NATL: MELISSA - Models

[LarryWx]

Gotta give it to both the GFS and the UKMET for their consistency, even if they end up being dead wrong.

Speaking of the UKMET, the 12Z has a similar path with it still weak although it has been ending up slightly further N at the ends of the last few runs. Earlier runs were going into Nicaragua and falling apart. Then they were going toward the Nic/Hond border and/or skimming the N coast of Hond. This latest one moves WNW toward the end of the run into the open southern Gulf of Honduras and stalls without falling apart and appears to be starting to strengthen:

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.10.2025 0 14.2N 73.9W 1004 35
0000UTC 23.10.2025 12 15.5N 74.8W 1003 39
1200UTC 23.10.2025 24 15.5N 75.8W 1004 36
0000UTC 24.10.2025 36 15.7N 76.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 24.10.2025 48 15.6N 76.2W 1004 26
0000UTC 25.10.2025 60 15.6N 76.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 25.10.2025 72 15.8N 77.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 26.10.2025 84 15.6N 78.3W 1004 27
1200UTC 26.10.2025 96 15.7N 79.7W 1004 25
0000UTC 27.10.2025 108 15.6N 81.4W 1003 22
1200UTC 27.10.2025 120 15.2N 82.6W 1003 24
0000UTC 28.10.2025 132 15.5N 83.7W 1004 20
1200UTC 28.10.2025 144 16.3N 84.8W 1005 23
0000UTC 29.10.2025 156 16.4N 86.3W 1005 27
1200UTC 29.10.2025 168 16.6N 86.5W 1004 34

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z GFS with 62 inches on rain on Hispaniola. This is more more than twice the record rainfall for a storm (Matthew 2016, 30 inches), and in fact is more than the average annual rainfall! I don't think the magnitude of this potential disaster can be overstated.

[Fancy1002]

Gotta give it to both the GFS and the UKMET for their consistency, even if they end up being dead wrong.

Speaking of the UKMET, the 12Z has a similar path with it still weak although it has been inching further N at the ends of the last few runs. Earlier runs were going into Nicaragua and falling apart. Then they were going toward the Nic/Hond border and/or skimming the N coast of Hond. This latest one goes into the open southern Gulf of Honduras and stalls without falling apart and appears to be starting to strengthen:

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.10.2025 0 14.2N 73.9W 1004 35
0000UTC 23.10.2025 12 15.5N 74.8W 1003 39
1200UTC 23.10.2025 24 15.5N 75.8W 1004 36
0000UTC 24.10.2025 36 15.7N 76.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 24.10.2025 48 15.6N 76.2W 1004 26
0000UTC 25.10.2025 60 15.6N 76.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 25.10.2025 72 15.8N 77.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 26.10.2025 84 15.6N 78.3W 1004 27
1200UTC 26.10.2025 96 15.7N 79.7W 1004 25
0000UTC 27.10.2025 108 15.6N 81.4W 1003 22
1200UTC 27.10.2025 120 15.2N 82.6W 1003 24
0000UTC 28.10.2025 132 15.5N 83.7W 1004 20
1200UTC 28.10.2025 144 16.3N 84.8W 1005 23
0000UTC 29.10.2025 156 16.4N 86.3W 1005 27
1200UTC 29.10.2025 168 16.6N 86.5W 1004 34

I stand slightly corrected, sort of.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z CMC track is very similar to 00z but it did inch a little closer to South Florida, crossing mid Cuba and the southern part of Andros Island. Something to keep an eye on in future runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z CMC track is very similar to 00z but it did inch a little closer to South Florida, crossing mid Cuba and the southern part of Andros Island. Something to keep an eye on in future runs.

CMC then goes on to slam Melissa into the Jersey Shore and Long Island in the long range.

[Fancy1002]

Looks Like CMC wants a stronger Sandy.

[SouthFLTropics]

Happy Halloween NYC!!!

[Fancy1002]

This is just my opinion based on the model runs over the last few days. If Melissa gets close enough to slightly hit or barely scrape by South Florida, a direct hit on the northeast is pretty much guaranteed.

[Fancy1002]

https://i.imgur.com/49wdwWq.png

Happy Halloween NYC!!!

On a Friday, 13 years later, what are the odds lol.

[boca]

Florida might be almost in the clear I’m keeping a close eye on Melissa since I’m going on a cruise next week to Cozumel.

[Fancy1002]

HMON is way sw so far.

[kevin]

HAFS-B is going nuclear again. Intensifying at 900 mb and still 15 hours remaining this run.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro goes nuclear to the 920's.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro ravages Jamaica then has a cat 4/5 landfall on Guantanamo Bay


After this it manages to slip in the gap between Nova Scotia and newfoundland and hit in upper Quebec/Côte-Nord.

[chaser1]

12z CMC track is very similar to 00z but it did inch a little closer to South Florida, crossing mid Cuba and the southern part of Andros Island. Something to keep an eye on in future runs.

Okay, someone said it Hey, I don't know whether I buy into how far west CMC takes Melissa but if one simply ignores the GFS forecast track for Melissa for the moment, they'll plainly see the 500 mb vorticity flow forecast for the Caribbean beginning at 42 hr's forward. Btw, that ridging is similarly forecast by every single other model. Point being, that IF the GFS is incorrect in the short term 12-48 hr period, then yeah we might have no choice but to acknowledge a big gorilla in the room (AND which forest she intends to threaten).

[aspen]

12z HAFS-B ends with 175 kt and 884mb…and still intensifying.

Probably would’ve bottomed out in the 870s if the run went out an extra 6 hours.

[Travorum]

Final frame of the 12z HAFS-B:

[chaser1]

Florida might be almost in the clear I’m keeping a close eye on Melissa since I’m going on a cruise next week to Cozumel.

Ha!? Departing this Sunday on Celebrity by chance??
A couple of my best friends are doing the same. Bimini first, then to Cozumel, and then Grand Caymen. I believe SoFlTropics from our forum here is also on a Caribbean cruise next week.

[chaser1]

12z Euro ravages Jamaica then has a cat 4/5 landfall on Guantanamo Bay
https://i.postimg.cc/FKjLPctw/floop-ecmwf-full-2025102212-sfcwind-mslp-caribbean.gif

After this it manages to slip in the gap between Nova Scotia and newfoundland and hit in upper Quebec.

INTERESTING! Looking closely, the EURO begins to make Melissa's northeast turn right around 144 hrs. CMC does the same at the same time frame, albeit from a further west longitude. I havnt looked yet to see the other model (GFS excluded) forecast point where they too show the storm making her northward or NE turn. The mid-term steering picture may finally becoming a bit more clear once we get past today & tomorrow.

[boca]

Florida might be almost in the clear I’m keeping a close eye on Melissa since I’m going on a cruise next week to Cozumel.

Ha!? Departing this Sunday on Celebrity by chance??

NCL on Wednesday the 29th