NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

3pm Video Update on Hurricane Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viSXsGNd0N8

[CrazyC83]

This is UNOFFICIAL, but here is how I would place the BT as of now.

AL132025, MELISSA, xx,
20251020, 1200, , LO, 13.5N, 66.5W, 30, 1008,
20251020, 1800, , LO, 13.7N, 67.7W, 35, 1006,
20251021, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 68.9W, 35, 1005,
20251021, 0600, , LO, 14.1N, 70.1W, 40, 1004,
20251021, 1200, , LO, 14.1N, 71.3W, 40, 1003,
20251021, 1800, , LO, 14.1N, 72.5W, 40, 1002,
20251022, 0000, , TS, 14.1N, 73.2W, 45, 1002,
20251022, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 73.4W, 45, 1001,
20251022, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.6W, 45, 1000,
20251022, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 73.9W, 40, 1002,
20251023, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 74.3W, 40, 1004,
20251023, 0600, , TS, 14.8N, 74.6W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1200, , TS, 15.2N, 75.0W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1800, , TS, 15.5N, 75.3W, 40, 1002,
20251024, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 75.6W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 0600, , TS, 16.0N, 75.3W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 1200, , TS, 15.8N, 74.9W, 45, 1000,
20251024, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 74.5W, 50, 996,
20251025, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 74.7W, 55, 993,
20251025, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 74.9W, 60, 986,
20251025, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 75.1W, 65, 983,
20251025, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 75.3W, 70, 977,
20251026, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 75.7W, 85, 970,
20251026, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 76.0W, 100, 957,
20251026, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 76.4W, 110, 952,
20251026, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 76.9W, 120, 944,
20251027, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 77.3W, 130, 932,
20251027, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 77.7W, 135, 922,
20251027, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 78.0W, 145, 913,
20251027, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 78.3W, 155, 906,
20251028, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 78.6W, 155, 905,
20251028, 0600, , HU, 16.9N, 78.4W, 155, 900,
20251028, 1200, , HU, 17.5N, 78.1W, 165, 894,
20251028, 1400, I, HU, 17.9N, 78.0W, 170, 892,
20251028, 1700, L, HU, 18.1N, 78.0W, 160, 897,
20251028, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 77.9W, 140, 910,

Much more will come as the rest of the lifespan unfolds, but the rationale for the peak intensity is a blend of the 179 kt FL winds (which translate to 161 kt at the surface) with limited observations (hence a higher intensity seems reasonable), the 172 kt dropsonde and the T8.0 Dvorak reading at the time, plus the continued pressure drop. The peak likely occurred at 1400Z. 175 kt was also considered using the dropsonde at face value, but I took a look back at the fixes to get to that.

Also, the 892 mb pressure is analyzed as the absolute low, based on the 893 mb about 30 minutes later, and slight filling before landfall due to the slight CDO warming.

[Exalt]

This is UNOFFICIAL, but here is how I would place the BT as of now.

