NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Nimbus]

For anyone interested, here’s an updated stormchaser Jeff P. (with his host) livestream link from Ground Zero. This is from decimated Black River on the coast. Jeff was just saying they need helicopters there ASAP because there are a whole lot of folks who are injured and need to be airlifted to a hospital:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eXN7D6JdSPI

"All but three hospitals across Jamaica remain open and are operating in emergency mode, while all health centres remain closed, the Ministry of Health and Wellness said Wednesday. "While hospitals remain open, they continue to operate in emergency mode to provide critical and life-saving care only."

That is normally only a couple hours up B6 from Black River but its all forested and probably impassable from tree falls now. Doctors riding in on dirt bikes with some medical gear to set up a mobile site was mentioned.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Seems like despite the 114 kt FL they’re remaining at 90 kt. Good call because the mixing seems to be pretty bad which means the standard .9 reduction factor doesn’t apply here, and probably more like .85 or something a bit lower.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Seems like despite the 114 kt FL they’re remaining at 90 kt. Good call because the mixing seems to be pretty bad which means the standard .9 reduction factor doesn’t apply here, and probably more like .85 or something a bit lower.

114*0.85 = 97 knots. Cat 3.

Just saying.

They reduced from FL by 0.78. Seems aggressive.

[sasha_B]

Melissa really does appear to be deteriorating now. I'm inclined to agree with others here that there was a Category 3 "post-Cuba peak", but I suspect it was early this morning....further reinintensification seems unlikely in light of the diminishing favourability (along multiple metrics) of environmental conditions.

[Kazmit]

Seems like despite the 114 kt FL they’re remaining at 90 kt. Good call because the mixing seems to be pretty bad which means the standard .9 reduction factor doesn’t apply here, and probably more like .85 or something a bit lower.

114*0.85 = 97 knots. Cat 3.

Just saying.

They reduced from FL by 0.78. Seems aggressive.

Agreed. Both HAFS models, which performed excellently with Melissa's intensity, bring Melissa to 105-110 kts this afternoon.

[aspen]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

Recurving, somewhat disheveled systems influenced by a trough like this tend to have worse FL-to-surface conversion rates. I remember something similar with either Humberto ‘19 or Isaias ‘20.

Humberto ‘19 actually developed a sting jet that made it more powerful than it otherwise would have been.

Okay then it was Isaias I was thinking of. I believe that had a few 100+ kt FL measurements that didn’t translate to the surface efficiently.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DRmetwatch/status/1983991745529704467

[Jr0d]

Its been a long week and still Melissa has yet to hit Bermuda as her finalle.

I was in shock when I saw the pressure and winds Tuesday. Maybe in the future with atorms like this we can have a separate thread dedicated to documenting the storm destruction and recovery efforts.

I have seen evidence of trees being debarked already with relatively limited pictures from "ground zero". I imagine this will be widespread. In the past with extreme hurricanes this only happens over a small area. Andrew and Michael are storms where this was documented but over a relatively small area.

[Nuno]

Definitely a MH again- don't know why the NHC didn't upgrade it at 8am.

Email them and ask.

Who would be best to reach out and ask?

[Kazmit]

A shame the Bermuda radar is down.