ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[CronkPSU]

Finally moving north again.

just for clarification for those newbies and guests...he means more "northerly"...not moving NORTH....it is still definitely W or maybe now WNW

[BobHarlem]

Now closer to northwest movement:

[Hurricane Mike]

What a beautiful monster!

Here is a 12:30pm Video Update on the system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkuHhMXMcPE

[Travorum]

917.3mb extrap, SFMR 154kts and 170kts FL wind: 170kt SFMR and 154kt FL winds:

163630 1947N 06255W 6970 02896 9768 +107 //// 140113 119 097 012 01
163700 1946N 06256W 6975 02814 9702 +105 +105 139135 143 123 018 00
163730 1945N 06258W 6951 02716 9546 +125 //// 140152 154 164 013 01
163800 1945N 06259W 7002 02480 9312 +132 //// 145110 152 170 005 01
163830 1943N 06300W 7183 02208 9214 +207 +125 152038 073 132 011 00
163900 1942N 06301W 7105 02273 9173 +219 +120 198014 025 053 005 00

pretty much steady since last pass on the pressure.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 145 kt for the intensity on that set of data.

[StormWeather]

917.3mb extrap, SFMR 154kts and 170kts FL wind:

163630 1947N 06255W 6970 02896 9768 +107 //// 140113 119 097 012 01
163700 1946N 06256W 6975 02814 9702 +105 +105 139135 143 123 018 00
163730 1945N 06258W 6951 02716 9546 +125 //// 140152 154 164 013 01
163800 1945N 06259W 7002 02480 9312 +132 //// 145110 152 170 005 01
163830 1943N 06300W 7183 02208 9214 +207 +125 152038 073 132 011 00
163900 1942N 06301W 7105 02273 9173 +219 +120 198014 025 053 005 00

What intensity would that support?

[CrazyC83]

917.3mb extrap, SFMR 154kts and 170kts FL wind:

163630 1947N 06255W 6970 02896 9768 +107 //// 140113 119 097 012 01
163700 1946N 06256W 6975 02814 9702 +105 +105 139135 143 123 018 00
163730 1945N 06258W 6951 02716 9546 +125 //// 140152 154 164 013 01
163800 1945N 06259W 7002 02480 9312 +132 //// 145110 152 170 005 01
163830 1943N 06300W 7183 02208 9214 +207 +125 152038 073 132 011 00
163900 1942N 06301W 7105 02273 9173 +219 +120 198014 025 053 005 00

Other way around actually. 154 is the flight level winds. 170 is the (likely bogus) SFMR.

[ElectricStorm]

Think this could be stronger than 140kts even, maybe closer to 145-150kts based on that pass. Incredible performance from Erin the last couple days. Very thankful it's north of the islands.

[CrazyC83]

917.3mb extrap, SFMR 154kts and 170kts FL wind:

163630 1947N 06255W 6970 02896 9768 +107 //// 140113 119 097 012 01
163700 1946N 06256W 6975 02814 9702 +105 +105 139135 143 123 018 00
163730 1945N 06258W 6951 02716 9546 +125 //// 140152 154 164 013 01
163800 1945N 06259W 7002 02480 9312 +132 //// 145110 152 170 005 01
163830 1943N 06300W 7183 02208 9214 +207 +125 152038 073 132 011 00
163900 1942N 06301W 7105 02273 9173 +219 +120 198014 025 053 005 00

What intensity would that support?

If those were accurate, 155 kt. However, they are actually reversed. I'd put it at 145 kt.

[Travorum]

917.3mb extrap, SFMR 154kts and 170kts FL wind:

163630 1947N 06255W 6970 02896 9768 +107 //// 140113 119 097 012 01
163700 1946N 06256W 6975 02814 9702 +105 +105 139135 143 123 018 00
163730 1945N 06258W 6951 02716 9546 +125 //// 140152 154 164 013 01
163800 1945N 06259W 7002 02480 9312 +132 //// 145110 152 170 005 01
163830 1943N 06300W 7183 02208 9214 +207 +125 152038 073 132 011 00
163900 1942N 06301W 7105 02273 9173 +219 +120 198014 025 053 005 00

Other way around actually. 154 is the flight level winds. 170 is the (likely bogus) SFMR.

Ah whoops, I'm rusty

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like they missed by a little bit the eye?

[kevin]

I know SFMR is not used that much anymore, but still 170 kt SFMR is absolutely bonkers. This storm is wilder than Lee imo and rivals the craziness of Beryl and Dorian. Hopefully it stays away from land and will remain a monster to admire from afar.

[aspen]

917.3mb extrap, SFMR 154kts and 170kts FL wind:

163630 1947N 06255W 6970 02896 9768 +107 //// 140113 119 097 012 01
163700 1946N 06256W 6975 02814 9702 +105 +105 139135 143 123 018 00
163730 1945N 06258W 6951 02716 9546 +125 //// 140152 154 164 013 01
163800 1945N 06259W 7002 02480 9312 +132 //// 145110 152 170 005 01
163830 1943N 06300W 7183 02208 9214 +207 +125 152038 073 132 011 00
163900 1942N 06301W 7105 02273 9173 +219 +120 198014 025 053 005 00

pretty much steady since last pass on the pressure.

Looks like this round of RI is done. I’m guessing we may start to see an EWRC start later this afternoon.

[Travorum]

Eye dropsonde has 919mb with 59kts of wind, looks like it did miss the dead center. This could support as low as 912mb, no?

[CrazyC83]

Eye dropsonde has 919mb with 59kts of wind, looks like it did miss the dead center. This could support as low as 912mb, no?

https://i.imgur.com/I1q80ec.png

913 mb would be the central pressure with that reading.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/1956752266016268383

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/Christian1White/status/1956751431538442259

[Hurricaneman]

 https://x.com/Christian1White/status/1956751431538442259

Couldn’t have said it better myself, this was a minimal hurricane this time yesterday and now a 5

[Hurricane2022]

Looks like they missed by a little bit the eye?

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1956765327255306353

[GCANE]

Looks liked this will be an approximate 60 nm wide eye when EWRC finishes.