NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[kevin]

Recon found the eye at 16.0N/75.0W so 0.6 degrees east of the latest forecast position. Seems like the strong convection to the east has pushed or relocated the center a bit to that side. Not sure whether this will have a significant impact on the track. All models are now trending a lot more SW (many even south of Jamaica) in the 06z cycle. But of course they don't have this slightly more eastern center.

Edit: now that I check, HAFS-A actually initializes at 75.1W and is even the most southern solution (about 2.5 degrees south of Jamaica) in the 06z cycle.

[GCANE]

Looks like recon puts it at 16N 75W about 35 nm east of forecast track


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... ELISSA.png

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... /track.png

[GCANE]

Shear beginning to slowly dissipate

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... wg8sht.GIF

A big slug of high TPW air in the EPAC is trying to make its way around the Costa Rica mountains.
Should make its way through Panama in the next 24 hrs and into Melissa around Sunday.
IMHO, it is likely Melissa will strengthen then and makes it way to Jamaica.
At that point, more high TPW air will move in from the EPAC thru Honduras.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5


RI will likely occur during this time causing the eye to shrink to a pinhole.
MSLP will likely approach 900mb.
Strengthening will depend in large part on the position of the anticyclone at that time.
It is difficult to forecast, but it is likely to be very closing due to the retrograding of the trough.

About 24hrs after that, an EWRC is very likely to occur.

Looking very bad for Jamaica.
Cuba maybe spared the brunt of this due to a possible EWRC underway as Melissa approaches landfall during that time.

[GCANE]

Chances starting to look better for this to reform around 15N 74.5W sometime during the day today.
In fact recon is heading there now.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1981679671142912422

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1981670510464254253

[chaser1]

Chances starting to look better for this to reform around 15N 74.5W sometime during the day today.
In fact recon is heading there now.

That's what i'm seeing too. Looks to be forming around 14.8N & 74.3 W

[chaser1]

Perhaps an initial heading of roughly 160° or SSE at about 5 mph. Maybe it'll do a counterclockwise loop today before back to a west to WSW motion tomorrow

[GCANE]

Looks like recon didn't want to get close to that hot tower.

[GCANE]

Holy crap, I just saw they measured near 80mm/hr rain rate near that tower.
About the strongest I have ever seen.
Rapid core heating is underway.
Shear reduction is having a big effect.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... series.png

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Rooting for a LLC re-location south personally. The more this thing gets away from Jamacia the better.

[GCANE]

14.95N 74.45W looking real good.
Top-end rain rate.
Persistent cirrus outflow with stacking and radial fingers.

[AutoPenalti]

14.95N 74.45W looking real good.
Top-end rain rate.
Persistent cirrus outflow with stacking and radial fingers.

Isn't this where they tagged the center?

[Teban54]

Has anyone been keeping track of how many reformations Melissa had?

[GCANE]

Feeder band forming from just north of Panama into the system.
Getting a lot of juice from the EPAC.
Can see more of that moist air being blocked by the Costa Rica mountains and moving south towards Panama.
Will likely move across Panama late today or tomorrow and then into Melissa late this weekend.
Highly likely Melissa will RI after that.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[GCANE]

14.95N 74.45W looking real good.
Top-end rain rate.
Persistent cirrus outflow with stacking and radial fingers.

Isn't this where they tagged the center?

They tagged it very close to 16N 75W.
But it looks like it is walking its way down to the hot tower.

[aspen]

Rooting for a LLC re-location south personally. The more this thing gets away from Jamacia the better.

That jog to the east on recon might unfortunately raise the odds of a Jamaica landfall.

[GCANE]

Starting to see a warm-core signature on IR at 14.95N 74.45W

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's getting hard to see what is movement and what is caused by shear

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/JimCantore/status/1981721025101316325