ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Looks like it's going to miss the 5am 12 hour forecast position by about 1/10th to .15 of a degree south.

[ljmac75]

Side note did anyone else see the wacky 179 kt at the surface dropsonde? That's like a Dorian-level dropsonde, though the 150 m mean is probably lower.

https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... 31-179-179

[aspen]

Eye looks to be contracting and cooling on recent IR frames. That EWRC is probably starting.

[Cachondo23]

Virgin Islands getting heavy rain right now!

[Teban54]

Erin's current pressure of 915 mb is also the second lowest for an Atlantic hurricane prior to August 16, only behind Allen (899 mb).

Thanks to Wikipedia and this article for alerting me to this record.

[sasha_B]

The eye is definitely contracting, but I don't know about cooling - the fact that it's so small, combined with the viewing angle, may just be preventing GOES from picking up IR measurements of the actual center. Either way, it will be difficult to sustain for long - hard to say whether recon will find central pressure to have fallen or risen when they do their first center pass.

[Iceresistance]

Look at how much is had contracted so much
 https://x.com/MesoHunter_YT/status/1956814724353724832

[Hurrilurker]

If that eye was over land right now...yikes. Erased.

[GCANE]

OK, I am making an educated guess here but the ULL at 38N 52W maybe the main factor which is keeping Erin from moving much north.
CIMSS shows it strengthening,

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined

[otowntiger]

Look at how much is had contracted so much
 https://x.com/MesoHunter_YT/status/1956814724353724832

Wow! Look how mean that eye got in those last couple frames. Narrowed down like someone giving you the evil eye. and kinda scary looking.

[Fancy1002]

I wish the hunters were in the storm right now so we could see how much the eyes has contracted

[Fancy1002]

It’s looking like the inner eye might collapse before they’re able to get in there and see

[Hurricane2000]

I can't tell if it's weakening or not, the eye contraction makes it hard to tell

[CrazyC83]

I suspect around 18Z will go down as the peak intensity. I'm thinking Recon finds a higher pressure and a clearly underway ERC.

[Hurricane2022]

Super Typhoon ERIN.

[sasha_B]

I suspect around 18Z will go down as the peak intensity. I'm thinking Recon finds a higher pressure and a clearly underway ERC.

The NHC implicitly forecasts reintensification after this EWRC, though. Intensity (at least in terms of Vmax) is expected to be at 140 kts at the +12h and +24h forecast points, implying that this may not necessarily be the peak. The discussion suggests "fluctuations" rather than a steady decline in intensity from here, although of course the latter scenario (where Erin never fully recovers) is possible.

[syfr]

5PM NHC moves it a bit more east of the previous release

[syfr]

Certainly some northern component in that loop.

Super Typhoon ERIN.

[abajan]

I suspect around 18Z will go down as the peak intensity. I'm thinking Recon finds a higher pressure and a clearly underway ERC.

The NHC implicitly forecasts reintensification after this EWRC, though. Intensity (at least in terms of Vmax) is expected to be at 140 kts at the +12h and +24h forecast points, implying that this may not necessarily be the peak. The discussion suggests "fluctuations" rather than a steady decline in intensity from here, although of course the latter scenario (where Erin never fully recovers) is possible.

In my experience, whenever NHC starts mentioning stuff like fluctuations in intensity are expected, the cyclone in question has peaked. But I guess there's always the exception. We'll see what happens tonight.

[GCANE]

Already looks like a few miles south of the current forecast track