ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[Teban54]

In the last 12 hours Erin has intensified from 70 kt to 115 kt and a 45 mb pressure drop. As far as I know this is pretty much unprecedented in the open MDR. Most ERIs take place in the WCar or Gulf (Wilma, Milton). Even Beryl only has a 30kt wind increase in 12 hours, while Erin has intensified by 45 kt in the same time period. She's gonna be one for the history books. Let's all hope that the models are right and this avoids all land.

Edit: the only hurricane I can think of that has exceeded Erin in terms of ERI in the open MDR is Lee which had a 50 kt increase in 12 hours. Even though that might also be beaten if Erin keeps going like this.

And to think that this happened in a year that had the reputation of a "cool" MDR... Or at least nowhere near as warm as what Lee had to work with.

[GCANE]

Probability for a Cat5 is now at 60%.
With this RI, I think we get an EWRC before that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

MSLP down to 942mb. Rapid intensification is continuing.

[kevin]

Another pass by NOAA2.

Minimum extrapolated pressure = 942.6 mb with 19 kt wind nearby -> 941 mb
Peak FL wind = 137 kt -> 123 kt estimate at the surface

Based on this I'd put Erin's current intensity at 941mb/125kt.

[TheDreamTraveler]

A very noticable jog to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/rDVIoNA.gif

I thought she was moving WNW. That looks like a steady due West movement. Not even wobbling or stair stepping. I'm assuming the WNW movement should resume but that's a bit concerning the farther west and south this stays the more likely there may be slight impacts from the outside edges of Erin in the Outer Banks

[kevin]

Ignore the archer positioning, but this ADT estimate image shows the current location of Erin compared to the forecast location (blue square). Clearly going SW of the forecast the last few hours, but still too soon to say whether it's just a wobble or more than that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A very noticable jog to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/rDVIoNA.gif

I thought she was moving WNW. That looks like a steady due West movement. Not even wobbling or stair stepping. I'm assuming the WNW movement should resume but that's a bit concerning the farther west and south this stays the more likely there may be slight impacts from the outside edges of Erin in the Outer Banks

There's actually a bit of a southerly component to its movement. I doubt it changes the long-term synopsis very much, although could get closer to the Bahamas.

[HurricaneIrma]

You updated advisory at 5:50 this morning located in at 19.7 as a 5:00 a.m. this morning it was located in 19.8 but as of 2:00 a.m. this morning it was back to 19.7 so with that said is it potentially wobbling or drifting slightly Southward of Due West?

[GCANE]

Last down-looking radar estimate at 10:23Z also showing south of forecast track.
Should get an eye drop from Kermit very soon.
Last drop showed a small inversion at 870mb.
Watching if this develops more on the current drop which would indicate an EWRC may be developing.

[GCANE]

Going to be about 19.55N 61.83W
Even farther south of forecast track.
I would say not a wobble.

[kevin]

Going to be about 19.55N 61.83W
Even farther south of forecast track.
I would say not a wobble.

Agreed that the deviation is starting to become significant, the coordinates you mention indicate WSW for the last 3 hours. While steering currents will still largely be the same, the enormous discrepancy between Erin's true intensity and the modelled intensity initialization in the 06z runs also makes it difficult to trust that model cycle. The coming hours and the subsequent 12z cycle will hopefully give greater confidence in Erin's forecast track.

[Nimbus]

Ignore the archer positioning, but this ADT estimate image shows the current location of Erin compared to the forecast location (blue square). Clearly going SW of the forecast the last few hours, but still too soon to say whether it's just a wobble or more than that.

https://i.imgur.com/zV6OU4s.gif

The RI Erin did overnight blew a lot of outflow into the ridge to her north a little earlier than forecast.
ICON model had the strongest system with enough ridge that tracked dangerously close to the Carolinas.
Common feedback issue that can change the track of major hurricanes, so we need to watch the model runs.

[REDHurricane]

Pretty cool to see Erin still sucking in that ITCZ moisture through a straw that's hundreds of miles long:

[weeniepatrol]

Very normal August 16th MDR activity here yes

[GCANE]

Kermit VDM tags it at 19.54N 61.84W

[kevin]

Look how close the AF308 plane is to the eye and the pressure is still only ~1000mb with 44 kt FL winds. The pressure gradient near the eye must be incredible.

[HurricaneIrma]

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 60.6W

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 61.1W

5:50am update. LOCATION...19.6N 61.5W

[REDHurricane]

518 posts currently in this thread... I bet that'll be doubled by the end of today lol

[GCANE]

One notable thing that the models haven't picked up on is the ULL at 28N 41W.
This is a big factor in the deviation of strengthening and may play into the deviation of track forecast.

[Woofde]

518 posts currently in this thread... I bet that'll be doubled by the end of today lol

She's going to be putting on quite the show the next few days. Just wait till she hits ~27N, there's an SST hotpot there, Cat 5 very possible.