ATL: ERIN - Models

[chris_fit]

Looks like indeed shifting back to the E on the GFS 12z at around 150hrs

[AutoPenalti]

Could pose a problem for Bermuda again...

[TampaWxLurker]

Slower, further east/south and 10mb weaker at 174 hours, but looks like it'll be uncomfortably close to Bermuda again.

[TampaWxLurker]

Tropical Tidbits spazzing out a bit and jumps from 174 hrs to 192 hrs on my view, but between those 2 frames it makes a pretty sharp turn NE and is actually just EAST of Bermuda. But Bermuda is getting the nastiness on this run.

[chris_fit]

12Z CMC big shift E

[sasha_B]

The 12z HAFS models (A and B both) show immediate rapid intensification, with Erin as a hurricane within 18 hours. Seems strange given the downward trend in intensity modeling and the storm's poor convective performance this morning - the HAFS-A output is especially unusual with a high-end Cat 2 (94 kts, 969 hPa) by forecast hour 24. What happened to the initialisation this run to cause such a sudden shift?

Edit: Looking at the simulated LWIR products, it seems like they overdid the level of central convection at initialisation. The wind and pressure outputs look accurate at first but the simulated IR shows that this round of hurricane models assumed that a CDO would establish itself quickly, which has not been the case.

[DunedinDave]

So far a lot of good news with the 12z models, especially for Fla. let’s hope the trend continues.

CMC has shifted way east
GFS is turning it pretty quickly and out to sea now.
ICON doesn’t go out far enough but it does give it a good turn although not a sharp one.
Most all GFS ensembles keep this way offshore.

[AutoPenalti]

12z Euro running, will it complete the sweep?

[DunedinDave]

12z Euro running, will it complete the sweep?

Looks like it. Everyone seems to be on board with a recurve. Big east trend today although Euro is close enough to Carolina coast to give those folks something to watch. But looking better for Florida as of now.

[BobHarlem]

Can't really look at the models today, but noticed the hurricane models (particularly the HAFS) going from weak TS to cat 2 hurricane in the span of 6 hours tonight. Something is really off with the 12z models today, either that or the evening satellite loop is going to be one for the ages.

[aspen]

HWRF is finally running. Shows Erin getting down to 16N but starts turning sharply north as it nears the islands.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm noticing the models with the sharpest turns towards the NW/N are the ones showing a stronger system. Makes me wonder if she maintains her raggedy appearance longer than forecast if she chugs further west?

[lsuhurricane]

Quite a few Euro ensembles members are scraping the northern PR coast and nearly approach landfall in the Dominican Republic.

[LarryWx]

12Z JMA: Bermuda at 192

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1955355577984655639

[cycloneye]

A little bit more north from islands at 18z and more bullish on intensity.

[Cachondo23]

A little bit more north from islands at 18z and more bullish on intensity.

https://i.imgur.com/VH5XxC4.png

https://i.imgur.com/uRRXt8o.png

Trend does look like NE Caribbean should be safe from this one even if it continues to go WSW at times

[Hurrilurker]

Rare to see all the models that tightly clustered, and that far out. Seems there is little mystery with this one (although if I loved anywhere in the East Coast US, Caribbean, or Bermuda, I'd be watching it closely).

[BobHarlem]

Rare to see all the models that tightly clustered, and that far out. Seems there is little mystery with this one (although if I loved anywhere in the East Coast US, Caribbean, or Bermuda, I'd be watching it closely).

Models are clustering around the forecasted break in the ridge, which is still pretty likely. It leaves a spot for the storm to go up into. That changing is enough to shift the cluster a bit, but so far so good. If your curious what to look for in cases where they were clusterd and it still didn't happen This link is about the point where we are now (Based on the NHC's lat/lon) in the old Irma thread. Setup was pretty different then, so I don't expect a repeat of that. But it shows how the ridging changing threw it all off.

Link to ensembles when irma was at 40W (Not embedding as it is probably too confusing -- but it showed a pretty clear ots, with only like 3-5 members hitting the US, none of which are really even close to what eventually happened) also early model plots for around the same longitude.

[aspen]

18z HWRF initializes the anemic, spotty convective structure pretty well. It spends the next day or so building that up before starting RI by Friday morning.

The HAFS models have much worse initializations and keep this as a disorganized TS all the way past 60W.