NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Melissa after landfall looking like a "mature" cyclone. The october big eyed storms. Much larger eyewall.

Agreed these have large wind and precipitation fields and so damage is more widespread.
Larger eye hopefully won't go below 940 again NHC still kept her at cat 3 for destructive potential.
Cuba needs to get their final preps done.
At least she is moving faster now so the precip totals will only have hours not days.

Interesting enough the wind field hasn't changed at all over the past few days. Last advisory the NHC still had hurricane force winds 30 miles from center. It's basically a large tornado.

[eastcoastFL]

What’s going on with the AF plane? They’re circling at ~5200 gpm, still several hundred miles out from Melissa.

I've been wondering the same thing. I couldn't tell if maybe it was some other type of mission to sample the air. But it seems like an odd time and place for that.

[tropicwatch]

GITMO reporting sustained 38mph winds gusts to 61mph at 8:51pm eastern

[Kazmit]

It also seems to be moving more northeast - that would give it a bit more time over water.

Well east after being west of the forecast its entire life. Watching this closely here in Bermuda.

[disassociated_vort]

GITMO reporting sustained 38mph winds gusts to 61mph at 8:51pm eastern

I saw the base was partially evacutated of non-essential personnel. How vulnerable is GITMO to a landfalling storm like this?

[Beef Stew]

What’s going on with the AF plane? They’re circling at ~5200 gpm, still several hundred miles out from Melissa.

I've been wondering the same thing. Can't figure it out- they must be having a technical issue or something.

[Ptarmigan]

The damage in Jamaica is going to be horrendous. Melissa has broken many records.

[Teban54]

Obviously Melissa has countless other more notable records that have been mentioned today, but here's another one: Melissa has the 8th longest duration as a Category 5 (among the 45 known Cat 5s), spending 1 day 11 hours at that intensity.

Many Cat 5s don't last long before weakening, often due to EWRCs. The two other Cat 5s this year only stayed there for 12 hours or less. Even many impressive Cat 5s, like Milton, Dorian and Maria, lasted a few hours less than Melissa.

The 7 storms that lasted longer than Melissa as Cat 5s are: Cuba 1932, Allen, Irma, Ivan, David, Mitch, and Isabel.

[cycloneye]

Possible revision for the TCR.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983305086211371411

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/ameliaUrquhart_/status/1983345085380210963

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/StormHQwx/status/1983349251058045273

[edu2703]

I'm watching the footage of the damage in Black River. Total destruction. The entire town is basically gone.

The damage is definitely consistent with a C5 hurricane.

[bob rulz]

 https://x.com/ameliaUrquhart_/status/1983345085380210963

Its satellite presentation could fool me, it certainly looks like it's rapidly reorganizing. Though looks can be deceiving. I don't think we can know for sure until a plane gets in there again.

What happened to the plane that sampled the storm right after emerging from the coast?

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like the AF plane is going in now

[Beef Stew]

I'm watching the footage of the damage in Black River. Total destruction. The entire town is basically gone.

The damage is definitely consistent with a C5 hurricane.

Do you have a link you could share?

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

It also seems to be moving more northeast - that would give it a bit more time over water.

Well east after being west of the forecast its entire life. Watching this closely here in Bermuda.

https://i.ibb.co/xKgGVM7c/tccapture.gif

What site is this? I don’t have one that plots the forecast points as an overlay.

[edu2703]

I'm watching the footage of the damage in Black River. Total destruction. The entire town is basically gone.

The damage is definitely consistent with a C5 hurricane.

Do you have a link you could share?

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983342092048076821



 https://x.com/DiggleMassyca/status/1983346327368138982







 https://x.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1983334908518117876

[Michele B]

The level of intensity that Jamaica took from Melissa is surprising. Are "perfect" storms like Melissa, particularly vulnerable to severe attenuation , in comparison to your normal run of the mill big blob Cat III or the like?

Generally, yes. The way I like to think of it is this: which is going to be an easier repair job if you crash it- a 2005 Ford F150 or a brand new Ferrari?

A category 5, especially an upper echelon one like Melissa, is a highly refined, highly sensitive heat engine. It performs at the highest standards as a cyclone can, but any little perturbation can quickly spiral and cause a huge disruption (think Delta in 2020) that can be difficult to recover from. A run of the mill cat 3, as you mentioned- or certainly a lesser storm- might be more resilient to having its circulation disrupted by land, shear, etc because it doesn’t have to be as efficient, as perfect by nature- that’s why it’s not a C4 or 5.

If circulation can persist, a former category 5 can reintensify at a good pace if conditions are favorable, but after traversing significant elevation it’s never a seamless process.

Great points. Also add the fact that the sea temps are nowhere as warm as they were on the south side of Jamaica. Not as much fuel for Melissa.

[Ptarmigan]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4496/hGGbpm.gif

I would not be surprised if Melissa was still intensifying upon landfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

The level of intensity that Jamaica took from Melissa is surprising. Are "perfect" storms like Melissa, particularly vulnerable to severe attenuation , in comparison to your normal run of the mill big blob Cat III or the like?

Generally, yes. The way I like to think of it is this: which is going to be an easier repair job if you crash it- a 2005 Ford F150 or a brand new Ferrari?

A category 5, especially an upper echelon one like Melissa, is a highly refined, highly sensitive heat engine. It performs at the highest standards as a cyclone can, but any little perturbation can quickly spiral and cause a huge disruption (think Delta in 2020) that can be difficult to recover from. A run of the mill cat 3, as you mentioned- or certainly a lesser storm- might be more resilient to having its circulation disrupted by land, shear, etc because it doesn’t have to be as efficient, as perfect by nature- that’s why it’s not a C4 or 5.

If circulation can persist, a former category 5 can reintensify at a good pace if conditions are favorable, but after traversing significant elevation it’s never a seamless process.

Great points. Also add the fact that the sea temps are nowhere as warm as they were on the south side of Jamaica. Not as much fuel for Melissa.

I dunno, the original core still seems to be intact and it’s getting its act together pretty quickly. Obviously won’t reach the same peak it did before, but it doesn’t seem to care if the waters it’s traversing now aren’t as optimal as they were south of Jamaica.