NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[PavelGaborik10]

In the eyewall Montego Bay

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R27gedc9V1s

Looks super strong, but definitely nowhere near what the most battered areas got as the peak came ashore, those areas have been completely flattened.

[Travorum]

Here's an overview of Melissa's structural evolution as it crossed over Jamaica and Cuba as shown in microwave imagery. You can see how the inner core actually managed to survive with its structure intact, but the land interaction precipitated the outer band developing into a secondary eyewall of sorts. I'm not sure but this might be because the outer bands in the NE were over water before the core was, I recall those bands producing deep convection right as Melissa cleared Jamaica. You can then see the mountains in Cuba finally destroy the inner core's structure and those outer bands/proto-secondary eyewall begin to contract down and form the new, broader core that's open in the SE/SW.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983622189057503456

Lots of debris and some damaged roofs but most of the walls are standing. That’s what happens when you build with concrete. Florida take note.

[Ubuntwo]

Among the worst damage I have seen in any hurricane. This is gut wrenching.
 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1983650175358042222

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/weatherdak/status/1983629157381894297

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/weatherdak/status/1983629157381894297

Details here

https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/weath ... ovortices/

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1983282541944607176

[Travorum]

This is a great summary of the entirety of Melissa's lifespan up to Cuba:

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1983658518277451813

[cheezyWXguy]

 https://x.com/weatherdak/status/1983629157381894297

Details here

https://satlib.cira.colostate.edu/weath ... ovortices/

Wow I’ve never seen a view like this where the pov is fixed to the mesos before. Feel like I’m in a washing machine.

[cheezyWXguy]

Here's an overview of Melissa's structural evolution as it crossed over Jamaica and Cuba as shown in microwave imagery. You can see how the inner core actually managed to survive with its structure intact, but the land interaction precipitated the outer band developing into a secondary eyewall of sorts. I'm not sure but this might be because the outer bands in the NE were over water before the core was, I recall those bands producing deep convection right as Melissa cleared Jamaica. You can then see the mountains in Cuba finally destroy the inner core's structure and those outer bands/proto-secondary eyewall begin to contract down and form the new, broader core that's open in the SE/SW.

https://i.imgur.com/reocRoo.jpeg	https://i.imgur.com/O0xRIfq.jpeg	https://i.imgur.com/8meDGXd.png
https://i.imgur.com/xM89kcc.jpeg	https://i.imgur.com/T6Zbqcx.png	https://i.imgur.com/2mDxT1p.jpeg

It’s pretty amazing how well Melissa’s core was able to maintain over the maintains of Jamaica despite how much the surface circulation must have been impeded at that time. This hurricane needs to be studied extensively for a number of reasons, including this one. It’s fortunate that Melissa had so little time over water before making second landfall in Cuba, it’s scary to think how much it might have rebounded with another 24 hours given a structure like that.

[Sanibel]

The scenes of devastation coming in from Black River and St Elizabeth are incredible...Definitely category 5...

[aspen]

Even in its lackluster state, this system’s ability to generate deep convection is pretty impressive.

Yep, as soon as the sun goes down, she’s putting out CDG cloud tops. I don’t recall another system responding to DMAX with this consistency and magnitude before.

[PavelGaborik10]

I'm not sure I've ever seen such horrific wind damage from a hurricane in my life time.

It looks like a damn Ef 4 tornado ripped through St. Elizabeth

[Kazmit]

It’s probably around 90 knots now. Cat 3 is on the table. Those peak winds are farrr east of the center.

[LarryWx]

I'm not sure I've ever seen such horrific wind damage from a hurricane in my life time.

It looks like a damn Ef 4 tornado ripped through St. Elizabeth

Was Andrew’s wind damage similar?

[LarryWx]

Regarding Josh, this is a Floyd Green tweet from 9:03PM:

“Ran into @iCyclone today in Black River.
Commended him for his approach.”

https://x.com/floydgreenja/status/1983701263792718082?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1983710806958322149

[Ptarmigan]

The scenes of devastation coming in from Black River and St Elizabeth are incredible...Definitely category 5...

Looks like they got bombed.

[sasha_B]

It's not entirely a given that the NHC will upgrade to Category 2 at 03z given the limited support from recon & the fact that ADT estimates remain next to useless with how far they've been running ahead of Melissa's observed intensity. On the other hand, they did forecast some reintensification between 29 October 21z and 30 October 18z, and that appears to be taking place - even a "possibly generous" 90 kt estimate on the next advisory wouldn't be far beyond expectations.

[PavelGaborik10]

I'm not sure I've ever seen such horrific wind damage from a hurricane in my life time.

It looks like a damn Ef 4 tornado ripped through St. Elizabeth

Was Andrew’s wind damage similar?

My guess is Jamaica has much better quality structures than pre-Andrew Florida.

Still, I don't think I've seen structures flattened by winds quite to this extent, especially given context.

I have zero doubt that there were stronger gusts on land from Melissa vs Andrew.