NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Travorum]

You mean western eyewall?

The north jog just now means he may get the absolute center.

Where is he? Hope he gets nailed, not wishing injury to him of course.

Josh is at the pinned location below:

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1983195992360136880

[tallywx]

Center of the eye may miss Josh to the west.

[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/LKuCdtq[/imgur]

[ATDoel]

hurricanes always follow the path of least resistance, considering the tallest mountains in Jamaica are on the central/east side it isn't too surprising Melissa is scooting NNW.

[Exalt]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

[ATDoel]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

I think the chance is low, most likely is strong 4 / weak 5. Jamaica will do damage to it, but the west side is flatter and the core is really compact so it may not be much.

[aspen]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

I doubt it, ~5 hours over Jamaica should disrupt the core enough to prevent a Cat 5. However, a 4 is probably likely.

[NotAHurricane]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

Mid-range cat 4 at minimum, but at 185mph, I think hitting Cuba as a cat 5 is not out of the question anymore.

[Exalt]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

I doubt it, ~5 hours over Jamaica should disrupt the core enough to prevent a Cat 5. However, a 4 is probably likely.

I just worry the jog over the flatter side of Jamaica combined with how resilient this thing is that if it has enough time to recoup in between it won’t have degraded all that much

[mrbagyo]

looks like Josh might miss the center of the eye to the west, he'll get raked by the brutal east side

[Beef Stew]

A category 5 storm requires everything to be nearly perfect to maintain intensity, and 4+ hours over elevation is going to be... significantly less than perfect. I'd be very surprised if she's able to maintain structural integrity and/or recover quickly enough to put a category 5 Cuba landfall into play, but it's not an impossibility. I'd say the odds are low, but I'm by no means a professional. I do suspect her to be at least a category 4- and possibly quite a strong one- still however.

[Nimbus]

Black river getting the worst of this hope the 4 churches had busses and got out.

[ATDoel]

A category 5 storm requires everything to be nearly perfect to maintain intensity, and 4+ hours over elevation is going to be... significantly less than perfect. I'd be very surprised if she's able to maintain structural integrity and/or recover quickly enough to put a category 5 Cuba landfall into play, but it's not an impossibility. I'd say the odds are low, but I'm by no means a professional. I do suspect her to be at least a category 4- and possibly quite a strong one- still however.

Roughly 12 hours before it hits Cuba, it's so strong it'll take some time for it to wind down.

[aspen]

Finally starting to see some degradation of the eyewall on IR imagery.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JeremyDeHartWX/status/1983202872503525870

[Tireman4]

https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/melis ... dium=email

[Teban54]

It's quite possible that the landfall will be announced as in White House, Jamaica:

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983201811977908328

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1983195056287940892

[GCANE]

NE eyewall is running the coast.
Absolutely tragic.