NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#741 Postby StormWeather » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:16 pm

Iceresistance wrote:You do not see this very often, the MLC and LLC are perfectly stacked

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncI.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncI.png

Omg…just omg.

This thing is literally about to blow its top isn’t it?
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#742 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:19 pm

Nice graphics from Eric on TC Vortex Precession due to upshear

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1982232701521289389

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#743 Postby Keldeo1997 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:20 pm

 https://x.com/PlaysSaheb/status/1982235264530411748

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#744 Postby USTropics » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:24 pm

150 frame loop of Melissa throughout the day:
Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#745 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:25 pm

 https://x.com/xiaoqianWX/status/1982238889201778766

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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#746 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:28 pm

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#747 Postby syfr » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:28 pm



"Strong turbulence in the eyewall appears to be affecting data collection."

And the data collectors, one imagines.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#748 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:30 pm

Looks like when Kermit will be in the eye and look up, it'll see AF301's running lights.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#749 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:30 pm

Another year, another powerhouse, memorable, and unfortunately likely-destructive Atlantic hurricane.

2025 was all fish storms and fun & games, until it wasn't. It really does only take one storm to define a season.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#750 Postby zzzh » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:31 pm

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#751 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:35 pm

NOAA2 just had a 100 knot flight level wind
Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#752 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:NOAA2 just had a 100 knot flight level wind
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png

And no pressure drop at all (?)
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#753 Postby KirbyDude25 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:37 pm

Iceresistance wrote:NOAA2 just had a 100 knot flight level wind
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png

No drop in extrapolated pressure, though. We'll have to wait for the dropsonde, of course, but it seems strange that the pressure hasn't dropped despite Melissa's improved appearance
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#754 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:40 pm

Hurricane2022 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:NOAA2 just had a 100 knot flight level wind
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ncP.png

And no pressure drop at all (?)

Eye drop just came in
Image
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/b3ngM.png
Seems like it's working out on finalizing the structure before it starts to bomb out
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#755 Postby Travorum » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:42 pm

The dropsonde came in at 971mb w/3kts wind, so roughly steady since the last pass interestingly. Also of note that based on the two NOAA passes Melissa seems to be moving SW.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#756 Postby WaveBreaking » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:43 pm

Image
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#757 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:43 pm

Image

8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.5°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.5°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.6N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH


Melissa was not predicted to lose latitude and IMO moving a little faster W than expected.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#758 Postby Travorum » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:45 pm

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5ywz0ywL/goes19-ir-13L-202510252205.gif [/url]

8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.5°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
8:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.5°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 971 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.6N 75.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.7N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 76.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 16.7N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.9N 77.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.8N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 22.0N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 27.0N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH


Melissa was not predicted to lose latitude and IMO moving a little faster W than expected.


The eye dropsonde that just came in actually had the center down a little further at 16.4N, and I agree that W motion today has seemed faster than forecasted.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#759 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:51 pm

With all that data, 90 kt seems the best intensity estimate to me.
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Re: NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

#760 Postby zzzh » Sat Oct 25, 2025 7:53 pm

AL, 13, 2025102600, , BEST, 0, 165N, 757W, 90, 971, HU,
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