ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[GCANE]

PR may see some significant weather out of this.
A track to the west and possibly at the end of an EWRC.

[Kazmit]

Holy… TS yesterday, potential cat 5 today. Unreal for the open Atlantic in mid-August. Those SSTs are HOT.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow wasn’t expecting to wake up to it this far along. Microwave does show a band wrapping around the core but I think the current eyewall will hold for bit. Looks quite stable on satellite with little wobbling, no double wind max yet. That eye dropsonde with the perfect v down to the surface is beautiful - not quite as extreme as Dorian’s but that was the first thing I thought of.

[GCANE]

Biggest feeder band is straight west of the COC.
IMHO, PR is in for very heavy flooding.

[aspen]

Stopped looking at this for barely over an hour and now it’s down to the mid-low 930s. Insane for mid-August in the MDR.

I have to wonder how much longer this W to WSW motion will last, and how much further west the track may shift. It’s going to be quite a close call for everybody.

[GCANE]

Very heavy, persistent lightning on the SW eyewall

[kevin]

Another pass by NOAA2.

Center location = 19.55N, 62.10W
Minimum extrapolated pressure = 931.9 mb with 4 kt wind nearby -> 931 mb
Peak FL wind = 143 kt -> 129 kt estimate at the surface

I'd say 931mb/130kt.

[GCANE]

Kermit reports at 12:07Z 19.55N 62.1W 931.9mb extrap

[GCANE]

Big fail on the models, across the board.

[GCANE]

Big fail on the models, across the board.

Every year it seems to be getting worse and worse.
Who TF programs this sh*t?
Now they are doing AI.

[Jr0d]

Big fail on the models, across the board.

Let's hope its just the intensity that they failed at and this will not directly hit and populated landmass.

[cheezyWXguy]

Big fail on the models, across the board.

It’s not too often even the hafs undersell the intensity, although I think some of the earlier runs might have been close? Didn’t follow the models too closely on this one. Really curious what track implications these recent developments will have.

[GCANE]

Big fail on the models, across the board.

Every year it seems to be getting worse and worse.
Who TF programs this sh*t?
Now they are doing AI.

Worst part is they are spending big money for this crap.
OK, I am done ranting.

[NDG]

Is just crazy how fast Erin has strengthened in just 10 hours specially the last few hours. Many were calling for a slow MDR this year, this is evidence that it doesn’t have to be record-breaking warm MDR to produce major hurricanes. It all needs the right atmospheric conditions & warm enough waters, we see this all the time in the EPAC. Another example was last year considering how warm the MDR was it really didn’t produce that many storms.

[cycloneye]

AL, 05, 2025081612, , BEST, 0, 196N, 621W, 130, 934, HU

[WaveBreaking]

Another "true" color image of Erin I just made. I think I got the colors mixed better this time.

[ronjon]

Big fail on the models, across the board.

Let's hope its just the intensity that they failed at and this will not directly hit and populated landmass.

Well in all fairness to numerical models, RI is still difficult to predict with our current technology. On track guidance, the Euro exactly one week ago predicted Erin's position today. One model that did seize on the intensity was the ICON with a predicted low pressure of 905-908 mb in a few days. Erin is in the low 930s now, we'll see if that comes true.

[cheezyWXguy]

Big fail on the models, across the board.

Every year it seems to be getting worse and worse.
Who TF programs this sh*t?
Now they are doing AI.

Worst part is they are spending big money for this crap.
OK, I am done ranting.

The entirety of NOAA’s annual funding is 0.2% of the annual budget, of which models would be a subset. I don’t think this is the issue, but would be open to seeing which metrics you’re looking at that show decreased model performance on an annual basis. This is probably better discussed in a talking tropics thread though.

[GCANE]

San Juan radar

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_ ... MC42fX0%3D

[BobHarlem]

Can faintly see the eye on San Juan radar now (extremely long range here, so I'm amazed it shows at all)