ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

From Thursday night, we will have much more information as the squadron begins the missions so the position of the center / eye will be clear with the planes and of course how strong Erin is. Also the models will be feeded by the data from the gulfstream jet.

[zzzh]

The center actually extends from 16.0N to 15.8N

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/pfbeVTr.png
Disagree with NHC's position estimate. Scatterometer clearly shows that the center is at 16N

Something I just noticed on the Univ of Wisconsin site is that when you look at vorticity from 925 up to 700, it is south of where Erin is indicated to be. Do they get that position from NHC? If they do, it doesn't pan out with where all the vorticity is. That vorticity to the east might be adding an unknown as well.
https://i.imgur.com/RjDM4Ft.gif

From the NHC 11 PM discussion.

Satellite images show that a solid area of convection remains near
Erin, with low-cloud motions suggesting the center is on the
northeastern side of the thunderstorm activity.

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/pfbeVTr.png
Disagree with NHC's position estimate. Scatterometer clearly shows that the center is at 16N.

Comparing this to satellite imagery at the time (2.5 hours ago), it seems to show that Erin was almost perfectly stacked, with the convective towers only slightly west of the LLC or not at all. That's a significant improvement from most of the day, when the naked LLC was north of the convection.

[zzzh]

There is some northeasterly shear, but it shouldn't take too long for the convection to wrap around

[canebeard]

11 pm Discussion:

There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts
Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

At least it is QUITE certain that a hurricane will be in the Atlantic Ocean.

[Hurricaneman]

Erin looks like she’s about to intensify pretty soon