ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 60% in 7 days.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[zzzh]

We have a closed circulation. Not sure if it is elongated or not due to partial pass.

[cycloneye]

At this 00z BT data, it has moved more WNW.

AL, 97, 2025081000, , BEST, 0, 112N, 189W, 25, 1006, DB

[AnnularCane]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1954345657239748889



Sorry, I don't know how to post the whole thing.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/XEtqMTp.png
We have a closed circulation. Not sure if it is elongated or not due to partial pass.

Gotta give props to the GFS for picking up on the quick establishment of a circulation shortly after splashdown.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1954345657239748889



Sorry, I don't know how to post the whole thing.

Fixed it and now it shows up. Andy agrees about a good circulation there.

[cycloneye]

Deep convection is popping up near the circulation and it looks like is slowly organizing. I would not be surprised if there is a TS Watch or even a TS warning for the Cabo Verde Islands.

[cycloneye]

Is quite evident that it has been moving NW and it looks to be organizing. The Cabo Verde Islands will get a good deal of squally weather from this.

[abajan]

8 AM:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave located just to the southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday across the
Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

If you look clossely, there is a slight curve at the end of cone.

[TampaWxLurker]

Me waking up this morning and seeing the NHC already up to 80%:

[WeatherBoy2000]

How much this develops in the short term is going to depend on how much it pivots north before heading west in the next day or so. Further north would mean less development due to lower ssts and more stability.

[cycloneye]

Big jump to the north at 12z Best Track, and also the winds are up to 30kt.

AL, 97, 2025081012, , BEST, 0, 140N, 201W, 30, 1006, LO

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance
located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL97).

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Updated: Recently received satellite-derived wind data indicate
that a well-defined low pressure system has formed about midway
between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands with
maximum winds of about 35 mph. Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity still lacks some organization, only a small
increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a
tropical depression before the low moves near or across the Cabo
Verde Islands tonight and on Monday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday
across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter
portion of this week while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[mcheer23]

Special TWO issued, 97L is now 40/80.

[tropicwatch]

Might take awhile for convection to get organized. There is some pretty dense SAL in the neighborhood

[zzzh]

[TampaWxLurker]

https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png

Looking pretty healthy already.

[ouragans]

https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png

It's closed

[StormWeather]

https://i.imgur.com/qzRokcW.png

Looking pretty healthy already.

Don’t think I’d ever say this but; the GFS might have been right for once (for how quickly it spun up)