NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#561 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 25, 2025 4:34 am

 https://x.com/Mike__Gagliardi/status/1981858838337949838

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#562 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 25, 2025 4:42 am

Dry air from the bottom of the trof is quickly being filled in with moist air.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#563 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 25, 2025 4:48 am

GCANE wrote:Dry air from the bottom of the trof is quickly being filled in with moist air.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

Classic Fall setup, look at the flow working on the system keeping it pinned. This was a blockbuster Gulf system two weeks late.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#564 Postby ronjon » Sat Oct 25, 2025 5:49 am

Definitely moving west now. Incredibly cold cloud tops in CDO. She should RI today.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#565 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 25, 2025 5:54 am

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 68kt at 10:47z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 985.3mb at 10:50z
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#566 Postby Nimbus » Sat Oct 25, 2025 6:15 am

ronjon wrote:Definitely moving west now. Incredibly cold cloud tops in CDO. She should RI today.


Recon mission is checking this morning, flying west near 16.18N
Both 00z GFS and ECM have her gaining a little more latitude before a WSW slide into the blue mountains.
Only the UKMET is still showing a hook NE over western Jamaica and that is as the weak storm outlier.
100 year flood map could help officials with evacuation but Jamaican politics being what they are.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#567 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Oct 25, 2025 6:25 am

A bit easier to see on radar this morning. (note the mountains cut off angles of the radar there)
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#568 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 6:27 am

This is going to be just an easy heavy system ( assuming due to westerly shear) that the hurricane could make landfall in east/ central Jamaica and barely impacts west Jamaica. Meanwhile in these scenarios even Haiti gets hammered with rain bands
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#569 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:19 am

Significant improvement over the time of this loop. Assuming no more hiccups, a hurricane at the 11am EDT advisory seems like a given.

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#570 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:21 am

Should be a hurricane later this morning.

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#571 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:21 am

Big improvement this morning at TDR from last nights mission.

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#572 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:29 am

A very rough couple of days and weeks ahead for our friends in the Caribbean. There haven't been any major track changes so it appears the CONUS will be spared.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#573 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:43 am

The meso floater.

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#574 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:01 am

12z Best Track:
AL, 13, 2025102512, , BEST, 0, 163N, 750W, 60, 982, TS...
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#575 Postby hipshot » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:30 am

abajan wrote:12z Best Track:
AL, 13, 2025102512, , BEST, 0, 163N, 750W, 60, 982, TS...


Isn't that a more westerly track?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#576 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:43 am

hipshot wrote:
abajan wrote:12z Best Track:
AL, 13, 2025102512, , BEST, 0, 163N, 750W, 60, 982, TS...


Isn't that a more westerly track?


She’s hardly been moving as she was at 16.3N, 75.0W at 5AM EDT.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#577 Postby Teban54 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:44 am

Looks to me like dual hot towers are now firing around 16.5N 75.0W, roughly where the center is.

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#578 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:54 am

Of course Melissa stopped from intensifying just when recon gets there
 https://x.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1982077885809914227

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#579 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Oct 25, 2025 8:55 am

The pressure gradient looks a lot tighter on the recon data this morning. Windfield still a little loose but much closer to being axisymmetric. Seems like a good bet that faster intensification will begin in the next few hours.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#580 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Oct 25, 2025 9:11 am

Whole "eye" visible on jamaica radar now

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