NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Woofde]

Welp. There’s a tight inner core already.

Jamaica needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario immediately. I can believe the government briefing was trying to downplay a likely Cat 4/5 landfall.

Yeah it's off to the races for Melissa now I fear. That gradient is pretty tight and could get going fast. A slowdown would require shear to return which is only expected to continue relaxing.

[weeniepatrol]

VDM:

D. 993 mb
E. 225 deg 3 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. E17/36/18

[cycloneye]

Oh boy, Jamaica. A prayer for them.

 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1981855179982139877

[Kazmit]

Welp. There’s a tight inner core already.

Jamaica needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario immediately. I can believe the government briefing was trying to downplay a likely Cat 4/5 landfall.

I’m guessing that’s because of how uncertain the track forecast has been the last few days. Still, at this point it’s pretty damn likely we do see a landfall.

[Teban54]

Oh boy, Jamaica. A prayer for them.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1981855179982139877

I'll also add that:

• A few more recent high-profile storms since Gilbert were originally expected to hit Jamaica but ultimately dodged it, most notably Ivan and Beryl. Even among weather fans in the US context, this has sometimes created the impression of a "Jamaica shield". I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened locally.
• As seen in the tweet, most major hurricanes passing close to Jamaica move east to west. But Melissa is now expected to move SW to NE, putting the strongest quadrant for winds and surge directly through the island.

[Nimbus]

VDM:

D. 993 mb
E. 225 deg 3 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. E17/36/18

That fix was above 16N again 8pm update could say its almost stationary or will they say its moving NNW at 3 knots?

Edit to add the next recon mission looks to be flying in at this angle so maybe the tail radar already established a track change?

[cheezyWXguy]

Guess my earlier guess was too bold after all, Melissa is not yet a hurricane. It won’t make much difference though, that threshold will be crossed overnight and beyond that there won’t be anything to hold Melissa back. Glad it’s the weekend because I don’t know how much sleep I’m going to get watching this over the next couple days.

[zzzh]

Still needs to work on the structure

[Nuno]

Josh still not ready to go out as he keeps analyzing where will be best for him to do the chase.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1981785313417593220

I'm guessing Cuba, since there's less uncertainty that it will have direct impacts there.

He really shouldn't. Cuba evacuates residents directly in the path of such strong storms. The cuban highway doesnt even reach the part of cuba that is predicted to be impacted. There's very little fuel and resources in cuba, it just seems like an awful idea. I hope he doesnt go there.

[Teban54]

Looks like Melissa's pressure has mostly been holding steady at ~993 mb during the 3 recon passes from two different planes, and wind hasn't picked up either. The LLC is also at the NW corner of the deepest convection, so there may still be some shear present.

We're probably not seeing RI just yet... Even though it will come soon enough.

[cycloneye]

Looks like Melissa's pressure has mostly been holding steady at ~993 mb during the 3 recon passes from two different planes, and wind hasn't picked up either. The LLC is also at the NW corner of the deepest convection, so there may still be some shear present.

We're probably not seeing RI just yet... Even though it will come soon enough.

Also there may be still some tilt captured by the TSR.

.

[Beef Stew]

My comment about RI appearing imminent seems to have been premature- there still is some structural organization yet to be completed before Melissa can truly take off. That being said, I’d be shocked if she’s not primed and ready to go by the morning.

[MarioProtVI]

Tilt is actually increasing on the latest pass. Probably won’t see a hurricane until tomorrow afternoon as as RI should start then. Still a lot of work needed to be done to the low level core.

[CrazyC83]

Tilt is actually increasing on the latest pass. Probably won’t see a hurricane until tomorrow afternoon as as RI should start then. Still a lot of work needed to be done to the low level core.

Agreed. I can't see it becoming more than a low-end category 1 in the near term as it still has a bit of shear to contend with. But it's getting closer...

[Blown Away]

I don’t think it would take much over the next 72 hours for the core of Melissa to slide just E of Jamaica. JMHO

[cheezyWXguy]

Tilt is actually increasing on the latest pass. Probably won’t see a hurricane until tomorrow afternoon as as RI should start then. Still a lot of work needed to be done to the low level core.

Yep, more work than I would have guessed earlier based on its appearance. Still, the fact that it managed to shed about 10mb today while getting its core together is rather impressive. Kind of reminds me of Ian before it took off when it was in the Caribbean. Delayed start, but more than made up for it, so people better not sleep on this thing.

[HurricaneBelle]

Surprised there isn't a Hurricane Warning for Jamaica. Guess it's a timing thing?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Oh boy, Jamaica. A prayer for them.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1981855179982139877

I'll also add that:

• A few more recent high-profile storms since Gilbert were originally expected to hit Jamaica but ultimately dodged it, most notably Ivan and Beryl. Even among weather fans in the US context, this has sometimes created the impression of a "Jamaica shield". I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened locally.
• As seen in the tweet, most major hurricanes passing close to Jamaica move east to west. But Melissa is now expected to move SW to NE, putting the strongest quadrant for winds and surge directly through the island.

Emily 2005 as well

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/ht7ukn6.png
Still needs to work on the structure

I was gonna say it doesn't look nearly as good as it did a couple of hours ago

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like Melissa found the "favorable" 10-knot wind shear pocket after days of being hit with 15-30 knots