NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/ameliaUrquhart_/status/1983432420088258764

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983312966973042943

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1983444957919580340

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1983370099508572606

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983342092048076821

[Nimbus]

Looks like Melissa has made landfall west of Santiago de Cuba (near Chivirico) at 120 mph/952 mb.

From here it will weaken before it passes through the central Bahamas, then transition to extratropical as it passes west of Bermuda and then maybe into eastern Newfoundland.

Weather Underground currently showing 60 knot gusts at Antonio Maceo airport Santiago.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/cu ... wx_pwsdash

They use ASOS transmission with the older AWOS for airports but some more knowledgeable storm2k members
said this is just fake data. Since there isn't any Metar history available I'll leave this as questionable.

At least this wasn't the catastrophic landfall she made in Jamaica.

People had time to evacuate there some sheltered in place at the fire station which is flat roof concrete.
They will have to relocate like they did after Katrina, so sad

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/nwadeema/status/1983342714986082750

[Nimbus]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983342092048076821

Lots of church busses in the area they could have evacuated people up B6.

They need something for their spirit.

"But whatever were gains to me I now consider loss for the sake of Christ. What is more, I consider everything a loss because of the surpassing worth of knowing Christ Jesus my Lord, for whose sake I have lost all things".

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/1983302755763814409

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/AZStormChase/status/1983377664795660681

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/Ham_BklynWx/status/1983416081105506491

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983489301666259158

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1983327057045299703

[syfr]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

Kind of surprising given that all one should need is a car battery and the Starlink

[Stellar]

Both the AF and NOAA hurricane hunters took a beating on their last passes through Melissa yesterday...does anyone have further information on the crews and planes today?

[jconsor]

Severe damage in Montego Bay: https://x.com/rj_smith_3/status/1983506193994666304

[ATDoel]

No update yet from Josh Morgerman. Hope he's doing fine over there. Not surprising though since the whole area is in complete blackout. He went silent for days too back during Dorian.

Kind of surprising given that all one should need is a car battery and the Starlink

yeah it is, I don't think he had starlink back in 2019. As bad as it was in Black River, where Josh was was even worse. He was about 4 miles west and got the absolute worst part of the hurricane, he couldn't have picked a more extreme location if he tried. I'm worried about him and that entire community, I've heard nothing coming out of Crawford yet.

[TheWisestofAll]

About that most recent sonde. (OB06 from NOAA mission 23)

Sondes have momentary winds, not 1 minute sustained.

I was looking up information about interpreting the two things mentioned below yesterday:
https://i.imgur.com/V6kfck3.jpeg

From:
https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/file ... nan-sm.pdf



Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 210° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 192 knots (221 mph)

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 195° (from the SSW)
- Wind Speed: 188 knots (216 mph)



192 * 0.8 = 153.6 knots = 177 mph based on mean boundary level
188 * 0.83 = 156.04 knots = 179 mph based on lowest 150 meters

So that sonde is in line with the 180mph wind.

I know someone who has been researching wind reduction values based on the last 40 years of sonde data, and so far their conclusions is that the reduction value varies depending on the current strengthening/weakening state of the storm. For strengthening storms or ones that efficiently mix winds like Melissa, the reduction could be as high as .95-.99. It's still a work in progress, but that's what they've found so far.

[Teban54]

Loop from Jamaica landfall to its current state in Cuba:

[ATDoel]

Loop from Jamaica landfall to its current state in Cuba:

https://i.imgur.com/rpBKEw4.gif

It's really going to be interesting to see how quickly it can reorganize again after Cuba. Those are real mountain ranges on the eastern side of Cuba that it just went over.