ATL: ERIN - Models

[Beef Stew]

I certainly can’t recall the last time I saw the icon bring a storm down to the 920’s from a ~1000 mb initialization.

I still think the more noteworthy piece here though is another SW shift. I expect that the windshield wipers are still in full effect this far out and the next suite could very well shift back to the east, but if nothing else the latest trends highlight that no one in the Antilles nor US East Coast should be feeling fully comfortable yet.

The 0Z 168 Icon is not only well SW of the 12Z 180, but it’s also still moving NW by WNW and isn’t headed N into a trough like it was on 12Z.

Fully agree Larry- that SW ‘shift’ is from that different synoptic setup which is a pretty notable change from what we’ve largely been seeing consistently in prior runs. Time will tell if this is something that holds weight or not.

[AutoPenalti]

[Ian2401]

HAFS models running. HAFS-B has Erin lose a ridiculous (seemingly unrealistic ?) amount of latitude in just 24 hours. Center is hovering right at about 16N by 00z Wednesday. Hard to tell if it is center reformations going on, the synoptic set up, or a combination of both that is shoving it that far south that quickly

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1955130511761809563

[Hurricaneman]

The fact that the HAFS A and B are showing this dipping below 16N could be a problem for the lesser Antilles

[zzzh]

00Z GEFS trended SW

[Hurricaneman]

00Z GEFS trended SW

Yep and the operational is on the very eastern side side of the envelope

[AutoPenalti]

00Z GEFS trended SW

Not really, if anything it’s shifted further north by hour 132.

[kevin]

Very interesting (aka nerve-racking) days ahead. If I had to make a bet I'd still say OTS from the US, but the models have been trending much more SW over the last 24 hours than I expected. Today and tomorrow will be important, especially so we can verify if/how much latitude Erin loses in reality.

[zzzh]

00Z GEFS trended SW

Not really, if anything it’s shifted further north by hour 132.

Where do you see the north trend?

[kevin]

00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B about 1.5 degrees north compared to their ominous 18z runs. So not as crazy anymore, but also still about 1.5 degrees south of the NHC forecast.

[AutoPenalti]

00Z GEFS trended SW

Not really, if anything it’s shifted further north by hour 132.

https://i.imgur.com/fQmWFN6.gif
Where do you see the north trend?

Compared the spaghetti plots from 18z and 0z on weathernerds

[ElectricStorm]

Both HAFS runs are weaker than 12z and 18z runs so far, taking longer to reach hurricane strength than before.

Edit: Starts to intensify much quicker once it gets to 55W which seems pretty reasonable

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: still recurves well offshore the Conus but at 73W, which is significantly further W than the 69-70W of the prior 2 full runs.

[kevin]

00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B take longer to blow up than in the 18z runs, but at the end they both end up similar in strength or stronger than previous runs. Seems like they follow the ICON scenario of slower initial intensification and then RI towards the end of the run.

00z HAFS-A = 933 mb (126hr) / 126 kt (114hr), ends at 20.1N/60.8W, 0.9 deg north of 18z but still 1.5 deg south of the NHC forecast
00z HAFS-B = 946 mb (126 hr) / 103 kt (111hr), ends at 20.5N/60.2W, 1.9 deg north of 18z but still 1.0 deg south of the NHC forecast

[otowntiger]

0z GFS decent shift back to the right, i.e. north, east. Windshield wiper effect in full mode now.

[kevin]

06z ICON shifts about 1 degree to the west at +120hr = 21.0N/63.7W in the 06z run compared to 21.1N/62.8W in the 00z run. This places the 06z run about 90 miles SW of the NHC forecast track at the +120hr point.

ICON used to be farther north than the NHC forecast, but has consistently shifted SW during the last couple of runs. Yesterday's 12z run was about 130 miles farther NE than today's 06z run.

[DunedinDave]

Biggest differences in models is when the turn happens. GFS wants to do it this weekend while the Euro is next Tuesday. ICON more closely aligned with Euro.

I guess the big question is whether there’s a high pressure strong enough to steer this into the US or not. Right now I don’t think so but I think by Thursday we will have a good idea of when this will turn…assuming it does.

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS decent shift to the N/E - recurves just W of Bermuda. Looks like yesterday's 18Z was a Fluke.

[GCANE]

Euro, run-to-run, is showing a trend for an impact on VI and PR.
Heads up.