NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[aspen]

I’m surprised its core made it over Jamaica somewhat unscathed. Good thing it’s moving quickly and has less than 10 hours until landfall, or else we could’ve been looking at another 130+ kt strike.

[Travorum]

Obviously Melissa has countless other more notable records that have been mentioned today, but here's another one: Melissa has the 8th longest duration as a Category 5 (among the 45 known Cat 5s), spending 1 day 11 hours at that intensity.

Many Cat 5s don't last long before weakening, often due to EWRCs. The two other Cat 5s this year only stayed there for 12 hours or less. Even many impressive Cat 5s, like Milton, Dorian and Maria, lasted a few hours less than Melissa.

The 7 storms that lasted longer than Melissa as Cat 5s are: Cuba 1932, Allen, Irma, Ivan, David, Mitch, and Isabel.

This is especially impressive considering that Melissa had the structural qualities and background conditions necessary to continue on at Category 5 intensity for quite a bit more time had its course not taken it over land. There are so many meteorologically impressive aspects of Melissa but the structural resilience of the storm—with its repeated eyewall mergers in lieu of classical EWRCs—stands out as one of its truly unique characteristics.

[Teban54]

[Category5Kaiju]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/5aW8g2G.gif

I think it's well within reason to say that a Category 4 strike on Cuba is very possible.

[dukeblue219]

105kt FL on the S side of the eyewall. No extrapolated pressure readings.

[CrazyC83]

That would be T6.5 on Dvorak with the current appearance?

We'll see if the winds eventually catch up.

[edu2703]

Back to Cat 4 per NHC

11:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 28
Location: 19.3°N 76.6°W
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[galaxy401]

Interesting, there weren't Cat 4 winds found yet by recon. Probably due to the weaker side being examined and Melissa regaining organization.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting, there weren't Cat 4 winds found yet by recon. Probably due to the weaker side being examined and Melissa regaining organization.

I don't agree with the intensity either. The highest supported by Recon is 100 kt, although due to poor sampling, I'd probably have gone with 105 kt. Pressure is 953 mb based on the latest dropsonde.

[Sciencerocks]

105 knt at flight level with smrf supporting 90knts = probably 95 knots but I'd go at least 100 knots considering the strongest quad hasn't been sampled and with the enhanced organization it is probably strengthening. Maybe strengthen back to a cat4 before cuba none the less.

[ljmac75]

Melissa is exhibiting a classic "what" pattern of intensification where the winds are higher but the pressure is also higher than it was earlier...?

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm Video Update on Hurricane Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIIXBcHk7y4

[sasha_B]

Whatever your thoughts on actual intensity, Melissa's structure and appearance remain stunning. Her eye is clearing out again on IR, with the first positive temperature values in a while. ADT, as you might imagine, is still giving absurd intensity estimates, with raw values back over 7.0 after briefly dipping below 5.5.

[cheezyWXguy]

This thing is remarkably tenacious, trying to build a -80c ring again. Good thing it won’t have time to really get going before impacting Cuba, it’s done enough today.

[Travorum]

Eye temp is back up in the positive (23C on one frame!) although this might go up and down as the CDO continues to redevelop and symmetrize. The AF recon pass also noted an eyewall 16nm in diameter after the last NOAA pass had remarked there was no detectable eyewall on radar. Overall Melissa's structure continues to recover remarkably well, although actual windspeeds are lagging behind (the story of this storm's life).

[Nimbus]

:double:

https://i.imgur.com/5aW8g2G.gif

I think it's well within reason to say that a Category 4 strike on Cuba is very possible.

Melissa is coming back like Charley did in 2004 after crossing Cuba.
Charley got down to 941 mb with cat 4 winds at landfall and a track change to the right.
Guantanamo Cuba forecast is for 40 mph winds currently they may have to raise that.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be holding its intensity right now. Also still no aircraft data to support category 4 - the data supports 100 kt at face value.

[galaxy401]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

[FireRat]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

I hope he's OK, the fact that it was this way with Dorian gives hope he's alright. Really hope the place he rode out the storm in withstood the force of this hurricane!

[tomatkins]

Looks like Melissa has made landfall west of Santiago de Cuba (near Chivirico) at 120 mph/952 mb.

From here it will weaken before it passes through the central Bahamas, then transition to extratropical as it passes west of Bermuda and then maybe into eastern Newfoundland.