AL132025, MELISSA, xx,
20251020, 1200, , LO, 13.5N, 66.5W, 30, 1008,
20251020, 1800, , LO, 13.7N, 67.7W, 35, 1006,
20251021, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 68.9W, 35, 1005,
20251021, 0600, , LO, 14.1N, 70.1W, 40, 1004,
20251021, 1200, , LO, 14.1N, 71.3W, 40, 1003,
20251021, 1800, , LO, 14.1N, 72.5W, 40, 1002,
20251022, 0000, , TS, 14.1N, 73.2W, 45, 1002,
20251022, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 73.4W, 45, 1001,
20251022, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.6W, 45, 1000,
20251022, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 73.9W, 40, 1002,
20251023, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 74.3W, 40, 1004,
20251023, 0600, , TS, 14.8N, 74.6W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1200, , TS, 15.2N, 75.0W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1800, , TS, 15.5N, 75.3W, 40, 1002,
20251024, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 75.6W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 0600, , TS, 16.0N, 75.3W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 1200, , TS, 15.8N, 74.9W, 45, 1000,
20251024, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 74.5W, 50, 996,
20251025, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 74.7W, 55, 993,
20251025, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 74.9W, 60, 986,
20251025, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 75.1W, 65, 983,
20251025, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 75.3W, 70, 977,
20251026, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 75.7W, 85, 970,
20251026, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 76.0W, 100, 957,
20251026, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 76.4W, 110, 952,
20251026, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 76.9W, 120, 944,
20251027, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 77.3W, 130, 932,
20251027, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 77.7W, 135, 922,
20251027, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 78.0W, 145, 913,
20251027, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 78.3W, 155, 906,
20251028, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 78.6W, 155, 905,
20251028, 0600, , HU, 16.9N, 78.4W, 155, 900,
20251028, 1200, , HU, 17.5N, 78.1W, 165, 894,
20251028, 1400, I, HU, 17.9N, 78.0W, 170, 892,
20251028, 1700, L, HU, 18.1N, 78.0W, 160, 897,
20251028, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 77.9W, 140, 910,

Much more will come as the rest of the lifespan unfolds, but the rationale for the peak intensity is a blend of the 179 kt FL winds (which translate to 161 kt at the surface) with limited observations (hence a higher intensity seems reasonable), the 172 kt dropsonde and the T8.0 Dvorak reading at the time, plus the continued pressure drop. The peak likely occurred at 1400Z. 175 kt was also considered using the dropsonde at face value, but I took a look back at the fixes to get to that.

Also, the 892 mb pressure is analyzed as the absolute low, based on the 893 mb about 30 minutes later, and slight filling before landfall due to the slight CDO warming.

Is there anything to make of the T8.5 estimate from not too long before?

[CrazyC83]

This is UNOFFICIAL, but here is how I would place the BT as of now.

AL132025, MELISSA, xx,
20251020, 1200, , LO, 13.5N, 66.5W, 30, 1008,
20251020, 1800, , LO, 13.7N, 67.7W, 35, 1006,
20251021, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 68.9W, 35, 1005,
20251021, 0600, , LO, 14.1N, 70.1W, 40, 1004,
20251021, 1200, , LO, 14.1N, 71.3W, 40, 1003,
20251021, 1800, , LO, 14.1N, 72.5W, 40, 1002,
20251022, 0000, , TS, 14.1N, 73.2W, 45, 1002,
20251022, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 73.4W, 45, 1001,
20251022, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.6W, 45, 1000,
20251022, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 73.9W, 40, 1002,
20251023, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 74.3W, 40, 1004,
20251023, 0600, , TS, 14.8N, 74.6W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1200, , TS, 15.2N, 75.0W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1800, , TS, 15.5N, 75.3W, 40, 1002,
20251024, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 75.6W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 0600, , TS, 16.0N, 75.3W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 1200, , TS, 15.8N, 74.9W, 45, 1000,
20251024, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 74.5W, 50, 996,
20251025, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 74.7W, 55, 993,
20251025, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 74.9W, 60, 986,
20251025, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 75.1W, 65, 983,
20251025, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 75.3W, 70, 977,
20251026, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 75.7W, 85, 970,
20251026, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 76.0W, 100, 957,
20251026, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 76.4W, 110, 952,
20251026, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 76.9W, 120, 944,
20251027, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 77.3W, 130, 932,
20251027, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 77.7W, 135, 922,
20251027, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 78.0W, 145, 913,
20251027, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 78.3W, 155, 906,
20251028, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 78.6W, 155, 905,
20251028, 0600, , HU, 16.9N, 78.4W, 155, 900,
20251028, 1200, , HU, 17.5N, 78.1W, 165, 894,
20251028, 1400, I, HU, 17.9N, 78.0W, 170, 892,
20251028, 1700, L, HU, 18.1N, 78.0W, 160, 897,
20251028, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 77.9W, 140, 910,

Much more will come as the rest of the lifespan unfolds, but the rationale for the peak intensity is a blend of the 179 kt FL winds (which translate to 161 kt at the surface) with limited observations (hence a higher intensity seems reasonable), the 172 kt dropsonde and the T8.0 Dvorak reading at the time, plus the continued pressure drop. The peak likely occurred at 1400Z. 175 kt was also considered using the dropsonde at face value, but I took a look back at the fixes to get to that.

