morning, unfortunately probably means it's strengthening again.
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