NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Teban54]

I'm starting to get scared now, NHC has 140 mph over Jamaica on the cone

The NHC forecast is as close to as them saying "we think Melissa will hit Jamacia as a Category 5" as they will say for a system for that's only a tropical storm.

Even when just going by what's explicitly in the forecast, it also has Melissa at 135 kts for 12 hours (60-72h), and the next forecast point 12 hours later (96h) is already inland over Jamaica (albeit just barely). Melissa can adhere to this forecast precisely while still peaking at Cat 5, or even landfallint in Jamaica as such, during any of this 24-hour period.

Edit: Weakening just before landfall is also not always a good thing. Maria's last-minute EWRC prior to hitting Puerto Rico, while avoiding a Cat 5 landfall for meteorological records, made its impacts arguably much worse.

[Teban54]

[Sanibel]

Strengthening Dvorak...Increase in spiral shape...

[Iceresistance]

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3dl1.gif

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WeathermanAAA_/status/1981831269282619830

It's also worth noting that this projection ties for one of the most aggressive intensification rates ever issued for a 55kt system, reaching the record maximum percentile for hours 12-48.

(Note that I believe this record only considers systems whose initial intensity on the advisory was exact 55 kt, not even 50 or 60, etc.)

[Hurricane Mike]

5:30pm video on Melissa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9Z-otdemj8

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've decided that we are moving the curse of the "I" storm to the "M" storms

[Iceresistance]

Oh that's... bad


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3duf.jpg

[al78]

How resiliant is the infrastructure on Jamaica to hurricanes in general? I appreciate very little other than solid concrete structures are going to withstand cat 5 winds. I'm wondering if Jamaica increased its resiliance after Gilbert in a similar manner to how Florida upped its building codes after Andrew.

[Sciencerocks]

[kevin]

First pass found 991.3 mb extrapolated.

[Beef Stew]

I’ll preface this by saying: this has the potential to be a nightmare situation for Jamaica, and I hope that any and all preparation is being made for what very well may end up being the most intense landfall on the island in recorded history. I’m hoping that this isn’t the case, and that all in Melissa’s path are as sheltered as possible in the coming days.

Meteorologically speaking, I find few things more fascinating than watching the current evolution of Melissa: one of a cyclone that’s been continuously decoupled and disrupted by shear that finally finds a pocket of environmental favorability. As we’re seeing in real time, the limitations appear to be fully off now, and, barring something unexpected, I don’t see anything in the near future that is going to put much of a ceiling on this storm from becoming another historic WCar monster. If there’s anything that’s been a central theme this season, it’s that every significant hurricane has exploded when given the chance- and I suspect the RI we’re going to see from Melissa will be something potentially extraordinary. Godspeed to all in her path.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Melissa has that look Milton had last year before it went nuclear... my guess is the HAFS estimates were accurate. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a hurricane before midnight.

[CrazyC83]

The big question is...when is it really go time? At some point, it's likely we're going to see outrageous intensification.

[weeniepatrol]

The big question is...when is it really go time? At some point, it's likely we're going to see outrageous intensification.

Probably right now. It’s already a 3-4 mb drop in just a couple of hours. We will of course likely see even faster pressure drops soon, but even this current rate qualifies.

[Keldeo1997]

Eye drop coming though....

[aspen]

Welp. There’s a tight inner core already.

Jamaica needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario immediately. I can believe the government briefing was trying to downplay a likely Cat 4/5 landfall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Amazing how quickly this thing started taking off when the shear dropped. Very bad sign.

[WaveBreaking]

[ljmac75]

Pretty good estimate at 5 PM, 995 mbar, a little bit of deepening since then.