Also, the 892 mb pressure is analyzed as the absolute low, based on the 893 mb about 30 minutes later, and slight filling before landfall due to the slight CDO warming.

Is there anything to make of the T8.5 estimate from not too long before?

That was the ADT which was running a little hot.

[SteveM]

She looks a mess now on IR, hopefully good news for Cuba.

[IsabelaWeather]

She looks a mess now on IR, hopefully good news for Cuba.

Not to me, the eye was always going to close up, the question is if the circulation got disrupted. If it didnt then the eye will open again quickly.

[Ed_2001]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMBPM0KYLgo

Montego Bay probably entered the inner eyewall around 30 minutes ago. Full on whiteout and winds looks well in excess of 100 mph.

To think, it's still this intense after already traversing 20+ miles of relatively mountainous land...

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JamaicaGleaner/status/1983242701425266924

[CrazyC83]

 https://x.com/JamaicaGleaner/status/1983242701425266924

That was outside the RMW too?

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983243059950158267

[CrazyC83]

She looks a mess now on IR, hopefully good news for Cuba.

Not to me, the eye was always going to close up, the question is if the circulation got disrupted. If it didnt then the eye will open again quickly.

When does Recon get back in after Jamaica? That will tell how much it weakened, and if the circulation got disrupted. If it is intact, then yes it could get going quickly, but if disrupted, it would likely be steady state to Cuba.

[Nimbus]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMBPM0KYLgo

Montego Bay probably entered the inner eyewall around 30 minutes ago. Full on whiteout and winds looks well in excess of 100 mph.

To think, it's still this intense after already traversing 20+ miles of relatively mountainous land...

Palm tree is flopping around like maybe 50 knots but that may be in a protected area.
When the center gets back out over the water the winds from the WNW may be heavier.

[Ed_2001]

Palm tree is flopping around like maybe 50 knots but that may be in a protected area.
When the center gets back out over the water the winds from the WNW may be heavier.

There’s no way that’s only 50 knots winds with this degree of whiteout.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983260165563658250

[Nimbus]

Palm tree is flopping around like maybe 50 knots but that may be in a protected area.
When the center gets back out over the water the winds from the WNW may be heavier.

There’s no way that’s only 50 knots winds with this degree of whiteout.

38 with 58 at the airport now

28 05:00 E 38 G 54 0.00 Heavy Rain and Windy BKN010 OVC045 77 75.2 94% 78 0 0.0

[mitchell]

Here is the historic list that Melissa has joined.

https://i.imgur.com/3JM0cW8.jpeg

Why is the 1932 Cuba Hurricane not on this list? Wiki article says it had 175 mph sustained winds and made multiple landfalls in Cuba and Bahamas.
The article also claims it is the latest in the season Cat 5, in November, and the longest duration at Cat 5.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Cuba_hurricane

[galaxy401]

The worst damage from this storm appears to be the heavy flooding that's occurring in the mountains. That would create terrible landslides. They are no joke at all.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/Jeff_Piotrowski/status/1983259137816572074

[Beef Stew]

Here is the historic list that Melissa has joined.

https://i.imgur.com/3JM0cW8.jpeg

Why is the 1932 Cuba Hurricane not on this list? Wiki article says it had 175 mph sustained winds and made multiple landfalls in Cuba and Bahamas.
The article also claims it is the latest in the season Cat 5, in November, and the longest duration at Cat 5.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Cuba_hurricane

IIRC, the 1932 Cuba Hurricane didn't actually make landfall at category 5 strength.

[GCANE]

post removed